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Oscars 2021

Predictions

Best Picture

  • Nomadland 4/1
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 6/1
  • Minari 6/1

Best International Film

  • Another Round 31/10
  • Quo Vadis, Aida? 4/1
  • Collective 4/1

Oscars Nominations 2021

Predictions

Best Director

  • Chloe Zhao 16/5
  • David Fincher 9/2
  • Lee Isaac Chung 5/1

Best Actress

  • Carey Mulligan 69/20
  • Viola Davis 4/1
  • Frances McDormand 4/1

Best Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman 16/5
  • Anthony Hopkins 4/1
  • Riz Ahmed 9/2

Best Supporting Actress

  • Yuh-Jung Youn 19/5
  • Olivia Colman 39/10
  • Maria Bakalova 5/1

Best Supporting Actor

  • Daniel Kaluuya 10/3
  • Sacha Baron Cohen 4/1
  • Leslie Odom, Jr. 4/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Nomadland 10/3
  • One Night in Miami 4/1
  • The Father 9/2

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 69/20
  • Promising Young Woman 39/10
  • Minari 9/2
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Kevin Jacobsen

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 20, 2017 at 7:49 am #1202219226

    Has anyone discussed the complete failure of Feud: Bette and Joan? I just find it fascinating that this show racked up double-digit nominations at the main telecast and didn’t win any of them. I did some research and this is the first time a show has received at least 10 nominations on the main show and didn’t win anything since ER in 1997.

    Do we think it would have cleaned up if Big Little Lies weren’t there? I’m assuming at least Jessica Lange would win, but I imagine The Night Of was the runner-up as far as broad support.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 18, 2017 at 6:29 pm #1202217714

    It’s hard to narrow down because I loved so many of them. But Black Mirror’s two wins were the most special to me, because San Junipero is my favorite episode of television all year.

    As far as acting winners, I loved the entirety of Ann Dowd winning, from her shocked look to her grabbing her shawl to her breathless speech. I wouldn’t have voted for her, but it’s hard to complain after a moment like that. I can pretend it was for The Leftovers.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 18, 2017 at 9:03 am #1202217107

    The show itself was a bit disjointed, but I don’t really care about all that as long as the winners are good. And good they were. Not a whole lot of upsets but I’m so happy we can now call Nicole Kidman, Elisabeth Moss, Riz Ahmed, Donald Glover, Ann Dowd, Laura Dern, Reese Witherspoon, Lena Waithe and Charlie Brooker Emmy winners.

    I’m really surprised both Stranger Things and Westworld went home empty-handed after winning five Creative Arts Emmys last week. I guess Casting isn’t necessarily a reliable predictor in some cases. I loved both Stranger Things and The Handmaid’s Tale but I’m glad the more… shall we say, significant show won in the end. Ted Sarandos must be furious that Hulu just won a series award on its first serious year of contention. YIKES. Same goes for Jeff Bezos at Amazon I’d imagine, rough year for them.

    I wish the Sean Spicer thing didn’t happen. Not only is it disgusting to do this unearned redemption tour thing but it’s been so distracting in the coverage of this year and takes away from all the great winners. Stephen Colbert was a fine host. Nothing I’ll remember.

    The only wins I can quibble with are The Voice and Alec Baldwin. I get the Baldwin thing (so one-note, though) but The Voice? Really? After winning nothing at the Creative Arts and RuPaul’s Drag Race winning three including Host, and RuPaul having a segment on the live show, and being so culturally cool? So lazy.

    I’m curious about next year. Game of Thrones is returning, but will The Handmaid’s Tale continue its success? Veep, Master of None and probably Atlanta won’t be there so it’s gonna be fun to see some new wins there!

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 16, 2017 at 11:34 am #1202214424

    Well this should be interesting. I do miss the grouping by genre but there is at least some flow to this, with all the supporting categories being in the first half and the lead ones towards the end. They really seem to be banking on those movie stars, as Atypical said. I don’t necessarily mind Comedy not being second to last because it’s not really that suspenseful, while Limited Series and the two lead acting categories are.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 15, 2017 at 12:01 pm #1202213699

    We’ve got another one!

    Some of the more colorful quotes:

    “The one that I took off right away was Better Call Saul — it’s what I call ‘a why show’ because, even though they’ve had some good episodes, I do not understand why they’re doing it. Did the Breaking Bad universe really need to be expanded? No. This is a show about small people with small problems. I don’t mind one or the other, but both?”

    On This Is Us: “I cried unabashedly at three-quarters of the episodes, and that’s not an easy thing to make me do, especially when the show is constantly being interrupted by stupid car commercials. How do you do that?! The cast is magnificent across the board and the writers aren’t playing on cheap sentiment; they’re dealing with deep stuff. How do we survive as a family? What is our identity in this society? Who are we? I never missed an episode. It’s the first network show that I’ve voted for since The Good Wife. I was so happy to vote for it.”

    “I next eliminated another show that I have voted for in the past, Silicon Valley, which is just covering the same old ground — the stories are repetitive, the characters are not that interesting anymore, I haven’t felt anything new at all and Thomas Middleditch is doing more acting in his Verizon commercials than on his show.”

    “Black-ish? I don’t get it. Anthony Anderson [as the character Dre] is so needy that it just takes me completely out of the show, plus I’ve never liked “A very special episode of…” stunts, and they did more than their share of those this year, like the one, “I’m afraid to be an African-American in America,” which ABC literally promoted as “A very special episode of…'”

    “I cannot, for the life of me, understand why This Is Us didn’t put its pilot on the ballot — that episode should be taught in schools.”

    Reply
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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 14, 2017 at 8:01 am #1202212575
    Jw79bull wrote:

    So do anyone have the order of which the awards are given out? Like is it supporting actor comedy then writing, etc, etc, etc……….

    Not sure yet, but in Chris Beachum’s chat with Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, the producers, they suggested they didn’t necessarily feel bound to the formula of grouping the categories by genre, so it may have a different flow than the past few years.

    Reply
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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 13, 2017 at 7:27 am #1202211679

    I thought Newton was going to win the Golden Globe, then I thought she had a shot at the SAG, but she won neither. I know the Emmys are a different animal, but I’m wondering if Newton’s performance is more of a critics thing. Maeve is a fan favorite character, but is she a little too cold? I’ve been predicting her for the longest time, but the Creative Arts indicated to me that between Stranger Things and Westworld, they prefer the former.

    Millie Bobby Brown kind of reminds me of Uzo Aduba, where a character played by a previously unknown actress becomes instantly iconic and popular, and is rewarded for it. Plus, we’ve seen that voters are more lenient towards younger performers these past two years, so the age thing might not be that big of a factor.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 13, 2017 at 6:02 am #1202211648

    Locking these in as my final predictions. I think this is a good mix of rubber-stamping, Emmy weirdness and indications from the Creative Arts:

    COMEDY SERIES
    Veep (HBO)

    DRAMA SERIES
    Stranger Things (Netflix)

    LIMITED SERIES
    Big Little Lies (HBO)

    TELEVISION MOVIE
    Black Mirror: San Junipero (Netflix)

    REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
    RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1)

    VARIETY TALK SERIES
    Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)

    VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
    Saturday Night Live (NBC)

    COMEDY LEAD ACTOR
    Jeffrey Tambor as Maura Pfefferman, Transparent (Amazon)

    DRAMA LEAD ACTOR
    Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson, This Is Us (NBC)

    LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE LEAD ACTOR
    Riz Ahmed as Nasir “Naz” Khan, The Night Of (HBO)

    COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (HBO)

    DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS
    Elisabeth Moss as Offred, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

    LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE LEAD ACTRESS
    Nicole Kidman as Celeste Wright, Big Little Lies (HBO)

    COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Alec Baldwin as Donald Trump, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

    DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
    John Lithgow as Winston Churchill, The Crown (Netflix)

    LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Michael Kenneth Williams as Freddy Knight, The Night Of (HBO)

    COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Judith Light as Shelley Pfefferman, Transparent (Amazon)

    DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Millie Bobby Brown as Eleven, Stranger Things (Netflix)

    LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Laura Dern as Renata Klein, Big Little Lies (HBO)

    COMEDY DIRECTING
    Donald Glover, Atlanta (FX) [“B.A.N.”]

    DRAMA DIRECTING
    The Duffer Brothers, Stranger Things (Netflix) [“Chapter One: The Vanishing Of Will Byers”]

    LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE DIRECTING
    Steven Zaillian, The Night Of (HBO) [“The Beach”]

    VARIETY DIRECTING
    Don Roy King, Saturday Night Live (NBC) [“Jimmy Fallon”]

    COMEDY WRITING
    Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe, Master of None (Netflix) [“Thanksgiving”]

    DRAMA WRITING
    Bruce Miller, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) [“Offred (Pilot)”]

    LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE WRITING
    David E. Kelley, Big Little Lies (HBO)

    VARIETY WRITING
    Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (HBO)

    Reply
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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    September 12, 2017 at 4:35 pm #1202211251

    Sunday’s chat was my first slugfest in four years! I last chatted with Tom O’Neil, Marcus Dixon et al. in 2013 after the Breaking Bad finale.

    It was an absolute blast. Thanks to Matt Noble and Amanda Spears for an amazing chat. Hopefully I’ll be on many more to come.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    August 25, 2017 at 5:26 am #1202194740

    Thanks guys! It’s all in good fun and indeed very subjective. I was actually surprised by how much I still love many of these films.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    August 16, 2017 at 9:08 am #1202186884

    And finally…

    Anthony Anderson, black-ish — Martin Lawrence
    Aziz Ansari, Master of None — Kal Penn
    Zach Galifianakis, Baskets — Jack Black
    Donald Glover, Atlanta — Kid Cudi
    William H. Macy, Shameless — Steve Buscemi
    Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent — Frank Langella

    Pamela Adlon, Better Things — Janeane Garofalo
    Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie — Candice Bergen
    Allison Janney, Mom — Katey Sagal
    Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt — Abby Elliott
    Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep — Catherine O’Hara
    Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish — Maya Rudolph
    Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie — Vicki Lawrence

    Louie Anderson, Baskets — Richard Kind
    Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live — Anthony Atamanuik
    Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt — Billy Porter
    Ty Burrell, Modern Family — Kyle Bornheimer
    Tony Hale, Veep — Thomas Lennon
    Matt Walsh, Veep — Andy Richter

    Vanessa Bayer, Saturday Night Live — N/A
    Anna Chlumsky, Veep — Judy Greer
    Kathryn Hahn, Transparent — Jenna Fischer
    Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live — N/A
    Judith Light, Transparent — Andrea Martin
    Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live — N/A

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    August 15, 2017 at 5:08 pm #1202186199

    My latest picks.

    Riz Ahmed, The Night Of — Rami Malek
    Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Lying Detective — Tom Hiddleston
    Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies — William Hurt
    Ewan McGregor, Fargo — Jon Hamm
    Geoffrey Rush, Genius — Tom Wilkinson
    John Turturro, The Night Of — Michael Imperioli

    Carrie Coon, Fargo — Kim Dickens
    Felicity Huffman, American Crime — Christine Lahti
    Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies — Robin Wright
    Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan — Cybill Shepherd
    Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan — Blythe Danner
    Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies — Jennifer Aniston

    Bill Camp, The Night Of — William Fichtner
    Alfred Molina, Feud: Bette and Joan — Oliver Platt
    Alexander Skarsgård, Big Little Lies — Guy Pearce
    David Thewlis, Fargo — Timothy Spall
    Stanley Tucci, Feud: Bette and Joan — Bryan Cranston
    Michael Kenneth Williams, The Night Of — Mahershala Ali

    Judy Davis, Feud: Bette and Joan — Patricia Clarkson
    Laura Dern, Big Little Lies — Gwyneth Paltrow
    Jackie Hoffman, Feud: Bette and Joan — Rhea Perlman
    Regina King, American Crime — CCH Pounder
    Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies — Diane Keaton
    Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies — Greta Gerwig

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    August 4, 2017 at 6:00 am #1202174400

    This Is Us feels like the likeliest choice here. It feels like an Empire situation, where a network show is a huge breakout and then for Season 2 the writers double down on what made it work in Season 1 and it becomes a mess. For Empire they went way over the top with the trashy soap opera angle, and for This Is Us I can easily see them making Season 2 incredibly cheesy and sentimental and tearjerking in the most obvious ways. And then people inevitably turn on the show.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    July 26, 2017 at 4:23 pm #1202166015

    Awesome! Now let’s get Janelle Monáe in this thing.

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    Kevin Jacobsen
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    July 22, 2017 at 6:35 am #1202161721

    Ventimiglia really surprised me — it’s certainly the best performance he’s ever turned in. I’m not as outraged by his nomination as others. But I would still vote for Brown, who is a huge part of what makes this show work, for me.

    Reply
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