[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203996983

wolfali wrote:

I don’t think we should rule out Jodie Foster. She’s been campaigning a lot and her film has a baity and timely subject matter. I understand why some are cautious because of the reviews but (unlike some other contenders with yellow and in some cases red scores on Metacritic that people have said are unaffected by reviews) this appears to be a love-hate situation à la Vice and Jojo Rabbit rather than “this film is bad”. I don’t think The Mauritanian will be as big as either Vice or Jojo Rabbit as a contender nor am I saying it will get in because of this but it definitely has passion too. It got in over more widely seen, more acclaimed and generally bigger categories at the London Film Critics Circle.

I wouldn’t call these the best comparisons. Jojo Rabbit is a film about Nazi Germany and Vice a film about a questionable politician and the Academy hardly passes on these type of films. Not only that, but on the opposite side they tend to reject dramas about about lawyers trying to get people out of prison.

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[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203980286

Ashton_Reeves wrote:

LMAO

https://fero.tips/news/10894-fans-want-zendaya-and-anya-taylor-joy-to-play-lesbian-lovers

This has been the only interesting thing in this whole thread.

The frontrunners in this race are nowhere near as competitive as the ones in the best actor category which is not being discussed as much. There’s a lot of comments saying the exact same thing here at this point, like a dog chasing its own tail. And considering how early it is to predict the final five, all of you are jumping to rushed annoying conclusions. All of you.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203958745

Bassett wrote:

BAFTA chose Mulligan in absence of Bullock in 2010 and over Meryl who already had CC, Globe + a bunch of major critics awards. If Mulligan wins the Globe they won’t even hesitate one second to award her

First of all, I want to say that I’ve became so old that I remember this as if it happened yesterday. Let me tell you then:
I recall Mulligan being the potential critics’ pick that year, even before race started. And she, indeed, became it. Then Streep started to gain more traction and collected some of the big ones and that’s when Bullock came out of nowhere with televised precursors (I don’t even recall her getting mentioned by critics’ awards, let alone win some of them). So, when BAFTAs came, it was expected Mulligan would win since she had tons of previous awards and by that time, the HUGE advantage British/European actresses had of winning in this category. My point is, since now that’s changed, if Mulligan wins, it’s because she’s getting the Oscar and not particularly for being a BAFTA favorite.
PS: in case you’re wondering (I know you don’t but please, let me share) my pick throughout all the way to the final five was Gabbi Sidibe (she got the Spirit, some wins here and there and she was chosen by Indiewire as the most deserving of the Oscar nominees) and overall it was Catalina Saavedra for La Nana.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203954310

I’ve just watched Soul and it’s definitely deserving of a Best Picture nom. Can it get it? The road might not be easy but I think it’s possible, even if it’s not as universally approved as Inside Out. Passion can lead to it, which outside of campaign is what it takes to get there.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203954204

Not my cup of tea:
06. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) / Roberto Benigni (Life is Beautiful)

OK:
05. Javier Bardem (Before Night Falls)

Great:
04. Marina De Tavira (Roma) / Benicio Del Toro (Traffic)

Excelent:
03. Javier Bardem (Biutiful) / Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) / Rinko Kikuchi (Babel) / Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)

02. Fernanda Montenegro (Central Station) / Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) / Penélope Cruz (Volver)

01. Isabelle Huppert (Elle) / Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)

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[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203954039

For the emotional rollercoaster that Terms of Endearment was, I’d give it to Debra Winger. However, if I have to vote with mind instead of heart I’d go with Meryl. There are a lot of people who think this might be her best performance ever. It’s definitely top 3 for me, or at least top 5. And it’s one of those weird instances of her being the best in her category.

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#1203944010

JackO wrote:

Mank is most definitely not. It has none of the charm of the artist. None of the fun of argo. It just aint it and hasnt never been it.

Do you recall the enormous bore that Good Night, and Good Luck was? That film got nominated everywhere and the only special thing about it was that it was in black and white, just like this film. White people only need to be half mediocre to get recognition.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203943998

Baffled to no end that Philip Seymour Hoffman won for Capote when he had excelent performances in:

Boogie Nights
Happiness
Flawless
Magnolia
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
The Savages
Charlie Wilson’s War
Synecdoche, New York
Doubt
The Master
A Most Wanted Man

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[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203943983

Look, I hate to be that person, but there’s already a The Prom thread to discuss it, people.

As for Fincher: Mank is the kind of crap the Academy loves and the Globe might even give him the award for best director.

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#1203943956

Victor wrote:

Delroy is being pushed hard by Netflix and the critics are reviving him.

I know critics are not the industry, but his name is for sure getting buzz, for now I think he’s a solid third.

He better be happening at the Oscars for my own sanity.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203943932

Was Promising Young Woman moved to Drama so The United States vs. Billie Holiday can be submitted in the Comedy/Musical categories? Since Marion Cotillard got nominated for La Môme as lead actress in one of them, I can see the same thing happening once again. And that was the year the writers’ strike happened, this year we’ve got a pandemic (OK, just reaching but there are these tiny weird coincidences).

Let’s thank the stupid Globes for giving Minari the push it needed so maybe the film, Steven Yeun and Youn Yuh-jung get everywhere else and make it to the Oscars. They pulled off a situation like a redneck trying to shoot a black person but missing and killing a KKK member.

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[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203943912

CateNicole wrote:

True, that would be a possible fraud… But I think the more strategic thing would be to campaign them both as Lead in drama and c/m for GG, and hope one sticks enough throughout the season to get a BA Oscar nom for a performance that is really golden. They both are, and I know it’s not the cool thing to say, but this is some of Streep’s finest work really. She may be entering a new renaissance, the last renaissance of hers being her performance in The Iron Lady with the overwhelming narrative of a third for Streep.

She’s going to be nominated anyway (it’s the only certain nomination this time of the race) and if they have to choose they’ll go with Let Them All Talk. And she had no problems getting in in supporting with something as Into The Woods, also being a musical adapted from stage, so it might be her first double nominated ceremony.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203943130

CateNicole wrote:

There are a lot of featured roles but Streep definitely has the most to do, with Pellman and Corden not too far behind. Kidman, Key, Rannells, DeBose, and Washington have smaller roles than that trio. If the film focused more on Pellman, I could see the case of frauding Streep to supporting.

So if Pellman gets the nomination in leading then it’s possible Streep gets nominated in supporting, right? It wouldn’t be the first time there’s category fraud, let’s be honest. Also this may sound weird, but here me out:
I see Streep getting in at the Oscars as a certainty at this point (I’m tired of people even questioning this since we’ve got an entire decade proving that she’s a sure thing with a bit of buzz and barely solid reviews for her films since her win for The Iron Lady) just as I am certain she won’t win the Globe (I feel anyone can win but her just like most years) and since I don’t feel they’ll nominate her in the same category twice to make her lose (though they’ve done that with Johnny Depp already) but I also don’t see the Globes passing on either The Prom and Let Them All Talk, this’ll be their outcome.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203943092

Chitanda170 wrote:

Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic’s scores are useless and untrustworthy

You’re right, but for being Regina King’s director debut she excelled. Plus, the two main industries, Emmys and Oscars have embraced her (as an actress, though). It’s also true that it could go any direction but at least she’s got the reviewers’ support and most actors turned directors have a great record at the Academy getting nominations for their performers.

[MultipleOscarWinner Joined: Mar 3rd, 2017 Topics: 3 Posts: 1449 View Predictions]

#1203943077

CateNicole wrote:

Interesting, but I don’t think they could fraud Streep to Supporting. The role of Dee Dee was borderline Supporting–very ensemble-based–for the stage production, but the film focuses in on her even more.

I have no idea about the stage production but with huge musical ensemble casts they tend to submit (at least at the Globes) most of their performers in supporting (also, doesn’t this film has like at least 5 leading characters?). Plus, considering the changes in submission for some films, she might start to clear a path to get her first double nominated year at the Oscars and build momentum to her 4th statue in the upcoming years.