[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203791415

It looks like Genius: Aretha is facing a big obstacle to making the cut for the Globes this year: https://deadline.com/2020/10/genius-aretha-shuts-down-production-covid-19-1234600432/.

And any chance that Away gets marketed as a limited series now, the way Seven Seconds was?

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203780598

On the musical side, it’s Jagged Little Pill with 15, Moulin Rouge with 14, and Tina with 12, so Tony voters really made a point to skunk The Lightning Thief, even blocking Chris McCarrell from being a Tony nominee. Everything else went true to form, as far as I’m concerned, and I suspect MR will sweep most of the categories, with Tina likely only winning for lead actress and Jagged Little Pill likely only winning for featured actress (although a vote split there could still end up benefiting Robyn Hurder).

On the play side, Slave Play with 12 and The Inheritance with 11 dominate and these are much more difficult races to call. A Solider’s Play managed 7 and The Sound Inside managed 6, so they could surprise in many places. Grand Horizons really underperformed, especially with its great cast, and The Great Society was completely shut out. But the play categories are definitely moreso the ones to watch this year, as I suspect everyone already knew.

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203768483

Yeah, there was a prediction center event for this year’s nominations that shut down in late March and I had hoped would reopen once we had official word of proceeding with this year’s ceremony. It’s weird to see it closed and frozen in time, and, with Broadway now remaining closed until at least the end of next May, I don’t even understand proceeding now, but here are my guesses for this year’s nominees in predictions center categories:

Best Musical

Jagged Little Pill
Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Play

Grand Horizons
The Great Society
The Inheritance
My Name is Lucy Barton
Slave Play

Best Play Revival

Betrayal
The Rose Tattoo
A Soldier’s Play

Best Actress (Musical)

Karen Olivo-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Elizabeth Stanley-Jagged Little Pill
Adrienne Warren-Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Actor (Musical)

Chris McCarrell-The Lightning Thief
Aaron Tveit-Moulin Rouge! The Musical

Best Actress (Play)

Zawe Ashton-Betrayal
Laura Linney-My Name is Lucy Barton
Mary-Louise Parker-The Sound Inside
Marisa Tomei-The Rose Tattoo

Best Actor (Play)

Andrew Burnap-The Inheritance
Tom Hiddleston-Betrayal
Samuel H. Levine-The Inheritance
Kyle Soller-The Inheritance

Best Featured Actress (Musical)

Kathryn Gallagher-Jagged Little Pill
Celia Rose Gooding-Jagged Little Pill
Robyn Hurder-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Lauren Patten-Jagged Little Pill

Best Featured Actor (Musical)

Danny Burstein-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Derek Klena-Jagged Little Pill
Sean Allan Krill-Jagged Little Pill
Sahr Ngaujah-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Daniel J. Watts-Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Featured Actress (Play)

Jane Alexander-Grand Horizons
Priscilla Lopez-Grand Horizons
Annie McNamara-Slave Play
Ashley Park-Grand Horizons
Lois Smith-The Inheritance

Best Featured Actor (Play)

David Alan Grier-A Soldier’s Play
John Benjamin Hickey-The Inheritance
Paul Hilton-The Inheritance
Ben McKenzie-Grand Horizons
Michael Urie-Grand Horizons

Best Director (Musical)

Phyllida Lloyd-Tina: The Tina Turner Musical
Diane Paulus-Jagged Little Pill
Alex Timbers-Moulin Rouge! The Musical

Best Director (Play)

Stephen Daldry-The Inheritance
Richard Eyre-My Name is Lucy Barton
Kenny Leon-A Soldier’s Play
Jamie Lloyd-Betrayal
Robert O’Hara-Slave Play

Best Musical Score

The Inheritance
The Rose Tattoo
Slave Play
The Sound Inside

Best Musical Book

Jagged Little Pill
Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Choreography

Jagged Little Pill
Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203766941

Still waiting on the predictions center to reopen…

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203725051

My proudest prediction was definitely here, predicting Maria Schrader to win for Unorthodox. She was the only nominee to be nominating for the entire program and she does remind me of Susanne Bier’s win for The Night Manager 4 years ago.

I’m also very glad that Ruffalo held on to win here, despite many naysayers. I wasn’t the biggest fan of his speech, as I suspect it would have played better in an auditorium, but it was a really phenomenal performance.

Abdul-Mateen’s win was much more surprising to me and I look forward to seeing where his career goes next.

And, while I thought the love for the Shirley episode of Mrs. America would go to Tanya Barfield’s writing, I am also very glad that Aduba won. I didn’t really think Smart would win (she only seems to win Emmys for her comedic work) and Aduba’s performance plus the current climate calling for more recognition of black women both artistically and politically seemed to all break in favor of a win here.

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203725041

Good for Succession, but, man those acting wins really confused me! I was braced for Strong and Crudup. But Garner repeating? And Zendaya winning the same award that Angela Lansbury couldn’t win for 12 years in a row (I know, it’s a different television academy now, but still). If there is any silver lining to so many productions being delayed, it may be an open field for Season 4 of The Crown next year, which was royally (heh) robbed in so many categories this year.

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203725029

Nothing much to say here. I don’t think that Schitt’s Creek deserved a total sweep, as I really admired the third season of TMMM, but also shows like The Good Place and The Kominsky Method. However, it was nice to see that wedding like celebratory atmosphere in that Canadian tent.

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203725024

A little delayed, but here are my reactions to the last creative arts ceremony:

I had hoped that there was Big Mouth momentum, but somehow Rick and Morty wins animated program!

I am sorry about Britell losing to Göransson and kudos to the 5 people that predicted Godfather of Harlem to win main title design!

I am glad for Stan Lathan, but really thought that a live show would win directing.

And I can’t believe the Emmys went the reverse way when I chose Succession for guest actor and This Is Us for guest actress. I’m still hopeful that Phylicia Rashad can get that Emmy some day!

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203714737

Ah, finally, here are some big surprises!

I was first surprised with Forky Asks A Question (which I should have realized would be swept up in general Disney goodwill over Robot Chicken), but then shocked at All For Us winning for music and lyrics!

Like many, I also thought that Unorthodox’s main title theme music would win out over Hollywood. Maybe this is long overdue recognition of Nathan Barr from his work on The Americans, a show the Emmys started to heap praise on too late for Barr.

And then in the acting races, I am glad that Maya Rudolph finally won and hoping she gets a quick bookend on Saturday night, but sorry she didn’t pre-record a speech. Big Mouth is long overdue for this recognition and am really hoping it can still win program! And then the short form acting races go to Pops and Peggy!

I’m mostly glad that now “only” 30 categories will be on Saturday night, including 15 prediction center categories! It could be a fun evening, but hopefully someone can make it more entertaining than these mini-ceremonies have been.

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203712272

OK, no predictions center categories this night, but still an interesting evening of winners! As should have been expected, The Mandalorian and Watchmen nabbed a lot of the visual tech prizes, but it was also nice to see the wealth spread to many other shows as well!

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203709605

Yeah, 4/4 on predictions center categories for Night Two! 5th consecutive win for John Oliver’s writing staff, 4th consecutive win (and 10th overall) for Don Roy King’s directing, 4th consecutive win for SNL in the program category, and 2nd consecutive win for Live in Front of a Studio Audience.

I am surprised that Lorne Michaels or any SNL producer couldn’t be bothered to record an acceptance speech. And did the same In Memoriam package have to be used? But I did enjoy how the Live in Front of a Studio Audience got all the producers into their acceptance speech.

These weeknight ceremonies have ended up being so short, now I am wondering why they weren’t combined into two nights. Personally, I’d be alright with more clips of the work being honored, but it looks like that isn’t to be!

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203707715

Alright, I went 3 for 3 on Night One, probably the only time I’ll ever predict every winner correctly at GoldDerby, certainly at the Emmys (the predictions center hasn’t been updated to reflect The Apollo over Becoming, so I’m enjoying it while it lasts)! And I did it by using the old Emmy rule of predicting what’s won before, with Queer Eye and Attenborough both taking their 3rd in a row, and Remini winning again now that Parts Unknown is out of footage.

I don’t think much of the presentation so far, but am glad that more craft artists are getting more individualized attention.

And I am sorry and surprised that Becoming lost in all 4 of its categories. Not the best start to the week!

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203704869

Here are my Emmy week predictions:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

HUGH JACKMAN / Frank Tassone – “BAD EDUCATION” (HBO)
PAUL MESCAL / Connell – “NORMAL PEOPLE” (Hulu)
CHRIS ROCK / Loy Cannon – “FARGO” (FX)
MARK RUFFALO / Dominick and Thomas Birdsey – “I KNOW THIS MUCH IS TRUE” (HBO)
JOHN SLATTERY / Fred Schlafly – “MRS. AMERICA” (FX on Hulu)
6th nominee: HUGH GRANT / Mike Fraser – “THE UNDOING” (HBO)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series (:-))

UZO ADUBA / Shirley Chisholm – “MRS. AMERICA” (FX on Hulu)
CATE BLANCHETT / Phyllis Schlafly – “MRS. AMERICA” (FX on Hulu)
ROSE BYRNE / Gloria Steinem – “MRS. AMERICA” (FX on Hulu)
MARGO MARTINDALE / Bella Abzug – “MRS. AMERICA” (FX on Hulu)
TRACEY ULLMAN / Betty Freidan – “MRS. AMERICA” (FX on Hulu)
6th nominee: NICOLE KIDMAN / Grace Fraser – “THE UNDOING” (HBO)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

JASON BATEMAN / Martin ‘Marty’ Byrde – “OZARK” (Netflix)
STERLING K. BROWN / Randall Pearson – “THIS IS US” (NBC)
BOB ODENKIRK / Jimmy McGill/Saul Goodman/Gene Takavic – “BETTER CALL SAUL” (AMC)
TOM PELPHREY / Ben Davis – “OZARK” (Netflix)
MATTHEW RHYS / Perry Mason – “PERRY MASON” (HBO)
6th nominee: BEN MENDELSOHN / Det. Ralph Anderson – “THE OUTSIDER” (HBO)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Princess Margaret – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
OLIVIA COLMAN / Queen Elizabeth II – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
JODIE COMER / Villanelle – “KILLING EVE” (BBC America)
LAURA LINNEY / Wendy Byrde – “OZARK” (Netflix)
SANDRA OH / Eve Polastri – “KILLING EVE” (BBC America)
6th nominee: SARAH PAULSON / Mildred Ratched – “RATCHED” (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

MAHERSHALA ALI / Sheikh Ali Malik – “RAMY” (Hulu)
LARRY DAVID / Himself – “CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM” (HBO)
DANIEL LEVY / David Rose – “SCHITT’S CREEK” (Pop TV)
EUGENE LEVY / Johnny Rose – “SCHITT’S CREEK” (Pop TV)
RAMY YOUSSEF / Ramy Hassan – “RAMY” (Hulu)
6th nominee: TED DANSON / Michael – “THE GOOD PLACE” (NBC)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

CHRISTINA APPLEGATE / Jen Harding – “DEAD TO ME” (Netflix)
LINDA CARDELLINI / Judy Hale – “DEAD TO ME” (Netflix)
JANE FONDA / Grace Hanson – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
LILY TOMLIN / Frankie Bergstein – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
CATHERINE O’HARA / Moira Rose – “SCHITT’S CREEK” (Pop TV)
6th nominee: ELLE FANNING / Catherine the Great – “THE GREAT” (Hulu)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

BETTER CALL SAUL (AMC)
THE CROWN (Netflix)
KILLING EVE (BBC America)
OZARK (Netflix)
THIS IS US (NBC)
6th nominee: RATCHED (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (HBO)
DEAD TO ME (Netflix)
THE GOOD PLACE (NBC)
RAMY (Hulu)
SCHITT’S CREEK (Pop TV)
6th nominee: WHAT WE DO IN THE SHADOWS (FX)

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203704865

Here are my Emmy week predictions:

Best Television Series – Drama

Better Call Saul (AMC)
The Crown (Netflix)
Killing Eve (BBC America)
Ozark (Netflix)
Westworld (HBO)
6th nominee: Lovecraft Country (HBO)

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Dead To Me (Netflix)
Insecure (HBO)
Ramy (Hulu)
Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
6th nominee: The Politician (Netflix)

Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Bad Education (HBO)
Fargo (FX)
Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)
Unorthodox (Netflix)
6th nominee: Hollywood (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama

Caitriona Balfe-Outlander (Starz)
Olivia Colman-The Crown (Netflix)
Jodie Comer-Killing Eve (BBC America)
Laura Linney-Ozark (Netflix)
Sarah Paulson-Ratched (Netflix)
6th nominee: Jurnee Smollett-Bell-Lovecraft Country (HBO)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Jason Bateman-Ozark (Netflix)
Stephan James-Homecoming (Prime Video)
Tobias Menzies-The Crown (Netflix)
Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul (AMC)
Matthew Rhys-Perry Mason (HBO)
6th nominee: Jonathan Majors-Lovecraft Country (HBO)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Christina Applegate-Dead To Me (Netflix)
Linda Cardellini-Dead To Me (Netflix)
Elle Fanning-The Great (Hulu)
Catherine O’Hara-Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Issa Rae-Insecure (HBO)
6th nominee: Lily Collins-Emily In Paris (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Larry David-Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Eugene Levy-Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Lamorne Morris-Woke (Hulu)
Ben Platt-The Politician (Netflix)
Ramy Youssef-Ramy (Hulu)
6th nominee: Steve Carell-Space Force (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Cate Blanchett-Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)
Shira Haas-Unorthodox (Netflix)
Nicole Kidman-The Undoing (HBO)
Kerry Washington-Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
Reese Witherspoon-Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
6th nominee: Octavia Spencer-Self Made: Inspired By The Life Of Madam C.J. Walker (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Hugh Grant-The Undoing (HBO)
Hugh Jackman-Bad Education (HBO)
Paul Mescal-Normal People (Hulu)
Chris Rock-Fargo (FX)
Mark Ruffalo-I Know This Much Is True (HBO)
6th nominee: Jeremy Pope-Hollywood (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role on Television

Helena Bonham Carter-The Crown (Netflix)
Julia Garner-Ozark (Netflix)
Thandie Newton-Westworld (HBO)
Chloë Sevigny-We Are Who We Are (HBO)
Fiona Shaw-Killing Eve (BBC America)
6th nominee: Holland Taylor-Hollywood (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Mahershala Ali-Ramy (Hulu)
Ben Daniels-The Crown (Netflix)
Dan Levy-Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Jim Parsons-Hollywood (Netflix)
Donald Sutherland-The Undoing (HBO)
6th nominee: Dylan McDermott-Hollywood (Netflix)

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 882 View Predictions]

#1203694690

Ah, the topic I was wondering if anyone was going to post for the last month and I was preparing to post after the awards.

Personally, I don’t think Watchmen would have done nearly as well if it went drama as if it went limited. I don’t think that any of the male actors would have got in and maybe King and Smart could have made it, along with writing and directing for This Extraordinary Being, plus plenty of tech nods, but I don’t think it would received anywhere near 26 Emmy nods.

Regarding what would have gotten into Watchmen’s longform spots if it had gone drama, I feel like Hollywood, based on its 4 acting nominations, would have received several more and likely would have received a program nod as well. Little Fires Everywhere also probably would have gotten Witherspoon in for acting and a writing nod, with Mrs. America and Unbelievable getting directing nods.

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