[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203990994

Ah, I’m a day late because I just prepared myself to not expect any awards new of any kind until February.

In the comedy categories, we’ll likely get another Schitt’s Creek sweep, but the strong showing for What We Do in the Shadows and remembering One Day At A Time (the only place to recognize Moreno’s strong work and doing so repeatedly) was nice to see.

In the drama categories, I suspect it’ll be an Ozark sweep, but The Crown (even with no Helena Bonham Carter!) definitely put up a good fight, as did The Good Fight to hang on in a year with only 10 drama series recognized! Lovecraft Country and Perry Mason performed very strongly, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can remain strong throughout the year ahead.

But, once again, longform seems to be where things are most interesting, as there is residual love for Mrs. America and Unorthodox, a boost for the Emmy-forgotten The Plot Against America, and many nominations for programs from the later part of the year, so I’m really looking forward to seeing what ultimately wins out!

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203984683

A limited series co-starring Steve Carell and featuring Angela Lansbury.

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203964891

Chris Beachum wrote:

Hamilton is eligible as a TV movie at SAG. It will not be eligible in any categories at the Oscars.

Thanks for the scoop, Chris! I suspect this means that Hamilton will end up going the pre-recorded variety special route at the Emmys. The Globe placement stands out now, but HFPA often goes its own way.

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203964868

So now it’s Grammys on March 14th, Oscars on April 25th, and Tonys on TBD. What could have been a full winter of diversions is turning into a hope for better conditions in the spring. I too hope everyone stays safe, but, especially once an eligibility period is over and voting has completed, I’d like to think that we’ll all be understanding of fully remote ceremonies.

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203849964

So evidently Unorthodox is not eligible for SAG Awards consideration:

https://series.netflixawards.com/limited-series-television-movie/unorthodox

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203840639

The Minutes (for now) is now set to open on Broadway on March 15, 2022, but will have to find a different venue:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/theater/chris-jones/ct-ent-steppenwolf-minutes-postpones-broadway-20201116-pgg77pdwmzdelld7r7wyfq3kdi-story.html

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203817711

I’m not sure why Next Goal Wins is now out of the Globe comedy categories (not in drama either) but still in for Oscars and SAG, so I hope someone here can explain that one to me.

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203808020

Some of my favorites:

Jean Harris: Ellen Burstyn in 1981 for The People vs. Jean Harris and Annette Bening in 2006 for Mrs. Harris (the project in which Ellen Burstyn appeared for 14 seconds and led to the creation of the “Ellen Burstyn rule” of needing to appear in at least 5% of a project’s run time to be eligible).

Eleanor Roosevelt: Jane Alexander in 1976 for Eleanor and Franklin and 1977 for Eleanor and Franklin: The White House Years, Eileen Heckart in 1979 for Backstairs at the White House and 1980 for F.D.R.: The Last Year, Jean Stapleton in 1982 for Eleanor, First Lady of the World, and Cynthia Nixon in 2005 for Warm Springs.

Sara Roosevelt: Rosemary Murphy in 1976 for Eleanor and Franklin and 1977 for Eleanor and Franklin: The White House Years and…Jane Alexander in 2005 for Warm Springs.

Franklin Roosevelt: Edward Herrmann in 1976 for Eleanor and Franklin and 1977 for Eleanor and Franklin: The White House Years, Jason Robards in 1980 for F.D.R.: The Last Year, Ralph Bellamy in 1983 for The Winds of War, Kenneth Branagh in 2005 for Warm Springs, and Len Cariou in 2009 for Into the Storm.

John Kennedy: William Devane in 1975 for The Missiles of October and Greg Kinnear in 2011 for The Kennedys.

Lyndon Johnson: Randy Quaid in 1987 for LBJ: The Early Years, Michael Gambon in 2002 in Path to War, and Bryan Cranston in 2016 for All The Way.

Abraham Lincoln: Jason Robards in 1964 for Abe Lincoln in Illinois (Hallmark Hall of Fame) and Hal Holbrook in 1976 for Sandburg’s Lincoln.

Mary Todd Lincoln: Julie Harris in 1977 for The Last of Mrs. Lincoln and Mary Tyler Moore in 1988 for Gore Vidal’s Lincoln.

John Adams: George Grizzard in 1976 for The Adams Chronicles and Paul Giamatti in 2008 for John Adams.

Abigail Adams: Kathryn Walker in 1976 for The Adams Chronicles and Laura Linney in 2008 for John Adams.

Ernest Hemingway: Stacy Keach in 1988 for Hemingway and Clive Owen in 2012 for Hemingway & Gellhorn.

Thurgood Marshall: Sidney Poitier in 1991 for Separate but Equal and Laurence Fishburne in 2011 for Thurgood.

Amelia Earhart: Susan Clark in 1977 for Amelia Earhart and Diane Keaton in 1995 for Amelia Earhart: The Final Flight.

Anne Frank: Lisa Jacobs in 1988 for The Attic: The Hiding of Anne Frank and Hannah Taylor-Gordon in 2001 for Anne Frank: The Whole Story.

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203791415

It looks like Genius: Aretha is facing a big obstacle to making the cut for the Globes this year: https://deadline.com/2020/10/genius-aretha-shuts-down-production-covid-19-1234600432/.

And any chance that Away gets marketed as a limited series now, the way Seven Seconds was?

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203780598

On the musical side, it’s Jagged Little Pill with 15, Moulin Rouge with 14, and Tina with 12, so Tony voters really made a point to skunk The Lightning Thief, even blocking Chris McCarrell from being a Tony nominee. Everything else went true to form, as far as I’m concerned, and I suspect MR will sweep most of the categories, with Tina likely only winning for lead actress and Jagged Little Pill likely only winning for featured actress (although a vote split there could still end up benefiting Robyn Hurder).

On the play side, Slave Play with 12 and The Inheritance with 11 dominate and these are much more difficult races to call. A Solider’s Play managed 7 and The Sound Inside managed 6, so they could surprise in many places. Grand Horizons really underperformed, especially with its great cast, and The Great Society was completely shut out. But the play categories are definitely moreso the ones to watch this year, as I suspect everyone already knew.

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203768483

Yeah, there was a prediction center event for this year’s nominations that shut down in late March and I had hoped would reopen once we had official word of proceeding with this year’s ceremony. It’s weird to see it closed and frozen in time, and, with Broadway now remaining closed until at least the end of next May, I don’t even understand proceeding now, but here are my guesses for this year’s nominees in predictions center categories:

Best Musical

Jagged Little Pill
Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Play

Grand Horizons
The Great Society
The Inheritance
My Name is Lucy Barton
Slave Play

Best Play Revival

Betrayal
The Rose Tattoo
A Soldier’s Play

Best Actress (Musical)

Karen Olivo-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Elizabeth Stanley-Jagged Little Pill
Adrienne Warren-Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Actor (Musical)

Chris McCarrell-The Lightning Thief
Aaron Tveit-Moulin Rouge! The Musical

Best Actress (Play)

Zawe Ashton-Betrayal
Laura Linney-My Name is Lucy Barton
Mary-Louise Parker-The Sound Inside
Marisa Tomei-The Rose Tattoo

Best Actor (Play)

Andrew Burnap-The Inheritance
Tom Hiddleston-Betrayal
Samuel H. Levine-The Inheritance
Kyle Soller-The Inheritance

Best Featured Actress (Musical)

Kathryn Gallagher-Jagged Little Pill
Celia Rose Gooding-Jagged Little Pill
Robyn Hurder-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Lauren Patten-Jagged Little Pill

Best Featured Actor (Musical)

Danny Burstein-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Derek Klena-Jagged Little Pill
Sean Allan Krill-Jagged Little Pill
Sahr Ngaujah-Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Daniel J. Watts-Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Featured Actress (Play)

Jane Alexander-Grand Horizons
Priscilla Lopez-Grand Horizons
Annie McNamara-Slave Play
Ashley Park-Grand Horizons
Lois Smith-The Inheritance

Best Featured Actor (Play)

David Alan Grier-A Soldier’s Play
John Benjamin Hickey-The Inheritance
Paul Hilton-The Inheritance
Ben McKenzie-Grand Horizons
Michael Urie-Grand Horizons

Best Director (Musical)

Phyllida Lloyd-Tina: The Tina Turner Musical
Diane Paulus-Jagged Little Pill
Alex Timbers-Moulin Rouge! The Musical

Best Director (Play)

Stephen Daldry-The Inheritance
Richard Eyre-My Name is Lucy Barton
Kenny Leon-A Soldier’s Play
Jamie Lloyd-Betrayal
Robert O’Hara-Slave Play

Best Musical Score

The Inheritance
The Rose Tattoo
Slave Play
The Sound Inside

Best Musical Book

Jagged Little Pill
Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

Best Choreography

Jagged Little Pill
Moulin Rouge! The Musical
Tina: The Tina Turner Musical

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203766941

Still waiting on the predictions center to reopen…

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[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203725051

My proudest prediction was definitely here, predicting Maria Schrader to win for Unorthodox. She was the only nominee to be nominating for the entire program and she does remind me of Susanne Bier’s win for The Night Manager 4 years ago.

I’m also very glad that Ruffalo held on to win here, despite many naysayers. I wasn’t the biggest fan of his speech, as I suspect it would have played better in an auditorium, but it was a really phenomenal performance.

Abdul-Mateen’s win was much more surprising to me and I look forward to seeing where his career goes next.

And, while I thought the love for the Shirley episode of Mrs. America would go to Tanya Barfield’s writing, I am also very glad that Aduba won. I didn’t really think Smart would win (she only seems to win Emmys for her comedic work) and Aduba’s performance plus the current climate calling for more recognition of black women both artistically and politically seemed to all break in favor of a win here.

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203725041

Good for Succession, but, man those acting wins really confused me! I was braced for Strong and Crudup. But Garner repeating? And Zendaya winning the same award that Angela Lansbury couldn’t win for 12 years in a row (I know, it’s a different television academy now, but still). If there is any silver lining to so many productions being delayed, it may be an open field for Season 4 of The Crown next year, which was royally (heh) robbed in so many categories this year.

[Nate Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 890 View Predictions]

#1203725029

Nothing much to say here. I don’t think that Schitt’s Creek deserved a total sweep, as I really admired the third season of TMMM, but also shows like The Good Place and The Kominsky Method. However, it was nice to see that wedding like celebratory atmosphere in that Canadian tent.