[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203169650

Yeah, regardless of its quality, I think that American Son is practically a lock to be nominated for Outstanding Television Movie. This past year, there were only 21 contenders on the Emmy ballot for the category, with none of those endless Hallmark Channel movies even submitted, and no performers from television movies were even nominated. With only this and two more coda movies (El Camino and Transparent’s Musicale Finale) as real options right now, there is likely to be some serious filler yet again to reach 5 nominees. I really wish that there was some sort of viability threshold, like the Oscars used to do for Best Original Song, to determine how many nominees there should be here.

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[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203157808

This topic keeps bubbling up, so I figured I’d chime in. Without having been around to follow those years in particular, I can only speculate what the sentiment was at the time, but, just looking at the competition and the reception to these movies, it looks to me like Page was likely in last place for each of her four supporting nominations, but likely close to winning for each of her three previous leading nominations. Receiving 8 nominations for only 31 movies altogether, Academy voters really made some effort to single her out when she could have easily been overlooked overall as someone who was never a movie star, much like how Frances McDormand has managed to rack up her nominations and wins over time. And it seems to me that sentimentality + role (something Glenn Close was sadly missing this year) finally pushed her over the edge when she had the full narrative necessary to win.

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[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203139488

I just saw the preview and now I see how the filmmakers are going the way of The Big Short and Vice but without Adam McKay, so I guess it’s the Randolph touch. There are so few contenders in the predictions center for Best Actress that I just threw Theron in. I’ll probably also add Lithgow eventually. It’s been 36 years since his back-to-back Oscar nods, but hopefully new Academy members are familiar with his work in Dexter and The Crown. I’m just waiting to see if he does substantive work here or if it’s more like Sam Rockwell in Vice, which ultimately worked out for Rockwell anyway. Kidman appears to me to be reprising her Suzanne from To Die For and I worry that Robbie looks promising but might split votes with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and be left with nothing to show after likely narrowly missing a nod last year. But the two of them could certainly Stone and Weisz their way in.

• This reply was modified 1 month ago by  Nate.
• This reply was modified 1 month ago by  Nate.

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[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203107532

Also, the new season of Kidding got bumped to 2020, so no new episodes will have aired in 2019.

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203105261

No Joey King for The Act? No Rami Malek for Mr. Robot? I assume you’re still uploading contenders, like the This Is Us leading men, as the rest of the cast is in there, but thanks for the early activation!

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203098176

I had been thinking that Fleabag just wasn’t eligible to compete in series based on the HFPA eligibility rules (https://www.goldenglobes.com/sites/default/files/media/golden_globe_awards_eligibility_descriptions_final.pdf), but it turns out that this season of Fleabag runs for a total of 152 program minutes, 2 more than is necessary, and therefore can compete.

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203098165

Holding strong to Bandersnatch, despite the Deadwood drumbeats. But I am also glad that Black Mirror can’t compete in Television Movie next year, with none of the episodes reaching 75 minutes, as none of this season’s three episodes were as good as the three winners.

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[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203096549

That was the strangest Emmy opening I can remember since the 2008 show with all of the reality hosts.

In comedy, I was happy about the Maisel wins and was prepared for a sweep, but, after Fleabag won the directing award, I had a feeling PWB would win for lead actress. Even though I was rooting for Brosnahan, I am glad that JLD lost and that Cloris Leachman can hold the record for most Primetime Emmy acting wins longer.

In longform, I was very surprised at Arquette over Clarkson (there goes the perfect record!) and then, once Chernobyl won both directing and writing, I didn’t think Jerome had a chance, but he pulled off the win! And, while I didn’t predict this win either, I was so thrilled for the Williams win!

In variety, the winners were as expected, but I have to admit that I liked the Adam Devine number more than I thought I would! And thank goodness for Sarah Silverman’s reaction to the SNL win, 25 years after she was fired from the show!

In drama, I was happy for the Succession writing win to keep things interesting. I wasn’t really feeling the Mean Girls-like talk of breaking up parts of the Emmy to give away by the Ozark winners. And I also had a feeling that Comer would win over Oh, even if it was disappointing to see Oh lose again.

And, while I was glad that Whitford and Smits mentioned that The West Wing premiered on this date, I am sorry that Friends, along with many other shows (https://www.eonline.com/news/1072033/friends-and-the-magic-september-22-tv-premiere-date), didn’t get the same mention. Also, why no Crazy Ex-Girlfriend in the package of shows that said farewell this year? And Carol Channing, who didn’t really do any television of note in her career, was an odd choice to end the In Memoriam. But at least the show came in just about on time with no host!

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203078653

I am very happy about all of the wins for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, even though I was really hoping for justice for Peter MacNicol, and hope it does well next Sunday too. Chernobyl really dominated over When They See Us and Fosse/Verdon, but it is more of a visual piece, so I guess it shouldn’t be that surprising. And I can’t believe that the orphaned Handmaid’s Tale episodes managed to get both guest acting Emmys.

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203075401

I am so happy for Rachel Bloom finally winning an Emmy! And the Live In Front Of A Studio Audience win was so well deserved. Otherwise, Free Solo’s sweep and so many repeat winners dragged down tonight’s ceremony for me, so I’m hoping for more surprises in the next two!

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[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203068533

I might have missed something, but where did “Where’d You Go, Bernadette” go? It’s not in the predictions center at all anymore. I know it received mixed reviews, but I still think it may have a chance somewhere.

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203048262

Labor Day weekend predictions:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

MAHERSHALA ALI / Wayne Hays – “TRUE DETECTIVE” (HBO)
RUSSELL CROWE / Roger Ailes – “THE LOUDEST VOICE” (Showtime)
JARED HARRIS / Valery Legasov – “CHERNOBYL” (HBO)
IAN MCSHANE / Al Swearengen – “DEADWOOD” (HBO)
SAM ROCKWELL / Bob Fosse – “FOSSE/VERDON” (FX)
6th nominee: STELLAN SKARSGÅRD / Boris Shcherbina – “CHERNOBYL” (HBO)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Dee Dee Blanchard – “THE ACT” (Hulu)
JOEY KING / Gypsy Rose Blanchard – “THE ACT” (Hulu)
HELEN MIRREN / Catherine II – “CATHERINE THE GREAT” (HBO)
EMILY WATSON / Ulana Khomyuk – “CHERNOBYL” (HBO)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Gwen Verdon – “FOSSE/VERDON” (FX)
6th nominee: EMMA THOMPSON / Vivienne Rook – “YEARS AND YEARS” (HBO)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

STERLING K. BROWN / Randall Pearson – “THIS IS US” (NBC)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
DAVID HARBOUR / Jim Hopper – “STRANGER THINGS” (Netflix)
JOHN KRASINSKI / Jack Ryan – “TOM CLANCY’S JACK RYAN” (Prime Video)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot Alderson – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
6th nominee: JOSEPH FIENNES / Commander Waterford – “THE HANDMAID’S TALE” (Hulu)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

OLIVIA COLMAN / Queen Elizabeth II – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
LAURA DERN / Renata Klein – “BIG LITTLE LIES” (HBO)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Celeste Wright – “BIG LITTLE LIES” (HBO)
SANDRA OH / Eve Polastri – “KILLING EVE” (BBC America)
REESE WITHERSPOON / Madeline MacKenzie – “BIG LITTLE LIES” (HBO)
6th nominee: ELISABETH MOSS / Offred/June – “THE HANDMAID’S TALE” (Hulu)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

MICHAEL DOUGLAS / Sandy Kominsky – “THE KOMINSKY METHOD” (Netflix)
BILL HADER / Barry Berkman – “BARRY” (HBO)
MARC MARON / Sam Sylvia – “GLOW” (Netflix)
TONY SHALHOUB / Abe Weissman – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL” (Prime Video)
HENRY WINKLER / Gene Cousineau – “BARRY” (HBO)
6th nominee: JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

ALISON BRIE / Ruth Wilder – “GLOW” (Netflix)
RACHEL BROSNAHAN / Miriam “Midge” Maisel – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL” (Prime Video)
JANE FONDA / Grace Hanson – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
LILY TOMLIN / Frankie Bergstein – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
6th nominee: UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

BIG LITTLE LIES (HBO)
THE CROWN (Netflix)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
STRANGER THINGS (Netflix)
THIS IS US (NBC)
6th nominee: THE HANDMAID’S TALE (Hulu)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

BARRY (HBO)
GLOW (Netflix)
THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL (Prime Video)
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK (Netflix)
VEEP (HBO)
6th nominee: ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT (Netflix)

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203048258

Labor Day Weekend predictions:

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Big Little Lies (HBO)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Pose (FX)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
6th nominee: This Is Us (NBC)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Olivia Colman-The Crown (Netflix)
Nicole Kidman-Big Little Lies (HBO)
Elisabeth Moss-The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Sandra Oh-Killing Eve (BBC America)
Reese Witherspoon-Big Little Lies (HBO)
6th nominee: Mandy Moore-This Is Us (NBC)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA

Kevin Bacon-City On A Hill (Showtime)
Sterling K. Brown-This Is Us (NBC)
Freddie Highmore-The Good Doctor (ABC)
Rami Malek-Mr. Robot (USA)
Billy Porter-Pose (FX)
6th nominee: Milo Ventimiglia-This Is Us (NBC)

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Barry (HBO)
The Good Place (NBC)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
The Politician (Netflix)
Russian Doll (Netflix)
6th nominee: Veep (HBO)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Rachel Bloom-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW)
Alison Brie-GLOW (Netflix)
Rachel Brosnahan-The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
Natasha Lyonne-Russian Doll (Netflix)
Gina Rodriguez-Jane The Virgin (CW)
6th nominee: Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep (HBO)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Don Cheadle-Black Monday (Showtime)
Ted Danson-The Good Place (NBC)
Michael Douglas-The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Bill Hader-Barry (HBO)
Ben Platt-The Politician (Netflix)
6th nominee: Jim Carrey-Kidding (Showtime)

BEST LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Chernobyl (HBO)
Fosse/Verdon (FX)
His Dark Materials (HBO)
When They See Us (Netflix)
Years and Years (HBO)
6th nominee: The Spanish Princess (Starz)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Joey King-The Act (Hulu)
Helen Mirren-Catherine the Great (HBO)
Emma Thompson-Years and Years (HBO)
Michelle Williams-Fosse/Verdon (FX)
Renée Zellweger-What/If (Netflix)
6th nominee: Charlotte Hope-The Spanish Princess (Starz)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Mahershala Ali-True Detective (HBO)
Russell Crowe-The Loudest Voice (Showtime)
Jared Harris-Chernobyl (HBO)
Ian McShane-Deadwood (HBO)
Sam Rockwell-Fosse/Verdon (FX)
6th nominee: Jharrell Jerome-When They See Us (Netflix)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Laura Dern-Big Little Lies (HBO)
Zoë Kravitz-Big Little Lies (HBO)
Chrissy Metz-This Is Us (NBC)
Meryl Streep-Big Little Lies (HBO)
Shailene Woodley-Big Little Lies (HBO)
6th nominee: Uzo Aduba-Orange Is The New Black (Netflix)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Kieran Culkin-Succession (HBO)
David Harbour-Stranger Things (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård-Chernobyl (HBO)
Christian Slater-Mr. Robot (USA)
Henry Winkler-Barry (HBO)
6th nominee: Joseph Fiennes-The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203043272

Bingo. SFU only won 9 Emmys during its entire run: the 2 for Clarkson, 2 for Casting, 2 for Makeup, Main Title Design, Main Title Theme Music, and directing for the pilot. Clarkson is likely the only chance for Sharp Objects to win an Emmy, especially with the program having aired over a year ago now, and there doesn’t seem to be a groundswell of support of the other performances, so this looks like a category where “well, we like her enough, let’s just give her the award” seals the deal.

[NateParticipant Joined: Jun 5th, 2011 Topics: 6 Posts: 787 View Predictions]

#1203029650

Great list! It looks to me like many of these actors, particularly those in the comedy races, likely suffered from the lack of likability of their characters, but then some characters, like many of those in the drama categories, weren’t exciting enough to get voters’ attention. So the best Emmy bait would be over-the-top characters with something redeeming about them, although the latter has seemed less important in recent years as “anti-heros” become more of the norm. Generally, most of the perennial nominees lessen their chances of winning over time, but all it takes is a great storyline to get them back into the mix, so I wouldn’t rule anyone out entirely.

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