[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203233586

I feel like there hasn’t been much news about this! I’ve been so excited for it and I didn’t even realize they’d begun production.

Doesn’t necessarily seem like it will be an awards player, but I think we have to consider it based on the pedigree of the source material (Tony winner for Best Musical), and obviously the Lin Manuel Miranda of it all. Plus based on the trailer (which I actually think looks better than I was expecting) it seems like they’ve made some updates to the book to make it more politically relevant.

*Plus I love that they went with a cast of what looks like mostly unknowns rather than wedging in every latinx popstar they could find.

• This reply was modified 2 days, 16 hours ago by  Riley Chow.
• This reply was modified 2 days, 15 hours ago by  nkb325.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203217034

Also I think if we’ve learned anything in the past few years it’s this: NEVER doubt Regina King at the Emmy’s.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203216704

Ok so is this Yalitza thing a joke, and am I just thick for not getting it lol? I see no record of that movie existing on the internet

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203206484

Seven wrote:

Not sure that Octavia was a veteran when she won. Yes she already had like a million acting credits on her resumé but 90% of them were for unnamed cameos, cashier, nurse, waitress, bystander etc. At that point she was the most ignored, underrated and underused woman in Hollywood and I’m pretty sure most people thought she was a newcomer when she finally broke through with the Help, even though she had been hustling for 15 years already

Her success story is beyond fascinating tbh

You’re probably right! Still fits in perfectly with the welcome to Hollywood trend

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203206430

I think Robbie is an interesting case. She does seem to possibly have the best chance of sliding into 1st if people are disappointed once they actually see Dern and don’t feel comfortable giving it to Lopez, she’s got the name recognition, the reviews, and a second acclaimed performance in a BP frontrunner. But I feel like she’d be at an odd place in her career for that.

I feel like she’s definitely not a hot new thing, she’s been fully established for at least 4-5 years, but also hasn’t fully solidified her star image yet, so she’s at this interesting transition phase in her career, and one where I don’t feel woman usually win, especially not in supporting. It’s usually either a “welcome to Hollywood” type win like Vikander, N’yongo, of Hudson or a veteran like King, Davis, Spencer, Arquette, Hathaway (I understand she was only in her 30s but she’d been in the industry for over 10 years at that point).

The closest comparison to Robbie I can find is maybe Penelope Cruz, also following up a lead nomination, also in late 20s-early 30’s range, but that was also over 10 years ago and a very particular circumstance. So just saying, the recent trends favor either a veteran (Dern, Lopez) or a brand new star (I guess Pugh would be the best fit, and also has the similarly acclaimed role in a genre film that Vikander had). So look out for those three I guess, but at the same time trends are only trends until they’re not so who knows.

• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by  nkb325.
• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by  nkb325.
• This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by  nkb325.

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203204836

thatnerdgreg wrote:

What’s sad to me is that Shuzhen Zhao would probably be winning this if she was famous to American audiences.

My favorite performance out of the contenders I’ve seen, definitely

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203204809

Babygirl wrote:

Both Dern and JLo’s performances are meh but Dern definitely deserves to win more. If a different actress played Ramona she wouldn’t even be in contention, critics are only giving JLo acclaim because they’re shocked that she was capable of giving an “OK” performance after years and years of starring in panned films lol.

I actually completely disagree, I don’t think anyone was especially expecting Lopez’s performance or this movie in general to be an oscar contender, she literally only started getting hype once the reviews for her performance came out, and they were rave performances (over-raved, maybe. I liked Lopez in the film fine, but I’m trying not to talk about my personal opinion here), and then the fact that Lopez is a huge star helps add to her narrative. Conversely, if a different actress played Dern’s part, I can almost guarantee she wouldn’t be in the conversation.

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203204242

Cordelia wrote:

Regarding Johannson, I agree. This made me realise that she’s actually a good actress, she just doesn’t get/choose the right roles. She is good with repressed emotions and more realistic stakes.

Regarding Dern, I think her appeal is mostly that she gets the big monologue about mothers and women. She gets to argue one of the film’s main points. Also, this might be a career Oscar for her, so bear in mind this will also be treated as an award for her career.

Is Dern’s monologue even that “big” though? I didn’t time it or anything but I feel like it last like under a minute, and didn’t really have anything that personal or emotional to it, she was just kind of annoyed about sexist double standards. When I watched it I was genuinely so sure that that scene couldn’t possibly have been the big monologue everyone was talking about that I kept waiting for another one to come that never did. I do agree her buzz is basically entirely for a career oscar and her recent career comeback, but it’ll be a shame if this is what she wins for. It’s not a bad performance by any means, just not an especially interesting or impressive one.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203203229

I’ll just say I was pleasantly surprised by Johannson, who I’ve honestly never really considered a very good actress, but she was really good in this. As somewhat gimmicky as her big act 1 monologue is, she honestly does pull it off, and she has a couple small moments that really hit home.

Can someone explain Dern to me though? She does well with the role she’s given I guess, she’s got some funny Renata Klein-esque lines, but there isn’t really anything interesting or complex to the character, and so by extension her performance. I kinda feel like plenty of other actresses could’ve played the part, it’s really not that significant a role to the story.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203202939

Saw Marriage Story last night, kind of very confused how Dern is the frontrunner and hope that that changes once people start to actually see the movie.

She’s not bad in it by any means, she just doesn’t really do much. Her screen time is pretty minimal, I’d say no more than 20-30 minutes TOPS in a 2 hour and 17 minute movie, and she doesn’t really get anything that interesting to do. Sure her character is fun I guess, and Dern gets to land a couple bitchy Renata Klein-esque chuckles but you never really see more than one side to the character (through no fault of Dern’s, it’s just a pretty one note role because her character is just more of a piece of the plot than an active participant). Even that big “monologue” that people have been talking about as her big moment, I put in quotes because it’s barely a monologue. It lasts for like maybe a minute, and there isn’t really anything that complex or emotional to it, it’s just her character talking animatedly about sexism for 60 seconds. Honestly I didn’t even start to realize that this might be her monologue until like halfway through, and then it just ended like 20 seconds later and I was so confident that that couldn’t be what all the hype was about that I was sure there must be another one coming, and there never was. I just genuinely don’t understand the hype for this performance. Dern is a really good actor who is capable of a lot more, but just simply wasn’t asked to provide anymore for this role (which is fine, not every part in a movie can be a barnburner). With that said, she’s been a placeholder frontrunner simply due to narrative for so much of the season without anyone coming along with a compelling enough reason to replace her, so unless a something breaks late that really blows people away (Pugh in Little Women maybe? I guess her and Bates are the only people left to be widely seen), so point is I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins anyway.

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203159633

Basically if the “Filmmaker” behind a film (in this case I’m using that to describe either Director or Director/Screenwriter) has already won a major oscar for a movie they directed, or directed a best picture winner, that film is at a major disadvantage.

Directors often become sort of the face of their movie, so if that face has won an oscar before, then their movie is less likely to win. Tarantino would be the first filmmaker to win Best Picture after already winning a major oscar as a filmmaker in 12 years. Scorsese would be the first person to direct 2 Best Picture winners in 15 years.

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203159528

I’ve been trying to figure out why the idea of movies like The Irishman or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood taking Best Picture haven’t been sitting well with me, and I think I finally figured it out. I noticed a trend that may mean nothing, or it may mean something: For the last 10+ years, the academy has been consistently choosing either new, or overdue talent specifically in Best Picture.

This comes with a few caveats, but bear with me:

The last time Best Picture went to a film that was directed by someone who had previously won a major Oscar Category (Director or Screenplay) for a film they directed was 2007 with No Country for Old Men, directed by previous screenplay winning the Coen Brothers. It hasn’t gone to a film directed by a previous Best Picture director since Million Dollar Baby in 2005. The one exception in the last 12 years is Argo, directed by screenplay winner Ben Affleck, but he was still new to directing and was a new talent as a filmmaker. Thats Over 10 years of the top award consistently going to a film by a filmmaker who has never won a major oscar before.

This has come to pass in multiple close races in recent years (Green Book vs Roma, Spotlight vs The Revenant, Argo vs Lincoln). The film by the either overdue Oscar director or the breakout Oscar director has won every year for the past 12 years.

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203139933

CateNicole wrote:

Also, yes, Scarjo won an Oscar for that performance but basically everyone agreed she only won because of her celebrity

What?

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203139928

I have Moss second for performer of the decade, but Paulson first. Her OJ performance is an all timer, plus seasons 2 and 4 of of AHS are also amazing and though I haven’t seen Game Change yet, the clips ive seen of her performance are pretty great, not to mention a solid guest appearance on Greys Anatomy. Just the sheer number of roles she’s played across so many shows is why I had to put her. Moss may have two all timer performances to Paulson’s one, but she has like 5-6 great performances across a variety of types of show.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#1203130126

thatnerdgreg wrote:

Kind of sad remembering how Deep was nominated for an Oscar and won at SAG for that first movie. Jack Sparrow used to be so cool. Now he’s a Razzie nominated character.

Has any other actor ever been nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie for playing the same character? I know it’s never happened for the same film.

It also actually has happened on two occasions for the same film. Amy Irving in Yentl and James Coco for Only when I Laugh were both nominated for Oscars and Razzies for the same performances. As far as I can remember neither “won” either award.

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