[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203351107

Jays wrote:

Hahn isn’t happening for Mrs. Fletcher, though she was great.

You’re probably right, but I remember her nom for Transparent as a pretty big surprise (and if I remember her character was like the 4th most prominent supporting female on her show), so if there’s enough affinity for her as a performer maybe she could surprise again

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203351105

ScarJo definitely makes the most sense on paper, but I think Little Women’s buzz came very late due to it’s release and was actually peaking at just the right time that Ronan could’ve come in second. Plus I think there was actually a bit more passion around her Jojo performance – her marriage story nom seemed kind of decided by prognosticators early on, but her Jojo nom didn’t start to materialize until very much into the season when people in the industry actually started voting

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203346994

John Berchmans wrote:

With a full precursor sweep, my guess would be yes. I think the nomination was the hurdle for Afleck.

Yea some people like to make the argument that it was sympathy for his director snub that pushed the film so far, but those people seem to forget that both the critics choice and the golden globes closed their voting way before the oscar nominations came out (they were especially early that year) and he and the movie won both of those. So while it definitely could’ve turned into one of those critics awards vs industry awards splits we know he would’ve had the momentum anyway and don’t have any reason to think it wouldn’t have played out just like it did

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203345744

I don’t have much to contribute except that while I am fine with 1917’s win for cinematography I do think Parasite should have at least been nominated. I also would’ve given it a nom for Score.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203344964

BBC did a TV miniseries of this in 2015 that was INCREDIBLE – would 10/10 recommend to any Christie fans.

This is obviously one of her most famous novels, and while I don’t think Christie’s books ever got especially deep or emotional, but this is certainly the book that has the best frame work to pull that from (which the 2015 miniseries does excellently) so I am very interested to see this. The miniseries was also the first english language adaptation to use the original, much darker ending from the book rather than the slightly happier one from the play, so now that that barrier’s been broken (and darker content is more welcome in mainstream entertainment) I’m sure this will do the same. They also used what now seems to be the common substitution in the script of “10 little soldier boys”, which rolls off the tongue a little awkwardly but of course is much more appropriate haha

For anyone wondering, the only other adaptation and at the time the only one to use the original ending was a 2008 Russian version (because of course it was) that I have been trying and failing for years to find online!

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203343131

Foolio wrote:

In what universe is her performance in Judy “maligned”? Even the most vocal critics of the movie praised her to bits.

I guess I more mean that it’s not a universally adored win. There’s a lot of “she’s good in a fine movie” talk and a fair share of film twitter that doesn’t like the win. I’m just saying I don’t predict the win to age very well in the general consensus, and that’s nothing to do with my opinions of the performance (I thought she was very good, probably wouldn’t be my winner but I wasn’t super excited by anyone in this category this year)

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203342231

It’s a shame because ironically I think Zellweger is actually kind of an underrated actress. She has two oscars, but both are fairly maligned performances which makes people think she’s overrated, when actually she’s been really great in losing performances. As great as Kidman is in The Hours (would be my winner) would anyone really criticize her winning for Chicago? Not to mention Bridget Jones, and un-nominated performances in stuff like Nurse Betty, Jerry Maguire, Cinderella Man, and White Oleander. I think she’s actually a really talented actress capable of giving charming and interesting performances, she just somehow won 2 oscars for her 2 most basic oscar bait performances so now everyone thinks she sucks. Plus she’s definitely a bit of an odd duck, so considering she hasn’t had a hit movie in years and is more known for interviews and acceptance speeches than her acting, people just have forgotten how good she can actually be.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203342093

JGibson wrote:

As usual I’m the last one here to watch the hyped films so I’m reviving the thread to say this was EXCELLENCE

I still think Invisible Life should win Best International Film because Parasite will win Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and gather some acting nods.

LOVED IT SIS

So glad someone else saw and loved Invisible Life! Parasite deserves everything it got but it’s nice to reference and also incredible movie that should’ve gotten more traction, it didn’t even make the international feature shortlist!

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203331846

daniellbp wrote:

Do you guys think Sex Education could be nominated for some awards? This show is sooooo underrated. Great script, great actors and it’s also politically relevant and important.

The Emmys shouldn’t ignore it again.

It would certainly make my ballot in a few categories, and I think if it was an american show it would make more of a dent but I think it’s britishness will work against it. It’s not quite a big enough of a hit for voters to look at it as anything other than “that british high school show”, even though if you watch it you know it’s so much more than that. If i had a ballot I’d probably give it at least a nom for:

Comedy Series
Asa Butterfield for Lead Actor (this is the one I’m most shakey on)
Emma Mackey for Lead Actress (best performer on the show imo)
Ncuti Gatwa for Supporting Actor (although a case could be made for Lead)
Gillian Anderson for Supporting Actress (I’m also very tempted to include Aimee Lou Wood here but I’d have to think about my ballot more)
Episode 1 for Best Directing
Episode 7 for Best Writing

Not to mention some very deserving nods for Cinematography, Production Design, and definitely costume design

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203328894

Someone may have pointed this out already but I think it’s worth still considering what 1917’s SAG ensemble snub could mean. Yes, that trend clearly seems to be broken with the last two movies in a row not getting in, but those movies still had acting support. Shape of Water got 3 acting nominations, and Green Book got 2 and 1 win. So maybe while they didn’t have enough acting support to get in for ensemble, they clearly had some, whereas we have no way to gage of 1917 has any.

[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203300724

As many people have pointed out, Chalamet is sort of this generations Leo DiCaprio, and look how long they took to give him one. He got nominated for his breakout film performance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold off for a while for him to really grow into himself.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203289892

What are the odds Hustlers is J-Lo’s Magic Mike? Rather than her one and only shot, it’s the start of Lopez-aissance that leads to her being back in the conversation in a couple years? Crazier things have happened – not to mention both are literally about more seasoned strippers taking younger up and comers under their wing and then turning on them, but that’s more of just a fun coincidence

I think the biggest thing in her way was her reputation, that this was the first good movie she was in in years. But the next good movie she makes won’t be the first one anymore

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203284220

Jays wrote:

Judy Greer

She (deservedly imo) got in the conversation for Descendants for a pretty small role, hopefully she get’s something bigger that gets her back in the mix!

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203282763

I’m a little surprised myself but I went with Lady Bird, a movie/performance that I considered good not great when I first saw it but in the years since the more it sits with me the more and more impressed I am by it. I remember a critic saying (can’t remember who) “I cannot describe to you how refreshing this movie is” – and me thinking that was really extreme but now that’s exactly how I feel about the movie and her performance: refreshing.

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[nkb325Participant Joined: Feb 6th, 2012 Topics: 20 Posts: 1529 View Predictions]

#1203282506

^ I think she’ll avoid that because I don’t think Scarlett seems to have much personal support. She doesn’t seem to be one of those people that “everyone loves” and has this great lovable reputation in hollywood, so I don’t think there will be a ton of people thinking “I just love Scarlett so much and want her to win something so I choose [blank]”, I think if she gets votes it will be because they like her, the movie, or because she’s their least disliked out of the nominees. She does have a good shot in that the majority of oscar-less actors who pull off the twice in one year trick end up winning one of them. And her perf in Jojo was not considered a major threat all season, she wasn’t even predicted to be nominated until she started showing up at precursors, so people seem to actually like this performance – I think if she wins even just one of BAFTA or SAG she’ll become the go to for people who weren’t impressed with Dern and she could pull it off

You could also argue that Jojo overperformed (one could see it as underperformed seeing as it wouldn’t have been crazy for it to get more, but it also would not have been surprising for it to get way less) whereas Marriage Story get the same number of noms but basically got the minimum it was realistically going to get and didn’t surprise anywhere

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