Hustlers, John Wick 3, Honey Boy, Good Boys, and Booksmart were all met with high critical acclaim but they were some of the worst films I saw this year.

Rise of Skywalker and Solo

Parasite missing acting and 1917 missing editing don’t feel like the gameover disqualifiers to me that others seem to think it is.

Slumdog, while very different in tone and subject matter, was an ensemble of, at the time, unknown Asian actors which the Academy historically struggles to recognize. The west has a hard enough time recognizing B…[Read more]

Disagree with the content of the main post. To summarize what others have said, the race is dull but the movies are excellent.

Side note, certain large categories like best Picture, Director, Screenplays, Editing are still exciting. It’s the acting races and certain locked up techs (cinematography, sound, etc) that make it more predictable.

In Adapted, I think Zallian is actually behind Gerwig and Waititi right now. Gerwig has a strong narrative and Waititi is well-liked (see DGA) and his script is funny which is something the Academy at large often responds to in this category.

Updated with 1917

1917- B+

I think it’s best chances are in VFX and Adapted Screenplay, and I currently predict it will lose both. So yes, it’s Gangs of New York part 2.

The DGA as a guild might be enlightened enough to give Bong Director, but I think the second you open it up to the entire Academy it becomes a runaway award for Mendes.

Ford v. Ferrari- Tracy Letts’ breakdown

The Irishman- Frank’s party, its a perfect display of all three actors

Jojo Rabbit- Jojo’s mother’s shoes

Joker- “one more thing, when you bring me out, can you introduce me as Joker?”

Little Women- Jo’s scene in the attic talking with her mother

Marriage Story- the fight

1917- sprinting at…[Read more]

Holding on hope for this first set of predix for Parasite, even though hope is fading:

Picture: Parasite
Director: Mendes, 1917
– All 4 favorited actors –
O. Screenplay: Parasite
A. Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Editing: Ford v. Ferrari
Cinematography: 1917
Costume Design: Little Women
Make up/Hair: Joker
Production Design: 1917
Score: Joker
Song:…[Read more]

I think over 30 years since the last one. However, the thing about stats, and the way we use them here, is they are only valuable until they aren’t. The Academy isn’t just the Editor’s branch. With how weird and competitive this year is, I don’t think OUATIH and 1917 are disqualified for missing Editing.

This might sound bad, but I thought Little Women looked boring and a little sappy. I think part of that is because I’m a guy and that movie struggled with attracting men to the audience. On the contrary, I assumed 1917 would blow me away.

I couldn’t have been more wrong. Little Women is the most underrated of the nominees this year, and I end…[Read more]

I should’ve seen the snub coming. Regular people/audiences/industry clearly don’t like Hustlers.

The critics were soft on this movie.

Parasite in Picture and Original Screenplay

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Joker
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. The Irishman
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v. Ferrari

I enjoyed every nominee this year.

Most people love Thelma Schoonmaker and they don’t even realize it’s her work. Marty’s movies are beloved in part because Schoonmaker makes them fun and snappy to watch. It’s very emblematic of his style. In my opinion, the worst editing snub of the decade was that she didn’t get nominated for The Wolf of Wall Street.

She didn’t get nominated f…[Read more]

Yes it’s 5%

It’s hard to keep them all straight. I always forget one. Pryce is probably my 9, Murphy my 10. I currently have both Popes missing and the film missing in Picture.

I could see it getting Screenplay and a surprise tech or two.

I think this is by far the easiest category to predict of the acting races. Unless CC and SAG do something crazy I am gonna stick with this til nominations.

Erivo
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Zellweger

My guess is 8 simply because it’s easy to get to 8 with

Parasite
OUATIH
The Irishman
1917
Joker
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women

Everything after these eight feels more like a guess, which makes me think with the competition sucking up most of the air in the room, those final 9-10 nominees won’t be able to garner enough support.

I may…[Read more]