Of the big 5, for me personally, it goes

1. Driver
2. Alda
3. Johansson
4. Liotta
5. Dern

If you include Hagerty and Wever, I would put them at 2 and 3 and move everyone else down.

Where did you get to see it? Damn we don’t it where I live til the end of the month.

Ethan Hawke won every critics prize last year for First Reformed and he did not make the Oscar 5. Don’t look too deeply into what’s happened thus far. This is what the critics awards will try to do in certain categories. They attempt to turn the Academy’s attention to things they know the Academy will overlook.

In my opinion, they have less…[Read more]

Wait a second. I didn’t know who she was before just googling her but Anna Paquin is THAT daughter? Not even the one with effing lines and tears but the one who sulks the whole time? (Serious) Did she actually even say more than 10 words?

Hammad, I think you accidentally misquoted Stegeo for something I said. If you’re directing your comment towards me, I think De Niro’s competition is more of a challenge than the idea of Oscar #3. I don’t want to speak for Stegeo here, but I assume it is because giving someone like Driver or Phoenix an Oscar is more pressing than giving not e…[Read more]

I can do most underrated films. I think all of these are in my personal top 100 of the year which might be embarrassing but it’s my list lol.

50/50 (2011)
Crazy, Stupid, Love (2011)
Looper (2012)
The Place Beyond the Pines (2012)
Prisoners (2013)
Foxcatcher (2014)
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (2015)
War Dogs (2016)
Molly’s Game (2017)
The Flo…[Read more]

With respect to the Two Popes, I have it as an outside shot at 11th. I think it desperately needs Golden Globes to stand a chance, but I also think that it and Ford v. Ferrari are fighting for the same slot with the same demographic. I’d only predict one at the other’s exclusion, and whichever of the two lands at GG is the one I’ll have in Pictu…[Read more]

Yea I think a combination of factors would have to come into play for him to actually win. The Irishman would have to be a massive sweeper AND Joker and Marriage Story would have to cool off (which I think will happen for at least one of them).

Either way, I don’t think the Irishman will be a massive sweeper. It’s becoming clearer to me tha…[Read more]

Having finally seen the Irishman last night, I’m shocked people have been so cool on De Niro and his chances this year. I’ve seen some that even think he can miss. The entire last act that people love works because of De Niro’a performance. I’d wager he’s a lock for the nomination, and he’s not completely out of the conversation for the win.

So, I think Bombshell is solidly in the 10th spot right now. What I will say is that people drastically overestimate the impact that the whole Bombshell’s conservative, vindicating bad people, Fox News is evil, etc has. I don’t even know what to call it but you know what I mean. If it was a bunch of internet movie forum folks deciding or eve…[Read more]

Endgame
The Rise of Skywalker
1917
The Lion King
Ad Astra

1917 wins. People will point to Dunkirk but 1) the nomination system was different then and 2) Dunkirk is way more practical/understated as weird as it sounds. The Irishman feels like it’ll get Black Panthered because people complain about the effects like last year. Gemini Man is p…[Read more]

I’m ok with Parasite “underperforming” because if it was Roma levels of sweeping the critics awards all it would be doing is painting a big red X on its own back. Preferentially, Parasite still feels very strong. People don’t have a reason to strategically tank it yet, and I suspect the Anti-Netflixers and those who dont like The Irishman are alr…[Read more]

I never understand “race is over” people before we even really have any data points. The race is never over after NBR and NYFCC. You don’t even have to go that far back to see critics groups coming to a consensus only for televised awards voters to decide differently.

2018
BSA NBR: Sam Elliot
BSA NYFCC: Richard E. Grant
Oscar: Maher…[Read more]

The ones I’m sure I’ll be nominating:

Picture- Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH
Director- Bong, Wang, Tarantino, Aster
Actor- Driver, Phoenix, Harrison Jr. (Luce), DiCaprio
Actress- Pugh (Midsommar), Awkwafina
S. Actor- Pitt, Song
S. Actress- Shuzen, Lin, Park So-dam, Cho Yeo-jeong, Johansson (Jojo)
O. Screenplay- Parasite, The Farewell, OUA…[Read more]

Ya I think OUATIH has a very little chance of winning O. Screenplay. Parasite and Marriage Story are probably going head to head the whole season. Parasite has the edge in my mind.

He never actually was. OUATIH is the default easy one to check off in most categories back when everything else was unseen. I think most people think it’s likely for a nomination and that’s why it’s in the #1 slot and it’s GD odds are inflated because of that.

Scorsese, Bong, and Mendes are the only locks. I could even fathom a world where T…[Read more]

Don’t be so sad! I think it’s still winning. Despite being foreign language, it is the most universally beloved film of the year. It is an inspired critics choice and an audience favorite. If the Irishman doesn’t take it on the first round, I believe Parasite benefits the most from a preferential ballot system.

The Men
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
3. Kelvin Harrison Jr., Luce
4. Brad Pitt, OUATIH
5. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, OUATIH
7. Willem Defoe, The Lighthouse
8. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
9. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
10. RDJ, Avengers Endgame

The Ladies
1. Zhao Shuzen, The Farewell
2. Scarlett…[Read more]

I doubt she sweeps. I think there is a chance, and she could still win BSA at the Oscars, but I would be shocked and disappointed if every awards group checked her off. Doesn’t feel strong enough.

I don’t think it would signal that much strength. The nominee pool is normally four blockbusters and one best picture nominee OR movie that was in the best picture conversation at some point. Typically, the winner of this award is that movie- the one that is or feels like a BP nominee.

Given the crop of movies in the best picture c…[Read more]