[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203235019

I liked the Irishman a lot but I’d be upset if it won best picture. Oddly enough it seems like the critics movie of the year, but I wonder if the more mainstream Academy will take to it the same way. At the very least, I wonder if others will feel how I do about the film and while they enjoyed it, maybe they would want to recognize something else.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

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[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203233776

Drama: Irishman
Comedy: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Rationale: like the Oscars, screenplay and director nominations are the most important. Bohemian Rhapsody and Les Miserables are the only movies in the last decade that won best drama or comedy without a nomination in either. Screenplay misses make sense for musical movies and BoRap’s Director is obviously controversial.

In drama, all five films this year have either screenplay or director. Director is the more important nomination historically, with only BoRap missing director in the 2010s. This bodes well for 1917, The Irishman, and Joker and eliminates Marriage Story and Two Popes for me as neither director is controversial. Of those three remaining films, only The Irishman has both screenplay and director which the winner of drama has had 7/9 times the last decade. Excluding BoRap, The Revenant is the only drama film that had only Director but not screenplay. That bodes well for 1917 which should be your number 2.

In comedy, the director and screenplay overlap is less strong with 5/9 winners having both nominations. Unlike Drama, Screenplay is more important Director for Comedy winners with 7 out of 9 films having a screenplay nom. OUATIH is the only comedy film to have a screenplay nomination this year AND it also has a director nomination. That makes it a default number one. Jojo is second as a gut check.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

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[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203232298

babypook wrote:

Ok. So just how big is Jennifer Lopez in the music industry? I know she works like a fiend but I’ve only seen her movies. She’s been working for decades. Just how many naysayers could she possibly have among voters?
Is her celebrity going to help or hurt her?

I don’t think her celebrity hurts her, I think her movie does. The Academy might turn their nose up to it in favor of a bigger contender. She hasn’t missed yet so the snub would be shocking at this point, but the Academy does tend towards the pretentious historically.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

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[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203232262

smellycat wrote:

De Niro really isn’t that good, and suffers from the CGI. Pacino and Pesci are head and shoulders above him. In a crowded group. De Niro is missing out.

Bale I haven’t seen yet, but FvF is on a roll.

De Niro is the actor in the strongest movie though. Roma last year was a Top 2 film going into the night and it brought along its main stars. I think this alone is a reason why it’s unwise to bet against De Niro. Snub him if you will, I still think he’s likelier than Pryce, Murphy, Sandler, Banderas, and maybe even DiCaprio.

I think the same logic is why DiCaprio doesn’t get snubbed for his big movie, and why Song Kang Ho is not completely out of the running for a BSA nomination.

This isn’t a rule of course, but it is just playing the odds. If you’re an Irishman fan, you’re going to put it in a lot of categories. And I’m guessing a lot of people in the Academy are fans of The Irishman, Scorsese, and De Niro.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203231020

Matthew anzalone wrote:

The irishman has the most nominations with 4 (including the probaly most random stunt nomination in the history of SAG)

The Irishman’s stunt ensemble nomination is in recognition of all those old men falling down repeatedly and risking a broken hip. Very remnicent of 2018’s Mission Impossible Fallout and Tom Cruise’s ankle.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203230828

Marriage Story’s ensemble snub is truly baffling given it got nominated in three places (same as ASIB last year and that ended up making the lineup). I’ve been saying for a while that this movie was in for a similar awards trajectory as ASIB and I actually think it could go home empty handed if Dern doesn’t sweep.

If Dern wins it’ll have the exact same number of Oscars as ASIB on the night.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203230669

I don’t think a single expert had parasite in ensemble, this movie is coming people!

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203230632

John Berchmans wrote:

Supporting Actor

Jamie Foxx

Tom Hanks

Al Pacino

Joe Pesci

Brad Pitt

To everyone not predicting both Pacino and Pesci, it’s now time to realize they are both happening.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203220412

My unpopular opinion: Alan Alda is the best acting in Marriage Story. Followed by Ray Liotta. Laura Dern is last place among main characters.

Of the big 5, for me personally, it goes

1. Driver
2. Alda
3. Johansson
4. Liotta
5. Dern

If you include Hagerty and Wever, I would put them at 2 and 3 and move everyone else down.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203220332

JackO wrote:

Oh my god ya’ll. 1917. It’s good. Real good. Watch out.

Where did you get to see it? Damn we don’t it where I live til the end of the month.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203220328

Hector Raskolnikov wrote:

Sandman is getting stronger day by day, huh? He will be nominated, as I predicted months ago.

Ethan Hawke won every critics prize last year for First Reformed and he did not make the Oscar 5. Don’t look too deeply into what’s happened thus far. This is what the critics awards will try to do in certain categories. They attempt to turn the Academy’s attention to things they know the Academy will overlook.

In my opinion, they have less and less relevance every year as the Academy grows. An Academy member is unlikely to look for inspiration in the “Detroit Online Film Critics Nominees” or whoever all of 20 people none of whom are Academy voters decided on. But, I bet they watch the Globes!

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

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[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203220311

Hoster1 wrote:

That Anna Paquin nom is one of the most ridiculous nominations ever given in the history of all awards.

Wait a second. I didn’t know who she was before just googling her but Anna Paquin is THAT daughter? Not even the one with effing lines and tears but the one who sulks the whole time? (Serious) Did she actually even say more than 10 words?

• This reply was modified 1 week, 1 day ago by  Nikhil Nandu.
• This reply was modified 1 week, 1 day ago by  Nikhil Nandu.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203218090

Hammad Asif wrote:

You are absolutely right though why you are so repellent to the idea Oscar #3 for actors.

I mean there are people who have won 3 before or even more.

Hammad, I think you accidentally misquoted Stegeo for something I said. If you’re directing your comment towards me, I think De Niro’s competition is more of a challenge than the idea of Oscar #3. I don’t want to speak for Stegeo here, but I assume it is because giving someone like Driver or Phoenix an Oscar is more pressing than giving not even a second but a third to De Niro.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

Reply

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203218060

I can do most underrated films. I think all of these are in my personal top 100 of the year which might be embarrassing but it’s my list lol.

50/50 (2011)
Crazy, Stupid, Love (2011)
Looper (2012)
The Place Beyond the Pines (2012)
Prisoners (2013)
Foxcatcher (2014)
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (2015)
War Dogs (2016)
Molly’s Game (2017)
The Florida Project (2017)
Annihilation (2018)
Searching (2018)
The Peanut Butter Falcon (2019)
Doctor Sleep (2019)
Hotel Mumbai (2019)

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out

Reply

[NikhilParticipant Joined: Dec 9th, 2015 Topics: 6 Posts: 301 View Predictions]

#1203218000

Seven wrote:

Exactly. I don’t see any narrative for this movie

With respect to the Two Popes, I have it as an outside shot at 11th. I think it desperately needs Golden Globes to stand a chance, but I also think that it and Ford v. Ferrari are fighting for the same slot with the same demographic. I’d only predict one at the other’s exclusion, and whichever of the two lands at GG is the one I’ll have in Picture.

I just hope both don’t get in (or both miss) because then I’ll have to gut check and guess.

My personal Top 5 of 2019 so far:
1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) The Irishman 5) Knives Out