Nikhil
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September 20, 2019 at 9:19 am #1203088817
Late releases that made a splash at the Oscars.
2018: Vice
2017: Phantom Thread, The Post
2016: Hidden Figures
2015: The Revenant, The Big Short
2014: Selma, American Sniper.The list goes on and on. Bombshell and Little Women could easily be next.
True. But I think your forgetting one spot that belongs to 1917.
ReplySeptember 20, 2019 at 6:31 am #1203088487CYEFM missing Picture
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MPR missing Picture
Heller missing Director
Cooper missing Director
Davis missing Actress
Chalamet missing Supporting Actor
Foy missing Supporting ActressSeptember 20, 2019 at 6:12 am #1203088464Joaquin Phoenix- Winner
Antonio Banderas
Taron Edgerton
Adam DriverPryce ???? Im not sure.
Edgerton is not getting nominated given his competition. Pryce is way more likely. Edgerton will be happy with his GG nom though!
ReplySeptember 20, 2019 at 6:06 am #1203088451If Netflix manages to get in two or three Best Picture nominees* and the old guard that backlashed against Roma for Netflix reasons need to support a film to backlash, what will they go for? What is this year’s Green Book that benefits the most from anti-Netflix buzz?
* I don’t think The Two Popes is likely but it has a chance
So I don’t think Green Book won because of anti Netflix backlash (even if it may have been a factor), but I think it was more because Roma was the kind of movie everyone spoke publicly about how much they adored it and tanked it privately on their ballots because they didn’t really want it to win.
I haven’t seen Marriage Story yet, but I am assuming it is way more entertaining and accessible than Roma was. If Netflix ends up netting 3 films in best picture, it means whatever the bias is, people just like their movies. I don’t think they will vote against a movie they love just because it’s a Netflix film.
ReplySeptember 19, 2019 at 2:35 pm #1203087281The first trailer for this film surfaced yesterday. Ostensibly, the movie like the typical “Erin Brockovich” – like film which the Academy usually eats up.
What you all reckon?
Idk I’m not so high on Dark Waters. In general, I’m bored of this genre of movies like Spotlight, The Post, The Report. Don’t get me wrong I still liked Spotlight and the Post, but I just feel no draw to see this. I’m sure it’s fine, and it’ll have its one or two scenes for ruffalo to yell, and then the credits will roll with facts about the real events which will get a few “oh wow how terrible” from like five old people in the audience and then I’m gonna walk out of that theater and never think about it again.
ReplySeptember 19, 2019 at 2:25 pm #1203087265Darlings, I expect this movie to be a disgusting mess. Unfunny Waititi was TERRIBLE in the trailer and looks like the most annoying thing I’ve seen in cinema since Animatronic’s fake teeth (and “performance”) from last year. But it will be loved by snobs and “cinema experts”. Disgusting.
On the contrary, I think the snobs are gonna be the ones sharpening their knives, and the audience and regular people are going to really enjoy this.
ReplySeptember 19, 2019 at 2:22 pm #1203087255Is this saying snubs you supported like “I’m happy this got snubbed” or something you supported/liked that then got snubbed
ReplySeptember 19, 2019 at 9:40 am #1203086682They just moved McCarten’s Two Popes screenplay into the weakass Adapted field. Go get your 100/1 odds while you can.
ReplySeptember 19, 2019 at 6:52 am #1203086387I’m curious about its chances in director. The movie looks flashy, but it also resembles Wes Anderson’s style, so I don’t know how the Academy responds to that. He’s also acting in it which I think hurts his chances in director. Cinematography seems more likely.
As far as it’s nomination likelihood I’d say (from most to least likely):
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Picture
Costume Design
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Editing
Director
Actress/Supporting Actress (McKenzie)
Supporting ActorI could see this go the Three Billboards, Green Book route of
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Picture, Screenplay, Editing. It’s main issue is an acting nomination which seems unlikely at this point.September 18, 2019 at 10:14 am #1203084435I’m shocked at how thin Actress is this year
Erivo, Ronan, Awkwafina, Theron, and Woodward are fighting for three remaining spots. Not sure what Jojo is planning on doing for Thomasin McKenzie but a lead push doesn’t seem out of the cards…
I’m even starting to reconsider Queen and Slim now that it’s going to play at a festival
ReplySeptember 18, 2019 at 8:10 am #1203084224Assuming Joker is not in the best picture line up (currently predicting), Driver will remain the favorite and probably win the Oscar. This assumes Phoenix doesn’t go on a Julianne Moore Still Alice type sweep. This scenario is my prediction, so I think it is currently Driver’s to lose.
However, if Joker makes it into BP and Phoenix isn’t sweeping with Driver and Phoenix splitting prizes throughout the season, then I think it’s Phoenix’s to lose- the showier performance gets the edge.
Time will tell whether Joker makes it into lineups or not, but, I think this discussion is basically over if it does.
ReplySeptember 18, 2019 at 7:52 am #1203084188I think this is the first time I totally agreed with you. The underestimation of The Irishman feels odd considering the hype for other contenders.
People are still reeling from overpredicting Silence. They’re just being cautious this time around to pile on the praise prematurely (sweet accidental alliteration). I say fuck it, I hope this movie is amazing and I’m ready to get hurt again.
ReplySeptember 16, 2019 at 1:54 pm #1203080754Finished the festival, here are some thoughts:
Marriage Story
This was easily my favourite. ScarJo and Adam Driver feel like definite locks. Laura Dern was also hilarious as comedic relief. I think it’s got a very good shot at BP and director as well as screenplay.
Do you think Marriage Story is going to be well-liked by the large majority of audiences as well? Is it narratively satisfying (conventionally) or is it decidedly more art house? I think of movies like Roma or Phantom Thread or American Hustle for instance as movies that are respected more than they are loved, and I just wanted to know which camp Mareiage Story falls into. If it’s both, which way does it lean? I guess I have the same question for Parasite!
ReplySeptember 16, 2019 at 1:48 pm #1203080741Nobody expects this to make money at this point. They’re betting on whether this going to be an awards juggernaut, and that can help it recoup some of its cost.
That said, I heard showing after showing of this thing was sold out in NYC. Let’s hope it’s a Scorsese masterpiece and maybe it’ll surprise. It’s only showing for a short time in theaters so it’s numbers will appear higher on a per theater basis.
ReplySeptember 16, 2019 at 1:26 pm #1203080714Best Picture (by nomination, not win likelihood)
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1. Marriage Story
2. 1917
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. Little Women
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. The Irishman
8. Ford v. Ferrari
9. Waves
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10. Just Mercy
11. Joker
12. A Beautiful Day in the Neighbhorhood
13. The Farewell
14. The Two Popes
15. Bombshell
16. Queen and Slim
17. Knives Out
18. Ad Astra
19. Harriet
20. The Lighthouse
