Forum Replies Created
September 22, 2022 at 12:21 pm #1205094752
How is Li Jun Li still not in the predictions center? They released character posters for her and Jean Smart, and yet it’s Smart and Olivia Wilde in the predictions center?September 22, 2022 at 12:07 pm #1205094736
Within a day of being in the predictions center as a Lead Actress Michelle Williams has gone from 100/1 odds to 16/1. Meanwhile Carey Mulligan is down to 100/1.September 21, 2022 at 1:39 pm #1205093392
What is it adapted from? The documentary that co-scriptwriter and co-producer Keith Beauchamp had previously directed, which led to the reopening of the criminal investigation?
I believe Beauchamp having already made that documentary will be enough to classify it as adapted, though the more I try and look into it the less sure I am since neither it’s Wiki or IMDb page list it as an adaption of anything. I guess we’ll have to see where the studio submits it and where the Academy accepts it.September 21, 2022 at 10:09 am #1205092784
I don’t think it’s premature at all. If She Said ever was win competitive in any category, it would be in ATL categories. In looking at those categories, it’s clear She Said won’t be win competitive. Schrader just is not winning for Director. Polley’s got Adapted on lock. Actress is def not Kazan or Mulligan. And Supporting Actress has had Williams’ name attached since The Fabelmans was announced. Compare that to the stronger films that are in the winning conversation for at least one thing: Western Front (International Feature), Avatar (VFX), Babylon (Production Design), The Banshees of Inisherin (Original), Elvis (Actor), Everything Everywhere All at Once (Picture), The Fabelmans (Director), TAR (Actress), Maverick (Sound), The Whale (Actor), The Woman King (Actress), Women Talking (Adapted). As for whether there’s passion behind it, that is yet to be seen, but the trailer didn’t inspire much confidence. And if something with passion would get in, why wouldn’t it be the film that placed at TIFF or the Palme d’Or winner?
Women Talking is definitely not a lock to win Adapted Screenplay. It’s only September, it’s too early to declare that category locked when we haven’t even seen films like She Said and Till.September 16, 2022 at 1:22 pm #1205086607
TIFF People’s Choice Predictions
1. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
2. Women Talking
3. The Banshees of IsherinSeptember 14, 2022 at 3:40 pm #1205083935
I’m don’t think there’s anything else I could add to the conversation about Michelle Yeoh at this point so I’m going to bow out for now, but I’m a bit worried people are going to confuse my skepticism of a Yeoh nomination for rooting against her. I’m not saying she shouldn’t receive a nomination or that she for sure won’t. I’m just saying there’s reason to believe she’s not a lock for a nomination, that is all.September 14, 2022 at 3:29 pm #1205083919
But calling it an out-and-out sci-fi film leaves out what it’s doing as a family comedy-drama. Context and story matter. Being a warm, family-oriented film is relevant because it reflects the fact that it’s actually a pretty character-driven film. The multiverse isn’t the star. It’s possible to appreciate the spectacle of a film like Arrival and not connect to Adams’ character or think she’s the most compelling thing about it. If you like EEAAO enough to consider it for BP, you’ve already forgiven it for whatever genre it is. It’s hard to understand why you would check its box and not Yeoh’s. There are other action films on the slate this year.
Only actors decide acting nominations, every voter votes on Best Picture. If the Academy as a whole supports the film but the actors brach doesn’t the film can get Best Picture and not Best Actress.September 14, 2022 at 3:26 pm #1205083915
Maybe so but that’s not how Hollywood saw Parasite.
I think marketing is really important in these cases. Darren Aronofsky has similarly said he considers Black Swan a horror film, and I agree with him, but it was marketed as a prestige drama/thriller similar to Parasite. Even if they are arguably genre films, they weren’t marketed that way and that likely meant Academy voters didn’t see them that way.September 14, 2022 at 3:22 pm #1205083904
One thing I will say in favor of Yeoh is EEAAO being a film that didn’t cost much to make and made a lot of money has been good for the industry, in a way that few, if any, Best Actress contending films will be. I do that that absolutely helps her case, despite my personal skepticism on her nomination.September 14, 2022 at 3:02 pm #1205083880
But is EEAAO being marketed as a genre film? I think it’s cashing in on the genre-defying label. Even setting aside how prejudiced the Academy has been to Asian actors, Parasite’s cast was far less known than Yeoh is and Neon waited too late to start trying to push for them. I’m a little surprised you’re more confident about it landing Picture than Actress though, especially since I would expect that they’d go together given how much the film’s campaign is centered on Yeoh. I get the Arrival/Adams comparison, but EEAAO is a much warmer, family-oriented film. I honestly think the genre issue may hurt them most in Director.
EEAAO is absolutely being marketed as a genee film, the multiverse aspect has been central to the marketing. I’m not really sure what being a warm, family-oriented film has to do with Best Actress. Best Picture and Best Director have a much better recent track record of recognizing science fiction films than acting, hence why I think it’s likelier there.September 14, 2022 at 2:42 pm #1205083866
People in these communities keep missing the point when they try to infer from “history” or “stats”. Yes, action/comedy films have historically been overlooked at the Oscars. But it’s not necessarily because the voters have any kind of inherent contempt for the genre, and there are certainly no rules forbidding the Academy from recognizing films that happen to fall under this genre on paper. Reality is, EEAAO is a commercially successful, critically acclaimed crowd-pleaser that is widely regarded within the industry as a top contender for the Oscars. That in itself already defies the genre bias theorem. How many action/comedy films have ever gotten in this position before? Yes, tides could change and the industry could change its mind from now to January, but it won’t be because the voters suddenly decide “Well, it’s an amazing movie and she’s incredible in it, but it’s action/comedy so nope.”
I don’t believe voters who love hers or any other genre performance would automatically disqualify her because it’s science fiction. I do believe a large portion of the actor’s branch has a bias, whether conscious or unconscious, against performances in genre films and prefer the types of films we consistently see do well in the acting categories like biopics, historical dramas, and films about Hollywood.September 14, 2022 at 12:01 pm #1205083690
Honestly, their nominees are so boring that year. I would make my one and only adjustment in the annals of Oscar history here if I could, and went for something oddball. Debra Winger is an all-timer in Mike’s Murder, a film that was painfully underseen and a bit too bleak for them that year.
I love Redgrave, Lange, and Judy Davis in A Passage to India from the lineup, but Field and Sissy Spacek in The River give pretty one dimensional performances in bland films. My “oddball” pick from that year would’ve been the perpetually underrated Kathleen Turner in Romancing the Stone, I wouldn’t have given her the win but it’s an excellent and more complex performance than she gets credit for.September 14, 2022 at 11:56 am #1205083680
I’d love to have a discussion here on a civil level please. Those who aren’t predicting Yeoh, can you give me a reason other than her film isn’t Academy Friendly or Genre Bias? I’m legit curious, because I’m trying to find the only possible way she would ever miss here and that’s the only thing I can think of. Theres just no denying that magnificent performance. So I’m open to hearing from others not predicting her, why not?
There really isn’t a reason other than genre bias, but that’s why I’m not predicting her. The last actor nominated for a science fiction film was Brad Pitt in 12 Monkeys, and that was 27 years ago. In the last decade Arrival, Black Panther, Dune, Her, and Mad Max: Fury Road all failed to receive acting nominations despite Best Picture nominations, which is why I think a Best Picture nomination for Everything Everywhere All At Once is more in reach than acting nominations. It’s not impossible for Michelle Yeoh to overcome that, but in my opinion that is enough reason to be skeptical. After Amy Adams got every nomination she needed to get for Arrival and then missed in favor of Ruth Negga and Meryl Streep in traditional biopics I’m very skeptical of sci-fi performances getting nominated, no matter how much people like them. Time will tell for Yeoh, but there’s already no shortage of contenders, on top of those unseen, so for now I’m keeping her out of my predictions. I’m not trying to tell people they’re wrong for predicting her or to convince others to not predict her, just hoping this helps people understand why some like myself aren’t predicting a nomination.Not now