OscarWatcher1971
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April 1, 2022 at 5:05 am #1204892480
So much of the analysis here is so simplistic. Here’s my take
The Power of The Backlash: 11 reasons why it went so spectacularly wrong for the frontrunner.
There was a collective WOW on Oscar nomination morning. After it’s stunning festival & critics run and winning Golden Globe Picture & Director, the question everyone had- would AMPAS go for The Power Of The Dog?- appeared answered- hell, yes. Leading the nominations by 2, getting the second supporting actor nod, sound and especially production design, it definitely over-performed.
And what’s more, all the competitors missed things. Belfast missed editing, cinematography & Balfe, Dune missed directing, West Side Story missed editing, and no one was talking about the 9th place film that missed editing and directing and scored a tiny 3 noms.
Fast forward a month and the powerhouse wins only Director from 12 noms and the “little film that could” wins Best Picture.
How the hell did this happen? Here’s my take on 11 reasons why, which came together in a “perfect storm”.
1. Over-nomination is a curse.
See La La Land. And Roma. Inevitably, the “it’s not THAT good” discussion ensues, and the haters are especially emboldened to criticise the film.
2 Everyone wants a close race. Drama generates clicks and no one wanted a predictable race, especially after Nomadland. All season, it was TPOTD v Belfast, new releases came and went, and Belfast kept stumbling until nomination day, when it was clear it wasn’t as strong a contender as thought. The punditry needed a new #2. And they needed a close race.
3. The “unpopular” narrative.
From the initial Letterboxd reviews, TPOTD suffered from the “ordinary filmgoers don’t like it” narrative, which always made it a vulnerable frontrunner. Despite being runner up at TIFF, being #1 globally on Netflix and, amazingly, making the #OscarsFanFavorite Top 10, the perception of lack of popularity always made it a vulnerable contender. Let’s face it, a Jane Campion take on a Thomas Savage novel was NEVER going to be for the masses. God, no.
4. That damn SAG ensemble. Until Shape, Green book & Nomadland, a SAG ensemble nom was seen as an important precursor. Despite TPOTD getting 3 individual noms, it still missed ensemble. And CODA’s surprise win there- who knows, it may have just beaten Belfast, propelled it in the race.
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth underperformed. It is clear that TTOM was Apple’s big, prestige contender, but it was clear on nomination morning that it had no chance of any major awards, allowing Apple to focus on CODA.
6. The Sam Elliot controversy. Many, including me, thought the wall to wall coverage of let’s face it a very obscure radio spot, at a time when all the talk became CODA post-SAG, was a gift to the TPOTD campaign. It wasn’t. Because it legitimised criticism of the film. And the campaign’s initial perfect response “only another man” morphed into direct attacks on him by the actors including McPhee’s belittling “I laughed”, and culminated in Campion’s DGA B-I-T-C-H takedown, which Twitter loved, but in retrospect was bitchy itself, “he’s an actor” used as an insult. And it was made worse that no other contender had this negative coverage. And Hollywood really doesn’t like gay cowboys, right?
7. Campion’s Critics Choice speech. After a golden weekend, when TPOTD has won DGA, BAFTA BP/BD & Critics Choice BP/BD as voting was about to open, this should have been TPOTD’s march to Oscar glory. Campion effusively praised the Williams sisters before her off-the-cuff, you don’t have to play against the men remark. It was a poor choice of words, she shouldn’t even have been focussed on another contender so much, and by God everyone was ready to take her down. The reaction was furious and intense, and the single thing that probably harmed the film’s chances the most. Jane Campion is not racist, and she did not mean to diminish the black experience. Both Williams sisters cheered loudly when she made the joke, but it didn’t matter, the clip was taken out of contest and Campion was ripped to shreds. And it wasn’t just the racist narrative. She seemed overly feminist (you need to be a quiet feminist) and conceited in her speeches. I still can’t believe Netflix with all their campaign dollars didn’t workshop speeches with Campion, or maybe they did and she went off script. Her actual Oscar speech, humble and gracious, and her comments in her post-Oscars interview, were pitch-perfect but too late.
8. The Campaigns Netflix made a few big mistakes. They gloated after nomination day, and emphasised all the awards the film had won. This seemed arrogant and encouraged backlash. A more humble campaign, particularly focussing on the human stories in the film- husband-wife, mother-son, would have worked better. And perhaps due to the stat-busting that seemed impossible, they underestimated CODA. Where was the campaign against CODA? And Apple. Full marks to them for having CODA EVERYWHERE. The history-making angle whilst a bit disingenuous given The Sound of Metal had been honoured last year and CODA was a direct rip off of La Famille Belier, was perfect and who can kick a puppy, right? They had the money too. And the reach, which CODA from a smaller outfit would not have been able to have. How did the campaign get away with airbrushing La Famille Belier from history? I think more voters knowing it was a scene for scene remake could have made a real impact. The Feel Good Factor at a time of pandemic, Ukraine and ongoing evidence of Jan 6insurrection was just what people wanted.
9. <b> The pundits are the players. </b> Clayton Davis particularly but others such as Scott Menzel, actively campaigned for CODA in a way that was almost unprecedented. Pushing CODA to the top after only SAG was premature but planted the seed that it was a top contender and by God did it pay off.
10. AMPAS really hates Netflix. Roma, The Irishman, and TPOTD, 32 nominations, 4 wins. WOW. Granted, there is 2 Best Directors there, but still a long way to go, and Apple’s win showed its an anti-Netflix rather than an anti-streamer bias.
11. That pesky preferential ballot.
TPOTD won plurality votes everywhere, including against CODA at GG and CC and lost the 2 preferential to CODA. TPOTD won every preferential simulation I saw. But they weren’t AMPAS voters. Certainly CODA was better suited to the preferential votes as I’m sure many voters also vote strategically eg putting TPOTD deliberately lower, to see another choice win, even if neither is their #1. AMPAS doesn’t release results so we will never know how close any of those votes were. “”So as we Dog Stans emerge, battered and bruised, let’s celebrate this masterpiece that will be discussed in years to come and will age very well. And Jane Campion is an Oscar winner for Best Director; I honestly never thought I would see that happen. And TPOTD won over 190 awards, the most awarded film ever including DGA and Best Picture at AACTA, BAFTA & Critic’s Choive. And let’s remind ourselves that the Oscars have never been, and will never be, about what’s best, but always about the flavour of the moment.
ReplyMarch 20, 2022 at 2:25 pm #1204862265-Won PGA/SAG ensemble
-Lost Globe
-Missed in Director & Editing with AMPAS
-Won Best Supporting Actor Oscar
-Lost(?) Best Picture pic.twitter.com/zQVbPygW6H— John T (@TMROJ) March 20, 2022
March 18, 2022 at 9:28 pm #1204858738It had 8 films with more noms than it. You have to credit Apple’s campaign post-SAF & the pundits they’ve been able to get on board.
I still can’t see how a film can go from 3 noms to the win. Has it’s esteem grown that much? Does a BAFTA screenplay win mean that much?
March 18, 2022 at 9:06 pm #1204858727Campaign focused on adapted screenplay & cinematography today
BEST PICTURE WINNER for BAFTA & Critics Choice Awards 🌟12 #AcademyAward nominations including Best Picture.
Read #ThePowerOfTheDog’s adapted screenplay here: https://t.co/68O7UG1X9p pic.twitter.com/gf1iEZ1B4K
— The Power Of The Dog (@TPOTD) March 18, 2022
I thought the campaign against TPOTD would be ending with an anti-streaming anti-Netflix push, but instead we’ve got one streamer against another !
March 18, 2022 at 8:11 pm #1204858674Belfast was the clear alternative pre-SAG. Most of the Belfast pundits then shifted to CODA. Some like Clayton Davis shifted from Belfast to CODA to TPOTD back to CODA.
Again, winning all the major awards last weekend is NOT underperforming
March 18, 2022 at 7:52 pm #1204858645How is winning DGA, BAFTA/Critics Choice Best Picture and Director downward momentum?
March 18, 2022 at 7:26 pm #1204858619Look at who is pushing it. The Belfast crew shifted directly to CODA
March 18, 2022 at 7:21 pm #1204858616Dirty tag-team campaigning by Variety & Apple, publishing a rehash of the Campion speech story.
March 18, 2022 at 6:41 pm #1204858578“I’m just completely wowed by her”: Nicole Kidman, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and others open up about Jane Campion’s influence—and why #ThePowerOfTheDog’s acclaim is so earned. https://t.co/XwNiCQAsDQ
— Vanity Fair’s Awards Insider (@HWD) March 18, 2022
March 18, 2022 at 3:02 am #1204857240She praised the American icons. She gushed about them. She apologised & praised them again. If that’s the real reason, it’s Disingenuous at best.
The publishing of selective secret ballots to generate clicks, and try to influence voters at this stage is disgraceful.
March 18, 2022 at 2:45 am #1204857226AMPAS loved TPOTD- it over performed.
To suggest Campion & the film might lose because, in a speech gushing about the Williams sisters she made a quip about playing against men that they cheered about, insults everyone’s intelligence.
March 18, 2022 at 2:38 am #1204857221We can’t know how CODA will be perform on the preferential ballot unless it wins PGA. On the partial preferential ballot here it finished 8th and at Awards Daily 9th- it’s eliminated too early to get any preferences.
March 18, 2022 at 12:10 am #1204857126CODA is having a surge in advertising. Propped up by pundits who want clicks. Up to this point it has only won SAG ensemble & BAFTA adapted screenplay in terms of major awards, outside of Kotsur, who is locked for the win.
It has less going for it awards & nominations-wise than any other main challenger in recent memory.
March 17, 2022 at 10:03 pm #1204856964Each year they vote for what they like best. Perhaps their alignment this year (like last year) shows the particular strength of one film.
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