[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205281225

My current predicted winners…

(I know it’s foolish to bet against Succession in Writing but we’re early enough that I’m gonna go for the more surprising pick. If Better Call Saul wasn’t almost guaranteed to oversubmit and have multiple episodes nominated, I’d predict it.)

SERIES:

ACTOR:

ACTRESS:

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

WRITING:

DIRECTING:

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205281202

The first PEN15 writing nomination (while very deserved) felt incredibly random on the day of.

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205279837

Strange that Apple hasn’t dropped a release date yet for Masters of the Air, but the fact that it seemingly wrapped production a while ago and was front and center in their recent promotional ad makes me think it’ll be announced any day now. We’ll probably get a mid to late March release date and a trailer premiere during the Oscars so they can slap “Academy Award nominees Austin Butler, Barry Keoghan, and Steven Spielberg” on it.

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205279805

Emmy voters when I bribe them all into voting for Rose Byrne

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205278964

Praying that The Other Two can get Schitt’s Creek’d.

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205256700

The Menu in Picture… we are starting to crack. Announce the nominations now before we all truly go insane!!!

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205256696

And no clue what’s going on in that last slot LMAO. Am I overthinking and JLC is there after all? Jessie Buckley comeback like last year? Nina Hoss? Michelle Williams pulling a Lakeith? A crazy surprise like Lashana Lynch? I change my mind every two hours…

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205256676

Moviebuff22 wrote:

Does Tobey get credited with an oscar nomination of Babylon gets into BP?

No. To receive a nomination, you have to have received a simple “producer” credit (not “executive producer” or “co-producer” or anything like that). Tobey was an executive producer, so he’d miss out. This is also why Brad Pitt wouldn’t be a nominee if Women Talking made the lineup, as he was an executive producer through his production company Plan B Entertainment. However, Frances McDormand would! It all just comes down to who actually put in the work to getting the movie made, as a lot of those producer credits with prefixes can be vanity credits easily slapped on trailers.

Babylon’s nominated team would just be Olivia Hamilton, Marc Platt, and Matthew Plouffe. (Fun fact that I found out doing this research: Hamilton plays the “two beats, then tear” female director of Nellie La Roy’s first film, also making her one of the SAG Ensemble nominees! Very cool!)

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205255745

BurgerFriesSoda wrote:

And then here are the Supporting Actor nominees that got nominated for BAFTA, Golden Globes, and SAG and then missed the Oscar nomination since 2000…

He’s even getting snubbed from statistic lists…

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205255703

How I see nomination numbers shaking out. Italicized films are the Best Picture nominees.

(I think The Whale will be Ma Rainey 2.0 and be win-competitive for a few categories but still miss out in Picture)

Everything Everywhere All at Once (10)
All Quiet on the Western Front (9)
The Banshees of Inisherin (7)
The Fabelmans (7)
Babylon (6)
Elvis (6)
Top Gun: Maverick (6)
Avatar: The Way of Water (5)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)
TÁR (4)
The Whale (4)
The Woman King (4)
The Batman (3)
Women Talking (3)
Aftersun (2)
Empire of Light (1)
Glass Onion (1)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (3)
Living (1)
Nope (1)
RRR (1)
She Said (1)
Tell It Like a Woman (1)
Thirteen Lives (1)
Till (1)

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205255689

Throwing all caution to the wind and putting The Woman King into Picture. No guts no glory, am I right?

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205255687

Deluding myself into thinking she still has a chance…

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205254620

Am I going to enjoy it when Stephanie Hsu gets the nomination she’s had locked and loaded since SAG?

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205254413

One thing I am VERY happy about from this season is the fact that the acting nominees will likely be an overwhelming number of first-timers! The only category that isn’t super likely to be at least 4/5 Oscar newcomers is Best Actress, which is honestly pretty awesome.

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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[Heptapod Joined: Sep 8th, 2021 Topics: 3 Posts: 1009 View Predictions]

#1205254395

Eddie Redmayne is giving me Ruth Negga vibes. He’s a well-liked familiar awards name (Globe boost) from the UK (BAFTA boost) with built-in visibility from being in a Netflix movie (SAG boost). His performance is well-liked, but he’s no one’s favorite, and no one really gives a s**t about his movie other than his performance. I hate myself for comparing meh-sterpiece The Good Nurse to masterpiece Passing, but the two performers seem similarly positioned, vulnerable to someone from a more popular film (like Pitt or Hirsch).

This is applicable to all categories, but it feels especially relevant here: we shouldn’t let ourselves become too swayed by BAFTA snubs. They almost always get the eventual winner in there, but half the nominees are chosen by a jury (Redmayne almost certainly being one of those “saves” this year), and they didn’t get all 5 Oscar nominees in any category last year.

FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)

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