Forum Replies Created
February 2, 2023 at 12:37 pm #1205281225
My current predicted winners…
(I know it’s foolish to bet against Succession in Writing but we’re early enough that I’m gonna go for the more surprising pick. If Better Call Saul wasn’t almost guaranteed to oversubmit and have multiple episodes nominated, I’d predict it.)
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)February 2, 2023 at 12:30 pm #1205281202
The first PEN15 writing nomination (while very deserved) felt incredibly random on the day of.
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)February 1, 2023 at 12:07 pm #1205279837
Strange that Apple hasn’t dropped a release date yet for Masters of the Air, but the fact that it seemingly wrapped production a while ago and was front and center in their recent promotional ad makes me think it’ll be announced any day now. We’ll probably get a mid to late March release date and a trailer premiere during the Oscars so they can slap “Academy Award nominees Austin Butler, Barry Keoghan, and Steven Spielberg” on it.
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)February 1, 2023 at 11:51 am #1205279805
Emmy voters when I bribe them all into voting for Rose ByrneJanuary 31, 2023 at 8:26 pm #1205278964
Praying that The Other Two can get Schitt’s Creek’d.January 21, 2023 at 6:19 pm #1205256700
The Menu in Picture… we are starting to crack. Announce the nominations now before we all truly go insane!!!January 21, 2023 at 6:17 pm #1205256696
And no clue what’s going on in that last slot LMAO. Am I overthinking and JLC is there after all? Jessie Buckley comeback like last year? Nina Hoss? Michelle Williams pulling a Lakeith? A crazy surprise like Lashana Lynch? I change my mind every two hours…January 21, 2023 at 6:07 pm #1205256676
Does Tobey get credited with an oscar nomination of Babylon gets into BP?
No. To receive a nomination, you have to have received a simple “producer” credit (not “executive producer” or “co-producer” or anything like that). Tobey was an executive producer, so he’d miss out. This is also why Brad Pitt wouldn’t be a nominee if Women Talking made the lineup, as he was an executive producer through his production company Plan B Entertainment. However, Frances McDormand would! It all just comes down to who actually put in the work to getting the movie made, as a lot of those producer credits with prefixes can be vanity credits easily slapped on trailers.
Babylon’s nominated team would just be Olivia Hamilton, Marc Platt, and Matthew Plouffe. (Fun fact that I found out doing this research: Hamilton plays the “two beats, then tear” female director of Nellie La Roy’s first film, also making her one of the SAG Ensemble nominees! Very cool!)January 20, 2023 at 8:55 pm #1205255745
And then here are the Supporting Actor nominees that got nominated for BAFTA, Golden Globes, and SAG and then missed the Oscar nomination since 2000…
He’s even getting snubbed from statistic lists…January 20, 2023 at 8:00 pm #1205255703
How I see nomination numbers shaking out. Italicized films are the Best Picture nominees.
(I think The Whale will be Ma Rainey 2.0 and be win-competitive for a few categories but still miss out in Picture)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (10)
All Quiet on the Western Front (9)
The Banshees of Inisherin (7)
The Fabelmans (7)
Top Gun: Maverick (6)
Avatar: The Way of Water (5)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)
The Whale (4)
The Woman King (4)
The Batman (3)
Women Talking (3)
Empire of Light (1)
Glass Onion (1)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (3)
She Said (1)
Tell It Like a Woman (1)
Thirteen Lives (1)
Till (1)January 20, 2023 at 7:46 pm #1205255689
Throwing all caution to the wind and putting The Woman King into Picture. No guts no glory, am I right?January 20, 2023 at 7:44 pm #1205255687
Deluding myself into thinking she still has a chance…January 19, 2023 at 8:14 pm #1205254620
Am I going to enjoy it when Stephanie Hsu gets the nomination she’s had locked and loaded since SAG?January 19, 2023 at 4:43 pm #1205254413
One thing I am VERY happy about from this season is the fact that the acting nominees will likely be an overwhelming number of first-timers! The only category that isn’t super likely to be at least 4/5 Oscar newcomers is Best Actress, which is honestly pretty awesome.January 19, 2023 at 4:28 pm #1205254395
Eddie Redmayne is giving me Ruth Negga vibes. He’s a well-liked familiar awards name (Globe boost) from the UK (BAFTA boost) with built-in visibility from being in a Netflix movie (SAG boost). His performance is well-liked, but he’s no one’s favorite, and no one really gives a s**t about his movie other than his performance. I hate myself for comparing meh-sterpiece The Good Nurse to masterpiece Passing, but the two performers seem similarly positioned, vulnerable to someone from a more popular film (like Pitt or Hirsch).
This is applicable to all categories, but it feels especially relevant here: we shouldn’t let ourselves become too swayed by BAFTA snubs. They almost always get the eventual winner in there, but half the nominees are chosen by a jury (Redmayne almost certainly being one of those “saves” this year), and they didn’t get all 5 Oscar nominees in any category last year.Not now