[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205321346

Fraser needs a hug more than Oscar if he’s gonna be crying every time he gets up the stage. But happy for him for that SAG win, and hope his career and life is where he wants to be now, with or without the Oscar.

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205321252

kamila wrote:

SAG showed their power and influence tonight. It will be hard for AMPAS to not think about these winners when voting, even if they decide to go a different way. I just hope the Oscars take note of how this ceremony flowed. IMO SAGs are the most credible award show out there right now in terms of honoring the films and nominees. Such a well run show. They deserve to be the last show before the Oscars. And it’s not just Netflix because the show was good last year too.

Only 3 films won SAG tonight, that’s literally terrible in terms of honoring films and nominees

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205321063

jjjmoss wrote:

well, winslet won 2/3 major precursors twice. steve globe + bafta sense bafta + sag

diff category (Supporting Actress) diff precursor wins and she lost CC for both of them so not comparable

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205321042

Lol Cate’s having her Elizabeth 2.0 (3.0 cuz she obviously got nominated for the Elizabeth Sequel) run to the tee where she won BAFTA + CC + GG Drama, while the other contender won GG Comedy + SAG.  (Goop, Yeoh). She obviously lost last time to the one who was in a BP winner but let’s see if she loses again, nobody has lost twice with this precursor run yet.

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205321025

Kerry is probab going to win now but prob barely. Angela and Jamie are definitely gonna be splitting the career/narrative/overdue votes and split the pick your better friend votes to win lol, which lets be real they will have overlapping friends since they’re from the same generation. and I doubt international voters have that big of a fondness for either of them as evident from AACTA/BAFTA results and their respective movies. didn’t we just argue Andrea Riseborough got the nom through her network, so not sure how their friends will be able to decisively pick which of the Jamie/Angela will win.

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205320963

So the only 2 BP nominee that won SAG tonight is EEAAO and Top Gun. Literally every BP nominee besides Top Gun sank tonight. EEAAO might’ve been the only Bp nominee to win SAG if it didn’t randomly miss Stunt (which it should’ve gotten in)

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205279816

I mean strategically speaking, if u want specifically 1 person to get a nomination, it makes no sense to put on your ballot their closest competition. If the nomination goes by how often someone shows up on a ballot, then obviously nobody is gonna put on their ballot their closest competitors so their personal #1 has an easier time of winning the eventual Oscar. If it goes by how often someone gets #1 votes, then it’s the same, ud vote for ur #1 and have 4 throwaway contenders to have weaker competition for ur fave and not put on the ballot your closest competitor. I assume that could’ve been the case for Andrea where other passionate voters for other contenders with the same mentality all slotting in Andrea somewhere in their ballot over the some of the others (Danielle/Viola/Michelle’s/etc) assuming she’s going to be a throwaway but at least not a vote for the competition to get in and eventually she showed up on a lot of #1 when/if some of their personal #1 fell out and became a #1 vote for Andrea and then her name showed up on more ballots with the original #1 passionate Andrea voters eventually leading to an actual nomination. I don’t think most voters vote like this but I assume that’s exactly how some including the Frances Fischer and the #1 Andrea voters probably casted their ballot and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of them purposely left off the other 4 eventual nominees, assuming others got the others covered, which she kind of hinted at.

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[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205279744

kamila wrote:

Pan’s Labyrinth is exactly what I’ve had in mind. It’s a different BAFTA now, but The Quiet Girl should still get credit for its longlist performance and for actually landing the Adapted Screenplay nomination without any jury pull. This is a very competitive category this year, and given All Quiet’s opportunities to win elsewhere, I could see some interest in wealth-spreading.

Yeah but Lives of Others won NYFCC and LAFCC over Pans and got in Pic, Director, Screenplay and Actor at BAFTA (similar noms to AQOTWF without Craft) while Quiet Girl only got the additional screenplay nom at BAFTA and Pans was much stronger than Quiet Girl at BAFTA and Oscar’s (evident by the noms) and still got in CC and Globes while Quiet Girl didn’t even get in the latter 2.

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205279693

Regardless of controversy, if too many emails is the breaking point for an organization to ban/rescind people’s nominations but studio’s hosted expensive dinners/parties, paid FYC screenings, and under the table offers are all acceptable, its embarrassing for anyone to take any organization seriously if the nomination was actually rescinded. Doesn’t mean the organization shouldn’t update the rules if they weren’t being followed. Let’s not pretend the studios only performed shady bribery on GG voters (for decades) but not Oscar voters, when an Oscar nom is going to carry way more weight than a fucking GG nomination for anyone’s career.

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[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205279674

kamila wrote:

Given some of the passion for other films in the category, I don’t think All Quiet winning International Film is completely locked up. I’m looking at how The Quiet Girl ends up doing with BAFTA.

The closest comparison to that would be Pans Labryinth losing FLF to Lives of Others when it had 6 oscar noms and 3 wins vs the 1 nom for Lives of Others. But Lives of Other did much better than The Quiet Girl  at BAFTa. Funnily enough, Lives of Others was German submission that year and AQOTWF is the German submission this year and has a BP nom so I think it’s pretty safe to win FLF

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205273060

Chloe Sevigny stan <3 wrote:

Why is that on Andrea and not De Armas or Williams or the Academy who had FIVE nominee choices but left them out?

because Ana was able to co-exist with both Deadwyler and Davis nominated in a lineup at BAFTA and SAG, while Williams was in a presumable BP front runner so on paper she should be able to get in and knock out anyone from a lineup if that movie was supposed to win BP, and was hyped for months to win an Oscar in acting (even if it’s the wrong category).

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205272834

I actually think with the exclusion of Viola and Danielle, if the voters want a POC to win lead actress, it makes it much easier for the voters to centralize all their votes for Yeoh that would’ve originally voted for Danielle and/or Viola for that to happen.

also some of y’all so dismissive of Danielle getting nominated in the future. She hasn’t even been snubbed for a week or had a follow up project out yet and y’all doing too much saying she will/can never win.

[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205272660

Theyll prob get Tom Cruise to present something. Prob would’ve been picture if he wasn’t nominated himself. I’m assuming he will present Best Director or Best Actress.

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[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205272611

Lol this just screams some people’s Stan groups are sore losers and we know the PR firms and studios are fucking pissed they got outplayed and had overpaid for marketing and campaigning over someone who just had friends and colleagues vote her in.

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[Honey Joined: Jan 30th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 420 View Predictions]

#1205267852

Feel bad for Paul Dano, this is the 3rd time he was in a top 3 BP nominee and he got precursor run for 2 of them + including Love & Mercy and he’s missed all 3x and still never nominated. Thought he had the harder role than Michelle William and Judd Hirsch .

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