[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204964708

kamila wrote:

I’m surprised people here don’t think there could be some musical fatigue after last year.

Agreed. (But then again, I’m surprised almost every year that there isn’t some biopic fatigue….)

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204964689

kbc wrote:

No. He’d be fifth youngest – on Oscar day he’d be 31 and older than Brody, Dreyfuss, Brando and Schell when they won.

I’ve corrected my post. My original point still stands; he’d be the youngest male lead actor Oscar winner in what— about 20 years, and the second youngest in about 45 years?

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204964510

He’s 30.  (Bd: August 17, 1991)

*corrected*

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204964447

MysticMagix wrote:

Cant wait to see austin win

I’m not AT ALL saying it is impossible but he’s young for a Best Actor winner.  An age bias in this category does seem to exist. The 5 youngest Best Actor Oscar winners in history are:

Adrian Brody 29 (The Pianist, 2002)

Richard Dreyfuss 30 (The Goodbye Girl, 1977)

Marlon Brando 30 (On The Waterfront, 1954)

Maximilian Schell 31 (Judgment at Nuremberg, 1961)

Nicholas Cage 32 (Leaving Las Vegas,  1995)

 

 

 

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204964392

+10 Mulligan, Pike, Rampling
-10 Colman, Blanchett, Blanchett

Olivia Colman, The Favourite (960)

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (950)

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (890)

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (180)

Cate Blanchett, Carol (150)

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (90)

Eliminated:
60. Nicole Kidman, Being The Ricardos
59. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
58. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
57. Charlize Theron, Bombshell
56. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
55. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
54. Amy Adams, American Hustle
53. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
52. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
51. Emma Stone, La La Land
50. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
49. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
48. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of The Southern Wild
47. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
46. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
45. Brie Larson, Room
44. Renée Zellweger, Judy
43. Meryl Streep, August Osage County
42. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
41. Felicity Jones, The Theory Of Everything
40. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
39. Annette Bening, The Kids Are Alright
38. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
37. Natalie Portman, Jackie
36. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
35. Meryl Streep, The Post
34. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
33. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
32. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
31. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
30. Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
29. Viola Davis, The Help
28. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
27. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
26. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
25. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
24. Glenn Close, The Wife
23. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
22. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
21. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
20. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
19. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
18. Ruth Negga, Loving
17. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
16. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
15. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
14. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
13. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
12. Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
11. Judi Dench, Philomena
10. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
09. Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
08. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
07. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204964390

+10 Dench, Mulligan
-10 Staunton, Streep

Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal (1595)

Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake (470)

Carey Mulligan, An Education (440)

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada (380)

Eliminated:
50) Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
49) Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
48) Kate Winslet, The Reader
47) Samantha Morton, In America
46) Nicole Kidman, The Hours
45) Juliette Binoche, Chocolat
44) Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
43) Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
42) Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
41) Annette Bening, Being Julia
40) Elliot Page, Juno
39) Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
38) Charlize Theron, North Country
37) Joan Allen, The Contender
36) Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
35) Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
34) Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
33) Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
32) Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
31) Angelina Jolie, Changeling
30) Helen Mirren, The Queen
29) Helen Mirren, The Last Station
28) Charlize Theron, Monster
27) Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
26) Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
25) Diane Lane, Unfaithful
24) Melissa Leo, Frozen River
23) Judi Dench, Iris
22) Meryl Streep, Doubt
21) Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
20) Kate Winslet, Little Children
19) Laura Linney, The Savages
18) Salma Hayek, Frida
17) Julie Christie, Away From Her
16) Sissy Spacek, In The Bedroom
15) Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
14) Laura Linney, You Can Count On Me
13) Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
12) Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
11) Renée Zellweger, Chicago
10) Ellen Burstyn, Requiem For A Dream
09) Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
08) Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
07) Penélope Cruz, Volver
06) Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge!
05) Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204962917

+10 Mulligan, Pike, Rampling
-10 Colman, Blanchett, Blanchett

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (920)

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (900)
Olivia Colman, The Favourite (900)

Cate Blanchett, Carol (200)

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (160)

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (110)

Eliminated:
60. Nicole Kidman, Being The Ricardos
59. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
58. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
57. Charlize Theron, Bombshell
56. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
55. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
54. Amy Adams, American Hustle
53. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
52. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
51. Emma Stone, La La Land
50. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
49. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
48. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of The Southern Wild
47. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
46. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
45. Brie Larson, Room
44. Renée Zellweger, Judy
43. Meryl Streep, August Osage County
42. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
41. Felicity Jones, The Theory Of Everything
40. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
39. Annette Bening, The Kids Are Alright
38. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
37. Natalie Portman, Jackie
36. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
35. Meryl Streep, The Post
34. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
33. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
32. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
31. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
30. Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
29. Viola Davis, The Help
28. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
27. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
26. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
25. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
24. Glenn Close, The Wife
23. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
22. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
21. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
20. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
19. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
18. Ruth Negga, Loving
17. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
16. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
15. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
14. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
13. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
12. Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
11. Judi Dench, Philomena
10. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
09. Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
08. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
07. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204962912

+10 Dench, Mulligan
-10 Zellweger, Streep, Staunton

Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal (1525)

Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake (460)

Carey Mulligan, An Education (430)

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada (410)

Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary (70)

Eliminated:
50) Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
49) Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
48) Kate Winslet, The Reader
47) Samantha Morton, In America
46) Nicole Kidman, The Hours
45) Juliette Binoche, Chocolat
44) Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
43) Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
42) Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
41) Annette Bening, Being Julia
40) Elliot Page, Juno
39) Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
38) Charlize Theron, North Country
37) Joan Allen, The Contender
36) Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
35) Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
34) Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
33) Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
32) Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
31) Angelina Jolie, Changeling
30) Helen Mirren, The Queen
29) Helen Mirren, The Last Station
28) Charlize Theron, Monster
27) Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
26) Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
25) Diane Lane, Unfaithful
24) Melissa Leo, Frozen River
23) Judi Dench, Iris
22) Meryl Streep, Doubt
21) Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
20) Kate Winslet, Little Children
19) Laura Linney, The Savages
18) Salma Hayek, Frida
17) Julie Christie, Away From Her
16) Sissy Spacek, In The Bedroom
15) Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
14) Laura Linney, You Can Count On Me
13) Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
12) Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
11) Renée Zellweger, Chicago
10) Ellen Burstyn, Requiem For A Dream
09) Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
08) Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
07) Penélope Cruz, Volver
06) Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge!

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204962462

roger88 wrote:

This is exactly what I mentioned prior. The reception of Decision to Leave outside anglosphere has been actually mixed. Some of the really harsh reviews came from French and German critics and also the Chinese grid has it as the lowest reviewed film. This is like Desplechin with French raving the film but overseas…

Well, FWIW, for Oscar prediction purposes, it may be useful to keep in mind that critics aren’t AMPAS members, and while AMPAS membership has significantly expanded in the last decade, there are still FAR more members from the “anglosphere” than members from “non-anglosphere” countries.

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204962451

Cannes Metacritic scores thus far:

Decision to Leave: 90
Aftersun: 90
All That breathes: 87
Corsage: 81
Top Gun: Maverick: 80
Moonage Daydream: 80
Armageddon Time: 74
RMN: 72
Crimes of the Future: 71
Triangle of Sadness: 66
Brother and Sister: 58
Three Thousand Years of Longing: 57
Final Cut: 51
Tchaikovskys Wife: 49

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204962444

+10 Mulligan, Pike, Rampling
-10 Colman, Blanchett, Blanchett

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (935)

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (900)

Olivia Colman, The Favourite (895)

Cate Blanchett, Carol (200)

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (130)

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (50)

Eliminated:
60. Nicole Kidman, Being The Ricardos
59. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
58. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
57. Charlize Theron, Bombshell
56. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
55. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
54. Amy Adams, American Hustle
53. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
52. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
51. Emma Stone, La La Land
50. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
49. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
48. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of The Southern Wild
47. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
46. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
45. Brie Larson, Room
44. Renée Zellweger, Judy
43. Meryl Streep, August Osage County
42. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
41. Felicity Jones, The Theory Of Everything
40. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
39. Annette Bening, The Kids Are Alright
38. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
37. Natalie Portman, Jackie
36. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
35. Meryl Streep, The Post
34. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
33. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
32. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
31. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
30. Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
29. Viola Davis, The Help
28. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
27. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
26. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
25. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
24. Glenn Close, The Wife
23. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
22. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
21. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
20. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
19. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
18. Ruth Negga, Loving
17. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
16. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
15. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
14. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
13. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
12. Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
11. Judi Dench, Philomena
10. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
09. Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
08. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
07. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204962441

+10 Dench, Mulligan
-10 Zellweger, Streep, Staunton

Judi Dench, Notes On A Scandal (1485)

Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake (450)

Carey Mulligan, An Education (440)

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada (400)

Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary (90)

Eliminated:
50) Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line
49) Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
48) Kate Winslet, The Reader
47) Samantha Morton, In America
46) Nicole Kidman, The Hours
45) Juliette Binoche, Chocolat
44) Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
43) Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
42) Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
41) Annette Bening, Being Julia
40) Elliot Page, Juno
39) Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
38) Charlize Theron, North Country
37) Joan Allen, The Contender
36) Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
35) Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
34) Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball
33) Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents
32) Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
31) Angelina Jolie, Changeling
30) Helen Mirren, The Queen
29) Helen Mirren, The Last Station
28) Charlize Theron, Monster
27) Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
26) Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
25) Diane Lane, Unfaithful
24) Melissa Leo, Frozen River
23) Judi Dench, Iris
22) Meryl Streep, Doubt
21) Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
20) Kate Winslet, Little Children
19) Laura Linney, The Savages
18) Salma Hayek, Frida
17) Julie Christie, Away From Her
16) Sissy Spacek, In The Bedroom
15) Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
14) Laura Linney, You Can Count On Me
13) Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give
12) Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
11) Renée Zellweger, Chicago
10) Ellen Burstyn, Requiem For A Dream
09) Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
08) Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
07) Penélope Cruz, Volver
06) Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge!

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204961991

Setia_Yasmine_Khalil wrote:

Tang Wei also might win best actress she is having great notices

The film can’t win both Best Director and Best Actress. No film can receive more than one award. (However, the award for the Best Screenplay and the Jury Prize can be combined with a Best Performance award, on special dispensation of the Festival’s President.)  Nothing is a certainty but I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t receive one of the two, especially since several other touted films haven’t received the reviews that were hoped for or expected.

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204960520

wolfali wrote:

Emily Blunt pulling a Regina King and winning an Emmy and then immediately after an Oscar on her first nomination?

Love her, but I’ll be extremely surprised if Emily Blunt wins an Emmy for her forthcoming Amazon western revenge drama mini-series.  I hope her chances for an Oscar are higher than her chances for an Emmy.

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[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 1353 View Predictions]

#1204957071

georgepapakostas wrote:

Does anybody know if Cate Blanchett is in James Gray´s Armageddon Time? I remember James saying that Cate would have a supporting role and she would give an incredible speech as Donald Trump´s sister!

Jessica Chastain instead of Cate Blanchett plays Trump’s sister in James Grey’s Armageddon Time.

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