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Oscars 2021

Predictions

Best Picture

  • Nomadland 4/1
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 11/2
  • Minari 13/2

Best International Film

  • Another Round 31/10
  • Quo Vadis, Aida? 4/1
  • Collective 4/1

Oscars Nominations 2021

Predictions

Best Director

  • Chloe Zhao 16/5
  • David Fincher 9/2
  • Lee Isaac Chung 5/1

Best Actress

  • Carey Mulligan 69/20
  • Viola Davis 4/1
  • Frances McDormand 4/1

Best Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman 16/5
  • Anthony Hopkins 4/1
  • Riz Ahmed 9/2

Best Supporting Actress

  • Yuh-Jung Youn 19/5
  • Olivia Colman 39/10
  • Maria Bakalova 5/1

Best Supporting Actor

  • Daniel Kaluuya 10/3
  • Sacha Baron Cohen 4/1
  • Leslie Odom, Jr. 4/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Nomadland 10/3
  • One Night in Miami 4/1
  • The Father 9/2

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 69/20
  • Promising Young Woman 39/10
  • Minari 9/2
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RobertPius

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    RobertPius
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    April 21, 2021 at 9:31 pm #1204214399

    They were basically banished from network TV for most of the 80s and 90s, too many times when the award was thought to have been bought especially when a nobody named Pia Zadora had her husband wined and dined the members at his Las Vegas Hotel and then she was named new star of the year for some soft core porn type film beating out Kathleen Turner and Elizabeth McGovern.

    There was a really good documentary a few years ago about all their scandals. I’ve never been able to find it online. NBC must have had it scrubbed.

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    RobertPius
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    April 21, 2021 at 9:06 pm #1204214384

    The most memorable would have to be the most controversial ones. Marlon Brando’s refusing his Godfather award via surrogate, Jane Fonda quietly toying with the audience with dramatic pauses as they waited to see if she’d go into a speech against the Vietnam war (Klute win and she didn’t she said what her father told her to say: that there’s a lot to be said but this isn’t the place.

    and

    especially Vanessa Redgrave being booed

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAcOsK9gRLk

    and even scolded later in the show by Paddy Chayefsky

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JupkXrn1ahU

    Watching the Oscars live in the early seventies must have been riveting TV.

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    RobertPius
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    April 20, 2021 at 10:14 pm #1204212287
    Melvinezq wrote:

    After knowing the true meaning behind it, I feel like it’s not hilarious at all, but still iconic. It’s more like her way to show her gratitude of being received and not underestimated although she had been a joke before for portraying a flying nun. Both her wins were deserved though..svg” class=”emoji”

    Plus it is always misquoted she never said the “you really like me part” just you like me (twice.)

    Her first Oscar and Emmy experiences were made a bit difficult because of Burt Reynolds. She describes in her bio a very depressing scenario of how he convinced/demanded she join him in Santa Barbara or some place like that not too far away from L.A. while he was filming. She inexplicably obeyed and sat alone in a hotel room watching her Emmy win for Sybil which should have been a career altering night for her.

    The Oscars were the same thing the first time. She and Reynolds two co-stars from Starting Over (Jill Clayburgh, Candice Bergen) were nominated and he wasn’t. He wouldn’t go to the ceremony with her. I think the second Oscar was the first time she won something and actually was happy but it turned into such a joke that she never could live down. I think Johnny Carson was responsible for making it a running joke. He was another man she dated briefly and then gave her a hard time.

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    RobertPius
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    April 20, 2021 at 10:03 pm #1204212281

    Meryl Streep, Sophie’s Choice very funny. She drops her speech then notices it on the floor. Goes back to pick it up (all complicated by her being very pregnant)and Sylvester Stallone offers to take it from her. (He must have thought she was just really neat and didn’t like seeing garbage on the stage.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSHOcJzXVwg

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    RobertPius
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    April 11, 2021 at 11:44 pm #1204195115
    roger88 wrote:

    Not again with the botched precedents to justifying the delusion of Close winning.

    *Regina King – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), won GG+SAG, her film was nominated in guilds like the GG and her film was nominated in Best Adapted Screenplay
    *Allison Janney – After Metcalf she was the one with most critics awards, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, her film was PGA nominee (Probably 10th)
    *Viola Davis – Won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, Best Picture nominee.
    *Patricia Arquette – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), Top 2 Best Picture, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Laura Dern – Critics favorite, Best Picture nominee, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Anne Hathaway – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Octavia Spencer – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Melissa Leo – Won NYFCC, Best Picture nominee (Likely Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC.

    For Close you have:

    -An actress who lost GG+CC+SAG. And before going for the excuse “They awarded her before”, Zellweger won two SAG in consecutive years, and 3 GG in 4 years. Ditto Streep winning NYFCC and GG between 2006 and 2011. If an actress has an unquestionable narrative to be awarded, they fall and gave the awards, or Amy Adams winning two consecutive GGs.
    -A film which was panned and has only a makeup nom. No Best Picture, Director and/or screenplay nom either
    -No critics awards (Youn is the critics darling this yer, next Bakalova).
    -The narrative about her losses now has become “pity votes” lol.

    Every time someone came saying Glenn Close can win, the only justification is because “i feel it” but then she failed to win over again.

    Also, if we use the thought of “No Asian actor has won since 1958” or “No Eastern European has won since 1963”, well, before Vikander no Nordic actress had won since 1974 and still she won.

    roger88 wrote:

    Not again with the botched precedents to justifying the delusion of Close winning.

    *Regina King – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), won GG+SAG, her film was nominated in guilds like the GG and her film was nominated in Best Adapted Screenplay
    *Allison Janney – After Metcalf she was the one with most critics awards, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, her film was PGA nominee (Probably 10th)
    *Viola Davis – Won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, Best Picture nominee.
    *Patricia Arquette – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), Top 2 Best Picture, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Laura Dern – Critics favorite, Best Picture nominee, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Anne Hathaway – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Octavia Spencer – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Melissa Leo – Won NYFCC, Best Picture nominee (Likely Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC.

    For Close you have:

    -An actress who lost GG+CC+SAG. And before going for the excuse “They awarded her before”, Zellweger won two SAG in consecutive years, and 3 GG in 4 years. Ditto Streep winning NYFCC and GG between 2006 and 2011. If an actress has an unquestionable narrative to be awarded, they fall and gave the awards, or Amy Adams winning two consecutive GGs.
    -A film which was panned and has only a makeup nom. No Best Picture, Director and/or screenplay nom either
    -No critics awards (Youn is the critics darling this yer, next Bakalova).
    -The narrative about her losses now has become “pity votes” lol.

    Every time someone came saying Glenn Close can win, the only justification is because “i feel it” but then she failed to win over again.

    Also, if we use the thought of “No Asian actor has won since 1958” or “No Eastern European has won since 1963”, well, before Vikander no Nordic actress had won since 1974 and still she won.

    Actually Regina King wasn’t even nominated at SAG. That was an odd year.

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    RobertPius
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    April 9, 2021 at 1:20 pm #1204188801
    crabbie wrote:

    You are delusional thinking voters did not vote for Whoopi Goldberg out of racism. A vanity critic told this to Whoopi in her FACE:

    “Even though she can wear a blond wig, she can’t play a blond. <span style=”text-decoration: underline;”>Even though she can act like a beautiful woman may act and walk like a beautiful woman may walk, she can’t really play a beautiful woman.”</span>

    I’ve linked a video with the exact time stamp of the critic saying that to her face:

    https://youtu.be/nv2qgL3fGZo?t=890

    It also discusses The Color Purple‘s award season run and the racist causes for the film going 0/11 on Oscar night. Voters did not liking see Black women in leading roles. Oprah also mentioned in an interview how voters told her the film will not win any award and it should be honored to be there. But I would not expect you to understand the racist nuances that is involved in the Academy since you’ve said Viola Davis farts and she wins a SAG in your recent comment. Way to go.

    I always heard that The Color Purple lost because the Academy thought they were doing the right thing by not awarding it anything. The NAACP had denounced the film (in the video you linked Whoopi alludes to how she never thought her own would come for her.) She won the Globe but in the time in between the Oscar and Globe the uproar about the film’s depiction of black men and a white man making parts of an acclaimed novel a bit cartoonish became so loud that the Academy thought they were doing the right thing by skipping it.

    With Whoopi they had an easy out since Page had lost so many times. Had Page not been there I think Goldberg would have won since Streep was the only other strong contender and she had just won twice.

    I think The Color Purple only became beloved in later years as it ran on cable and Oprah promoted it so much.

    Edit: I just found this video where Whoopi explains a lot:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIh4uaLyJMI

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    RobertPius
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    April 6, 2021 at 9:25 pm #1204183042
    Ghost wrote:

    It took Lupita awhile to get some good roles, but eventually, it happened for her. It’ll be harder for someone like Youn since she’s Asian and 73 years old! But she’s a Korean acting legend. The expectations for her shouldn’t be the same. I’m glad she’s on her way to Oscar glory. She deserves it!

    Is she really a legend in Korea? It’s odd. Her Wikipedia page was only created in March and her IMDb bio looks very recent too. If she is so famous there I’d have thought somebody would have put her on Wikipedia sooner. (or maybe they just don’t use it as much there.)

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    RobertPius
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    April 5, 2021 at 1:22 pm #1204180287
    Naiad_Lyne wrote:

    What controversy?

    The original ending they shot was different (it’s on youtube if you want to see it.) Test audiences didn’t like the first ending enough so they decided to reshoot a more violent conclusion. Close didn’t think it was consistent with the character and tried get them to use the original ending. It was all behind the scenes and not really known to the general public or industry until years later when DVD’s and commentary tracks started. I don’t think her protesting there cost her any popularity.

    I’ve never heard stories of her being disliked until she lost for The Wife. People were just trying to come up with a reason why a heavy front runner lost so they assumed it was unpopularity. That was given as the reason why some other last minute shocking loses happened. The actor was “difficult” (Lauren Bacall, Eddie Murphy for example got that reason.)

    I agree she’d have won if it was just the acting branch voting. The tech branches are heavily male and she was in a movie that sounded like a chick flick to them. Look at the title. They never watched it.

    I think Fatal Attraction is her most iconic role. Younger people probably know her more from 101 Dalmatians but Fatal Attraction caused a national craze when it came out.

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    RobertPius
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    March 30, 2021 at 10:49 pm #1204167070

    It’s odd how they were never able to get an overdue narrative going for her with Vice. I guess Glenn Close got all the talk about how many nominations she had lost and Amy got overlooked.

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    RobertPius
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    March 30, 2021 at 10:21 pm #1204167035

    One thing I’ve heard that could affect voting is that a lot of SAG members had suspended their accounts last year especially foreign members.

    People didn’t want to pay dues and commissions when they weren’t able to work or in some cases even enter the country.

    I don’t know when the cutoff date was (it is usually Dec. 1st or so) but if you were on inactive status at that time you didn’t get a ballot or screeners.

    I wonder if this will affect any races.

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    RobertPius
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    March 29, 2021 at 10:02 pm #1204165281

    American Hustle she seemed a bit off kilter and had trouble with the dual nature of the role.

    I think the rest she deserved. I would have given it to her for Vice. Regina King has been great on TV lately but that Oscar seemed to be for such a standard performance. Stone and Weisz had already won and Adams was overdue and did have some strong moments in Vice.

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    RobertPius
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    March 28, 2021 at 10:15 pm #1204163153

    If Meryl had won for The French Lieutenant’s Woman like she was predicted to do you think she’d have still won for The Iron Lady or would she and Hepburn and the others all be tied at three wins?

    I think she would have won back to back awards in 81 and 82 since Sophie’s Choice was so incredibly acclaimed.

    I wonder if they’d have given her a fourth one though for The Iron Lady when there was another strong contender that year.

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    RobertPius
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    March 25, 2021 at 11:20 pm #1204158978
    Atypical wrote:

    It’s best supporting actress, not best picture. The work that Close did in “Hillbilly Elegy” is all that’s under consideration.

    Agreed.

    My take on it:

    https://www.nextbestpicture.com/latest/do-you-have-to-be-in-a-great-film-to-give-a-great-performance

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    RobertPius
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    March 25, 2021 at 9:45 pm #1204158670

    I recommend Smithereens by Susan Seidleman. It shows up on TCM Underground every few months (late Friday nights.)

    Amazing film about the 80’s punk scene in downtown NYC.

    (She also directed Desperately Seeking Susan which is sort of a more light hearted version of Smithereens. Then her career film apart with She-Devil. She never really recovered from that Streep bomb.)

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    RobertPius
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    March 19, 2021 at 10:33 pm #1204146335

    I actually really like this year’s nominees and think it is one of the stronger years of the decade.

    It’s sort of too bad Lange got the double nomination and had to win for a performance that everyone felt was a consolation prize. When she won her second Oscar she said it felt good because her first win was always a bit strange like it needed in a note in the record books that although she won for Tootsie she really won for Frances.

    I think Close could have won (tremendous buzz and did the best with precursors besides Lange) and it was her film debut!

    If Close had won Lange would have won in 1984 for Country. Close wouldn’t have had the long overlooked problem and Sally Field would have been saved from giving the “you like me speech” which I think hurt her career and reputation a bit and lost her nominations she was thought to be in line for with Steel Magnolias and Forrest Gump.

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