Forum Replies Created
July 12, 2018 at 7:05 pm #1202585078
Definitely the illogical and inexcusable “Vote for as many people as you can” rule that no other award body uses. It just caused; more “Why Not?” random coattail nominations like Leslie Jones; bringing back old nominees from old shows for no reason like Patinkin; nominating 3 minute cameos from unknown actors just because they lobbied and were in a popular show.
A small branch like costume designers can now technically organize to vote for all entries on their ballot to make sure all of their colleagues get recognition and Academy can do nothing about it. It doesn’t make any sense.July 12, 2018 at 6:18 pm #1202584996
The rulebook says the %2 rule only applies to Drama/Comedy series and their Lead/Supporting categories. Apparently that’s why, for a long time, Miniseries and Guest categories were the only ones we hadn’t seen more than 6 nominees in. So was there an actual tie in Limited Supporting Actor? What a shame.July 12, 2018 at 6:17 pm #1202584994
I thought Westworld would be the big under-performing sophomore season in the Drama Series Emmy race and wrongly predicted it would be snubbed for Killing Eve. Instead, This Is Us greatly under-performed failing to get in for Mandy Moore, Justin Hartley, and even last year’s nominee Chrissy Metz, while Westworld got BOTH Jeffrey Wright and Ed Harris and Evan Rachel Wood on top of the obvious Thandie Newton and Jimmi Simpson nods. I’m so predicting Westworld for SAG Ensemble this year and YES, with 20 freaking nominations for its 2nd Season I feel that in order to be the most informed Emmy predictor I can be I need to finish the season. 9 more hours to go… I at least hope the show is entertaining while being confusing.
Westworld can win SAG Ensemble but don’t correlate the Emmys with them. Both Stranger Things and This Is Us just collapsed with the acting branch after they won Ensemble for no good reason. I guess Downton Abbey can also be included in that group.
If Hulu sends them all their screeners, smart money should be on THT this time.July 12, 2018 at 6:47 am #1202583674
Okay so I don’t know whether this is actually a thing but I was glancing over last year noms looking for any kind of pattern that I could use for my predictions this year and I realised there’s a pretty strong correlation between the people who were surprising nominees and their positioning on the ballots. With 50% ballots A-Z and 50% Z-A it seems that contenders near the top of either of these were more likely to be unexpected nominees. Using those that GoldDerby was not predicting in the top 10, I’ve asterisked the ones who fit the bill: Pamela Adlon* Zach Galifianakis Kathryn Hahn Vanessa Bayer* (was not even in the predictions center!) Wanda Sykes* Riz Ahmed* Samira Wiley* Mandy Patinkin Michael Kenneth Williams* Bill Camp* So 70% of the truly surprising nominees last year had ballot advantage. Should we be looking for the same this year or was this an anomaly?
That’s a good analysis. This theory reaches its maximum potential in Drama/Comedy supporting categories which have 300-400 names on the ballot that are impossible to skip through without getting bored. I don’t think it’d have that much effect on lead and Miniseries categories in general.
Be scared of Aduba, Williams and Walter, Bryant and Winkler.July 12, 2018 at 6:27 am #1202583660
I think the equivelant of Winona Ryder is Mandy Moore, if any. Both play baity grieving mothers in mega-popular SAG-winning ensembles yet their past prevents them from getting the maximum level of support among their show’s fans in the Academy. We’ll see if it’ll end the same way.March 20, 2018 at 5:43 pm #1202516542
It’s only fitting that the year after Mark Cendrowski has been elected as the new governor of directing branch an obligatory multi camera slot is put into motion.
But after last years ”everyone can nominate as many people as they like” rule that is implemented which no other organization uses and could only open the door for more name checks they were supposedly trying to avoid, nothing coming from TV Academy can turly surprise me.March 15, 2018 at 2:36 am #1202513494
Alfie Allen and Michelle FairleyMarch 14, 2018 at 12:25 am #1202512883
Well, fwiw, according to the longlists they used to publish, Dallas Howard made the BAFTA Top 6 that was determined by the acting branch. So I disagree that she was just a “forums” thing, she also had to be close at the Oscars.March 1, 2018 at 2:59 pm #1202503637
Even Jenji Kohan admitted that it was a weaker season but the change of concept in the prison dynamics was needed for viewers like me who started to feel like the show was starting to lose its direction under its scope. The prison riot is the craziest and juiciest story that can happen in this show’s universe so I didn’t mind the over-extended time devoted to that. Still thinking this concept should have been used for either penultimate or the final season to make what would come after it more realistic, although I understand the need of capitalizing on the country’s political climate atm.
Mulgrew was my MVP and the most interesting she’s ever been since s2. Brooks was good but I feel the cheerful and reckless side of the character was more suited for the actress in general until they passed that part on C.Moore to give her the matriarchal role among blacks. Why doesn’t Michelle Hurst come back again?
The last scene stuck in my mind for 2 days. The next season should be interesting with the possible interrogations and trials of inmates by seeing who’ll turn on who.March 1, 2018 at 2:33 pm #1202503620
Lead Actress is too stacked for Clarke to get in. Even though Harington has the least support among the nominated cast members, there’s no solid option I can find to put it in the 6th spot, so he might be in by default. Franco once again misses another easy nom this year because of the allegations. Can Harbour go lead?
I think GoT will easily be down to 1 Supp actress at max this time but either that or Westworld will likely get an additional Supp actor nom if Kelly isn’t eligible to fill the empty slots.
Either Ozark or The Americans for the final Drama slot.March 1, 2018 at 2:11 pm #1202503606
If Rhys was given more to do, he would be a threat to win, so this is disappointing. Russell should be safe, but I have the idea of Maslany getting snubbed instead. Similar like Rami Malek. First time nomination and win and then snubbed. There’s also the fact that the show ended last summer.
I also don’t have her getting in due to the assumption that her win being more based on narrative than people’s admiration for the show and that voters probably feel like they’ve fulfilled their duty now(unfortunately). It was her second nomination, not the first, though.February 18, 2018 at 9:50 pm #1202496658
Three Billboards mostly doing good in awards that are voted on by foreigners will give me a pause from predicting it. How I wish it had been eligible at WGA. There really is no reason why it couldn’t win at PGA though. TSoW wasn’t as big of a moneymaker as LLL and Gravity and wasn’t actually about money like The Big Short, so what gives.February 18, 2018 at 9:47 pm #1202496657
Baby Driver should be the easy go-to choice now but I guess I’ll continue to be swayed by the idea of I, Tonya, Dragon Tattoo’ing its way to a win here since how the fast-paced nature of Baby Driver also applies to that film and that they haven’t had the opportunity to compete against each other at BAFTA.
They both barely missed a BP nom.Tattoo had more tech noms and a DGA nom but I, Tonya is more palpable and has an acting sweeper that will make sure everyone watch the film. Dunno. Want somebody to discourage me.
February 14, 2018 at 10:44 am #1202493835
- This reply was modified 5 months ago by Roney Moore.
Last years WGA Episodic Comedy winner wasn’t nominated at the Emmys. The category is not a reflection of general popularity of a show.February 3, 2018 at 11:14 pm #1202486818
All the other awards can be won by buzz and hype. At SAG, it’s craftspeople voting for the craft. As far as the actual craft of acting goes, if you sweep all these other awards, and your fellow actors don’t vote for you, then it means they didn’t buy into the hype. Affleck losing SAG to Washington was a huge deal. As far as actors were concerned, Washington gave the best performance of the year. If only the Actors Branch of AMPAS were allowed to vote for the winner, I suspect Denzel would easily have won the oscar. In all honesty, critics may have actually done Denzel a huge favor by undeservedly promoting Affleck’s performance over his. Actors saw through it, and as a result now Denzel basically has enough power within the Actors branch to probably break Jack Nicholson’s nomination record with the Academy.
Since you’re being so literal with your examples, you really need to look it up what makes up the membership of AFTRA which is almost the half of SAG voting body now. (clue: weathersman, dancers, recording artists and more.)
And even taking AFTRA out of equation, a guild as enormous as SAG which is mostly filled with inexperienced actors that have only been extras in their lives can’t really be giving out ”the one acting award that can’t be questioned”. I’m willing the bet the ratio of the qualified actors that are allowed to vote at Oscars(1,2k actors among 6k voters in general) are greater than the ones that make up the SAG-AFTRA membership(among 160k people)