[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204884024

ejaru1810 wrote:

One of the stats that remains is no Lead Actress has won an Oscar without winning SAG and/or BAFTA since both became precursors.

I wonder how close Chastain was to winning the Globe. She may have been the favorite from the start, just nobody knew it.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204884001

I’m sad I got Cruz wrong but at least I knew not to jump on the Olivia Colman train. Those predictions were deluded, sorry.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204883949

Coda was the feel good film people loved. The Power of the Dog realistically only could have won four Oscars, five perhaps if Cumberbatch had caught on. But it wasn’t going to win in the tech categories or in Best Supporting Actress. Netflix has long been a threat to the film industry so expect it to get shafted more often than not.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204883897

I thought Cruz could do it but Chastain clearly had a lot of admiration/goodwill in the industry plus respect for her commitment to the project. Sucks for Cruz though. Hope she’ll win in lead someday.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204882016

I predicted Licorice Pizza. I guess Belfast had an overdue Branagh plus wealth spreading on it’s side. Too bad.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204859054

Donda wrote:

Okay but this wasn’t my point. Am I supposed to believe Cruz will win for a spanish performance with no major award AND snubs all over the place meanwhile Jessica Chastain is giving a baitier performance, has won SAG and her film prolly taking Makeup along the ride? Cruz predictions are as baseless as it gets and I liked her better than Chastain.

Lots of actors have won their film’s only Oscars. Cruz can definitely do the same. Normally, I would agree with you on the snubs but this year is very much a free for all since things are so crazy. Cruz is picking up steam at the right moment.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204858965

Manav wrote:

Off topic but has anyone lost the Oscar after winning both SAG and BAFTA?

Russell Crowe although Denzel was most likely not eligible to compete with him at BAFTA.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204858957

Film_guy wrote:

Queen Olivia will win in a surprise with few predicting her just like she won for The favourite and Crown.

Look, I love Olivia Colman but I feel like there is just no incentive to reward her right now and I actually feel like it wouldn’t necessarily help her career for her to become someone who wins two Oscars so soon because the industry likes to build people up and then knock them down a peg in one way or the other. It took Sally Field twenty eight years to be nominated again at the Oscars and Swank hasn’t been nominated since her second win. Jodie Foster got a fourth nomination three years after her second win but she has gotten none since, same with Jason Robards getting his third nomination three years after his second win and not getting any afterwards and Tom Hanks getting a couple nods after his second win but then taking twenty years to get his next nomination. It took DeNiro ten years to get nominated again after his second win for Raging Bull in 1980. Meryl Streep is obviously an exception and maybe even Shelley Winters too but it feels like actors who win Oscars very close together get punished by the Academy.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204858934

Donda wrote:

Lol, Penelope Cruz is not beating Jessica Chastain and you can use Marcia Gay Harden as may times as you want. Voters’ perception of lead and supporting are clearly distinctive. Chastain has SAG meanwhile Cruz in addition to not having Bafta (to balance) wasn’t even longlisted by their acting Chapter. Tammy is likely taking Makeup, this undoubtely gives the edge to Chastain.

I feel like a win in Makeup doesn’t guarantee anything. We have only seen Streep, Cotillard, and Jessica Tandy’s films win both awards. Judy didn’t win the award in 2019 nor did Theron beat Zellweger after Bombshell won Best Makeup and Viola Davis, Salma Hayek, and Cate Blanchett all failed to win Best Actress after their films won the prize too.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204858927

Ashton_Reeves wrote:

This is why its hard to predict Cruz her situation only ever happened once in Oscar history. Now I’m supposed to believe its happening again with a NON English performance. Do i see the passion for a upset ?yes. But as for now she’s giving me Isabelle Huppert in Elle vibes respected actress giving a non English performance with a few critic wins.

I feel like Cruz is much better known to Academy voters than Isabelle Huppert though and Almodovar and Parallel Mothers are far more popular than Paul Verhoeven and Elle.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204858904

Stefania wrote:

Joe’s friend contradicted themselves so many times in their ballot. I mean, they didn’t like Jane Campion’s comment and calls her a “white feminist” (fair enough), but then they dismiss “West Side Story” for having too much Spanish that they didn’t understand and doesn’t vote for Dunst because she disappears from the movie but votes for Plemons (who also arguably disappears from the movie) for his past roles. I guess they like feminism and intersectionality when they’re in their favor. And not to vote for Johnny Greenwood or Benedict Cumberbatch because of a comment that someone else made? That’s so unfair.

Also, I’m surprised that people don’t get that “The Power of the Dog” is made up of four parts seen from four different points of view: George first meeting a nice woman at the inn, then Rose coming to the new house, Phil in the middle section and Peter at the end. That’s why characters “disappear” from parts of the movie!

Welcome to the confusing, contradictory, prone to amnesia psyche of Americans who vote for things.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204858894

Go Yeoh! wrote:

How is she overdue? She won an Oscar in 2008. Yes, long ago for the academy to not take that in consensus (maybe unlike Colman) but she isn’t overdue.

She is a very talented actress who deserves recognition. There is a big difference between Supporting Actress and Best Actress in a big way in the industry. Cruz has obviously been luckier than most winners in the former category but it’s time to see her get the big award.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204825148

borisy wrote:

she won comedy actress

That’s….. not an important precursor in any way.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204824560

Go Yeoh! wrote:

Well Renee won’t have won for Judy in that case.

Tammy and both are American Icons. On flip side, I think it plays in favour for them because people won’t be going in having pre-requisite knowledge of these celebrities (which was the reason why many didn’t like Kidman’s performance) while on other hand everyone’s son and grandfather knows about Diana. Kristen’s performance isn’t exactly modelled around Diana but it people go in having certain expectations about her performance.

I bet Garland has way more name recognition internationally than Tammy Faye Baker though.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 183 View Predictions]

#1204824546

CarlosEdu wrote:

Jessica was really robbed for Zero Dark Thirty. Emmanuelle Riva and JLaw were great but Chastain was in other level, one of the greatest perfomances in last decade, who saw her perfomance knows how incredible she is in the movie

I thought Riva and Lawrence were more deserving but Chastain was quite good in Zero Dark Thirty.