Joe Burns
I'm a funny, intelligent, and talkative person who loves movies, singing, reading, cooking, plays, and blogging!!! Also, Meryl Streep 🙂
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February 20, 2019 at 12:56 pm #1202782900
First of all, the most accurate precursor for Best Actress is the SAG not the BAFTA. Why would “the industry” suddenly go in a different direction this late in the race, after Glenn already won 3 precursors? The Critics Choice should’ve been the easiest win for Colman, and yet she lost. She wasn’t even one of the two women who tied. She also lost the SAG. And this year’s situation cannot be compared to any previous races because there is no precedent for it. This is NOT like the Cotillard/Christie race because Christie already had an Oscar.
I definitely think that Christie’s previous Oscar win was not a substantial factor in her losing. She lost for other reasons that would have sunk her if she hadn’t had an Oscar already. I wouldn’t say this race is a perfect match for that race but it’s definitely similar. Also Critics Choice has been losing credibility for the last ten years especially since it has moved it’s timeline closer to the Oscars so it can be more of a part of the action.Close and Gaga tying was the result of the hype surrounding both of them at the time and the fact that Critics Choice enjoys ties in this category. Colman, despite her Globe win, didn’t campaign enough for Critics Choice to want to sheep her to a win.
SAG is not insurmountable either- Lange, Swank, Kidman, Cotillard, and Streep have all triumphed without winning it.I’m still going with Close but I’m getting tempted more and more to switch to Colman.
ReplyFebruary 20, 2019 at 10:12 am #1202782634I know. Maybe Julianne was more popular than Glenn when she won her Oscar? She was still working a lot; she had visibility. I don’t think Glenn is in the same position. She’s much older and she’s out of the public and midia eyes before the Globes.
Yeah she had bigger exposure with Game Change and The Kids Are All Right among other projects that won her a lot of admiration in the industry. Close is great but she isn’t as beloved as Moore is.
ReplyFebruary 19, 2019 at 10:15 pm #1202782182Any updates on the state of the race? I feel like Close has never been a juggernaut due to her lack of steam in the earlier part of the season. She really should have steamrolled throughout the awards season if she really was unstoppable. The hype around Gaga and Colman as competition made this race too competitive for Close to be this year’s Julianne Moore who really had no real competition due to there not being an alternative to her- Cotillard had won too recently and the nomination was her reward, the Academy disliked Gone Girl with left Pike with no chances of winning, Felicity Jones was a filler nominee, and Reese Witherspoon nor Wild had any buzz. This year Close is up against four nominees whose films ALL have more support then her’s which does hurt her a little bit. I still think that the strength of her campaign in addition to her doing so well with the precursors will push her ahead but Colman could beat her if Oscar voters are not passionate enough about Close.
ReplyFebruary 19, 2019 at 6:46 am #1202781393If the producers had any courage they would have nominated Stone and Colman in leading with Weisz being in supporting although that minimizes Weisz”s contributions a little too much although I think that she is indeed supporting in The Favorite.
ReplyFebruary 19, 2019 at 6:41 am #1202781387Black Klansman has no chance of winning. The Favorite and Green book are the films that could beat Roma with Black Panther having an outside chance. I think Roma will pull it off though.
ReplyFebruary 19, 2019 at 6:23 am #1202781365I don”t think that Green Book can triumph in Original Screenplay- it couldn”t even win the WGA and, even more then that,lost to an unnominated script. It shows that the passion is just not there for the film. It could be the “liked film” that pulls off the victory but I sense that the backlash against it and the time period between it”s PGA win and now does not bode well for it.
I think that Black Panther has a shot at winning with how narrow the competition is. It already sounds like it’s getting a lot of top ballot votes which will no doubt help it. With no directing/writing/no acting nods though it’s an uphill battle and Oscar voters are still not willing to embrace an action film as Best Picture yet.
ReplyFebruary 18, 2019 at 7:57 pm #1202781008I honestly was disappointed with that video- I’m tired of OscarsSoWhite. I think its great that the Academy is being more and more diverse but Halle Berry’s Oscar win was an extremely memorable and monumental deal. No victory in a struggle for equality and fair treatment is absolute- of course people still have work to do. But the Academy took a step to acknowledge what it viewed as a great performance and it was not only because she was black. She was showing range people didn’t expect of her on the big screen and she was proving all those naysayers wrong by showing her integrity as an artist was something worth fighting for. White people need to stop getting on their high horse and minimalizing every step in the right direction simply because it didn’t solve all of the problems of race that we have in this country in one fell swoop .If it wasn’t for victories like Halle Berry’s a lot that is happening today wouldn’t have happened. She really did open the door for progress no matter how slow. There is still a lot of work to do but all of the cynical hand wringing by white people is just to assuage white guilt.
ReplyFebruary 18, 2019 at 4:31 pm #1202780885I agree with you in some cases. But for me she’s supporting. Her arch in my opinion is supporting. Yes she plays an important part in the movie. But the movie is essentially about Michael. His struggles with his family, the love that he has for Hanna that after so many years still lives on, the relationship with his daughter, his profession, love-affairs. Yes she appears in both time lines, but there’s a lot of moments that she doesn’t appear. She has a strong arch in the beginning and towards end of the movie. But during the middle of the movie she disappears for a while. For example, in my opinion, Nicole is supporting in The Hours , while both Julianne and Meryl are leads. Both Moore and Streep are connected with each other. Not to mention that Julianne Moore also appears in Meryl’s timeline. While Nicole as an arch of her own (well the three have), but she has no connection with the others, except for the fact that both of them read her book. Nothing more. But Julianne had Far from Heaven that year, so they placed her supporting so that she couldn’t compete with herself. In the same year, both ladies from Chicago, IMO, were Lead. The movie starts with Catherine and ends with both overcoming their feud and performing together, becoming huge stars like they always wanted. Both characters were needed so they could develop each other. Their feud plays a huge part on the movie. Emily Blunt, in my opinion, is someone who didn’t commit category fraud. First of all, AQP is an ensemble movie. There’s no LEAD. The movie is about the family in general. Is about their personal struggles and how they survive in that specific environment. Not to mention that she has basically no arch to drive the movie, apart form the bath scene. But that is a scene necessary to drive the movie. She basically is there to help the family and her kids. To be the moral and sentimental support. I would even argue that if there’s a lead in AQP, then that person is Millicent Simmonds. She’s the one that has an actual arch. Dev Patel, is also supporting in Lion. Yes, his character is the Lead. But he only appears an hour later in the movie. The kid is basically the lead. He drives the first hour of the movie but he also appears during Patel’s timeline. In dreams and flashbacks. So essentially, the kid is in both timelines so he’s the LEAD. Dev Patel only appears, when the kid is grown up. The category is SUPPORTING ACTOR. NOT SUPPORTING CHARACTER. Dev Patel, as an actor, is supporting. While in The Reader, i think both Ralph Fiennes and David Kross are LEADS. Unlike Lion, in The Reader the timeline is not continuous, the movie is always going back and forth. Switching from the past Michael to the future Michael all the time. They settle a bit in the beginning and at the end. But i think you get what i’m trying to say. But i have to say that both Rooney Mara AND Alicia Vikander are DEFINITELY LEADS in their movies. Alicia is HUGELY necessary in her movie and her arch is very important and huge. The same goes for Rooney. How in the hell can anyone think that she’s supporting. SHE’S LEAD. There’s NO question possible. And Jacob Tremblay is another one. HE’S LEAD. I think we can all agree that 2016 was THE golden year for the most obvious category frauds.
Nope- Winslet is a lead in The Reader. The movie is about how she affects Michael’s life. Take her out of the film and you don’t have a film. Him coping with his daughter and his family is nowhere near as important to the narrative as his relationship with Hanna.Yeah Kross and Fiennes are the protagonists but just because Winslet’s character doesn’t have as much screen time doesn’t mean that she isn’t a lead.
I personally think Zeta-Jones is supporting in Chicago- the role as well her rivalry with Roxie is slimmed down by a lot compared to the stage version in which Velma is a very obvious lead maybe even more then Roxie is in some ways(doesn’t mean Roxie is supporting either).
ReplyFebruary 17, 2019 at 9:48 pm #1202779977I think Black Klansman will still win but wow Can You Ever Forgive Me? just came out of nowhere! Eighth Grade’s win is a shocker too and gives The Favorite a strong edge to triumph in Best Original Screenplay.
ReplyFebruary 16, 2019 at 7:50 pm #1202778649Hasn’t the late screeners argument for King been debunked?
ReplyFebruary 16, 2019 at 12:17 am #1202778043lol. I love Kate Winslet. She’s one of my faves and I’m rooting for her to win Oscar #2, but I couldn’t help but think of this hypothetical:
Had Kate Winslet not frauded her way to a lead win, Streep would have won her third Oscar for Doubt. Viola Davis would have been the second black woman to win Best Actress for The Help, and no one would have inspired Viola to category fraud, so she would have been the most nominated black woman for Best Actress with Fences, finally allowing White Michelle to win her elusive first oscar for Manchester.
However, none of this happened because Kate Winslet trail blazed the whole category fraud concept to win a Lead oscar in ’09. Karma came back to bite hit her in the @ss years later and she unfortunately lost her elusive second oscar to one of the biggest category fraud perpetrators in recent history, Alicia Vikanlead.
Winslet is NOT supporting in The Reader- that was a clear lead role. From what I’ve read(https://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/question-re-kate-winslet-leading-supporting-2008/) she wanted to be in leading for Revolutionary Road. Don’t blame her for actors preferring her work in The Reader and nominating her in lead while ignoring her performance in Revolutionary Road.
ReplyFebruary 15, 2019 at 12:47 am #1202777030Yeah, WGA isn’t a perfect match with Oscar either. In Original Screenplay, Places In The Heart, Rain Man, Dead Poets Society, Ghost, Goodwill Hunting, Almost Famous, and Manchester By The Sea(although it lost to Adapted Screenplay Oscar winner Moonlight) all lost at WGA and triumphed at the Oscars.I don’t know how many of these weren’t eligible(although speaking of eligible WTF was with the documentary Bowling For Columbine winning the WGA for Best Original Screenplay in 2002??) but Pulp Fiction, The Usual Suspects, Talk To Her, The King’s Speech, Django Unchained, and Birdman have all won the Best Original Screenplay Oscar without being nominated at WGA. As for before that, Battleground,The Lavender Hill Mob, Titanic, Interrupted Melody, The Red Balloon, Designing Women, Pillow Talk, Splendor In The Grass, Divorce Italian Style, How The West Was Won, Father Goose, Darling, A Man And A Woman, Guess Who’s Coming To Dinner?, The Sting, Gandhi, and Chariots Of Fire pulled off Oscar wins without being honored at WGA.
In Adapted Screenplay, Out Of Africa, Howards End, Gods And Monsters, The Cider House Rules, The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King, and Precious were all able to win at the Oscars despite being also rans at WGA. As for un-nominated and possibly ineligible scripts Amadeus, The Last Emperor, The Pianist, and 12 Years A Slave all won at the Oscars. And before that The Bad And The Beautiful,The Country Girl, The Bridge On The River Kwai, Room At The Top,Judgement at Nuremberg, Tom Jones, Doctor Zhivago, A Man For All Seasons,In The Heat Of The Night, The Exorcist, and Julia won the Oscar without WGA awarding them.
February 14, 2019 at 10:48 pm #1202776976I really don’t understand this mentality at all.
GB would have the Globe and the WGA, whereas TF would only have the BAFTA.
GB has the sentimentality going for it: The main screenwriter Nick Vallelonga wrote about his pops.
A WGA win for GB shows that the so-called controversy was pure media noise, and not something industry folks cared about.
Sentimentality isn”t enough to win an Oscar- ask Peter O”Toole, Ruby Dee, Emanuelle Riva, Lauren Bacall, Burt Reynolds. Also the Globe for Best Screenplay is not a precursor that is correct all the time. There are plenty of times when the winner didn”t win either Screenplay award: Steve Jobs, The Purple Rose Of Cairo, Up In The Air, About Schmidt, Scent Of A Woman,The Goodbye Girl, Love Story,Charly,Anne Of The Thousand Days,The Ninth Configuration,The Mission,Born On The Fourth Of July,
Running On Empty,The People Vs. Larry Flynt, The Queen, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Of Ebbing Missouiri. The Favorite has quite a memorable script that is both funny and dramatic. Even if Green Book wins WGA I think The Favorite will prevail.February 14, 2019 at 7:33 pm #1202776854It”s happened before SAG even existed though too lol.
ReplyFebruary 14, 2019 at 7:30 pm #1202776853Well I don’t really recall what happened since I was just a child, but from what I’ve read, Nicole Kidman was the frontrunner from the beginning to the very end.
Julianne Moore was the critic darling but she wasn’t predicted to win…
Zellweger was my personal favorite, I would have voted for her, but Kidman being dumped by Cruise played a big part in the goodwill of rewarding her. I might be wrong, but that’s all I know.
I believe you because you might have lived that moment.
I was alive but I was way too young to follow the races at that time. I”ve done a lot of research on the Oscars though with books like Inside Oscar, The Academy Awards: A Complete Onofficial History, Roger Ebert as well as the numberous TV shows he was on, Tom”s awards book, and the Oscar book series by Robert Osborne that now seems sadly extinct after his death. I also have gotten a lot of my research from Entertaimment”s Weekly old magazine archive which had issues dating all the way back to the 62nd Oscar Season. It”s a real shame that they got rid of it as it was such a wealth of information. BTW Roger Ebert”s Oscar predictions are still largely available in his website”s archives online. It”s definitely worth checking out.
