[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1205349483

KMJ1230 wrote:

All of it stung (she and many, many others felt she was worthy, bagged up two vital pre cursor big awards+ to undue the damage Tina Turner movie massive F UP, 64 yrs old so ain’t gonna be easy again).What compounds it almost 30 years exactly, also won the GG then..loses again to the vapid, nepo white wonder bread woman.

Bigger question is I wonder how much of ‘it’ all was do to who won (not just her losing), why etc..vs someone else (Kerry) who she maybe felt was also truly worthy in her own personal opinion. We all dunno what goes on behind the scenes. Some of it powerful social cliques, people talking sh!t etc…It gets or can be beyond ruthless. JLC IS the game by this point living in that world.

Holly Hunter was extraordinary in The Piano- her win is a worthy one even if you prefer Bassett.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1205264747

I understand it’s not just Frances. But I didn’t see anyone else saying don’t vote for x or x because they are locked. She set it in motion. She alone probably convinced hundreds of voters not to prioritize Till or The Woman King. I get she’s a small factor of this, but she still is one.

I feel like this is a stretch.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1205263668

kamila wrote:

I agree. The above the line categories will be a big puzzle to solve. I just don’t think the Daniels have enough cache to win, especially when Field is right there and is a much safer pick if voters want to reward a “newcomer.” And also, there’s the puzzle of trying to figure out what else The Fabelmans could win. Director for Spielberg could be its only chance above the line.

It’s taken a long time but I think TAR is officially not just an acting showcase for Blanchett anymore. The trifecta and Field’s steadiness have pushed it up in the Picture rankings. It could’ve easily missed those techs, especially Cinematography. And it really does stand out in the Best Picture slate as the only proper arthouse film, which is part of why I think it did so well today.

Field is not a newcomer- he made In the Bedroom and Little Children.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1205237561

I think Williams will get in- we have seen Saoirse Ronan, Andra Day, and Kristin Stewart make it with snubs at SAG over the past three years. So can Williams.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204884024

ejaru1810 wrote:

One of the stats that remains is no Lead Actress has won an Oscar without winning SAG and/or BAFTA since both became precursors.

I wonder how close Chastain was to winning the Globe. She may have been the favorite from the start, just nobody knew it.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204884001

I’m sad I got Cruz wrong but at least I knew not to jump on the Olivia Colman train. Those predictions were deluded, sorry.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204883949

Coda was the feel good film people loved. The Power of the Dog realistically only could have won four Oscars, five perhaps if Cumberbatch had caught on. But it wasn’t going to win in the tech categories or in Best Supporting Actress. Netflix has long been a threat to the film industry so expect it to get shafted more often than not.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204883897

I thought Cruz could do it but Chastain clearly had a lot of admiration/goodwill in the industry plus respect for her commitment to the project. Sucks for Cruz though. Hope she’ll win in lead someday.

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[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204882016

I predicted Licorice Pizza. I guess Belfast had an overdue Branagh plus wealth spreading on it’s side. Too bad.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204859054

sister jude wrote:

Okay but this wasn’t my point. Am I supposed to believe Cruz will win for a spanish performance with no major award AND snubs all over the place meanwhile Jessica Chastain is giving a baitier performance, has won SAG and her film prolly taking Makeup along the ride? Cruz predictions are as baseless as it gets and I liked her better than Chastain.

Lots of actors have won their film’s only Oscars. Cruz can definitely do the same. Normally, I would agree with you on the snubs but this year is very much a free for all since things are so crazy. Cruz is picking up steam at the right moment.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204858965

wrote:

Off topic but has anyone lost the Oscar after winning both SAG and BAFTA?

Russell Crowe although Denzel was most likely not eligible to compete with him at BAFTA.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204858957

wrote:

Queen Olivia will win in a surprise with few predicting her just like she won for The favourite and Crown.

Look, I love Olivia Colman but I feel like there is just no incentive to reward her right now and I actually feel like it wouldn’t necessarily help her career for her to become someone who wins two Oscars so soon because the industry likes to build people up and then knock them down a peg in one way or the other. It took Sally Field twenty eight years to be nominated again at the Oscars and Swank hasn’t been nominated since her second win. Jodie Foster got a fourth nomination three years after her second win but she has gotten none since, same with Jason Robards getting his third nomination three years after his second win and not getting any afterwards and Tom Hanks getting a couple nods after his second win but then taking twenty years to get his next nomination. It took DeNiro ten years to get nominated again after his second win for Raging Bull in 1980. Meryl Streep is obviously an exception and maybe even Shelley Winters too but it feels like actors who win Oscars very close together get punished by the Academy.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204858934

sister jude wrote:

Lol, Penelope Cruz is not beating Jessica Chastain and you can use Marcia Gay Harden as may times as you want. Voters’ perception of lead and supporting are clearly distinctive. Chastain has SAG meanwhile Cruz in addition to not having Bafta (to balance) wasn’t even longlisted by their acting Chapter. Tammy is likely taking Makeup, this undoubtely gives the edge to Chastain.

I feel like a win in Makeup doesn’t guarantee anything. We have only seen Streep, Cotillard, and Jessica Tandy’s films win both awards. Judy didn’t win the award in 2019 nor did Theron beat Zellweger after Bombshell won Best Makeup and Viola Davis, Salma Hayek, and Cate Blanchett all failed to win Best Actress after their films won the prize too.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204858927

Ashton_Reeves wrote:

This is why its hard to predict Cruz her situation only ever happened once in Oscar history. Now I’m supposed to believe its happening again with a NON English performance. Do i see the passion for a upset ?yes. But as for now she’s giving me Isabelle Huppert in Elle vibes respected actress giving a non English performance with a few critic wins.

I feel like Cruz is much better known to Academy voters than Isabelle Huppert though and Almodovar and Parallel Mothers are far more popular than Paul Verhoeven and Elle.

[Joe Burns Joined: Jan 26th, 2014 Topics: 10 Posts: 187 View Predictions]

#1204858904

Stefania wrote:

Joe’s friend contradicted themselves so many times in their ballot. I mean, they didn’t like Jane Campion’s comment and calls her a “white feminist” (fair enough), but then they dismiss “West Side Story” for having too much Spanish that they didn’t understand and doesn’t vote for Dunst because she disappears from the movie but votes for Plemons (who also arguably disappears from the movie) for his past roles. I guess they like feminism and intersectionality when they’re in their favor. And not to vote for Johnny Greenwood or Benedict Cumberbatch because of a comment that someone else made? That’s so unfair.

Also, I’m surprised that people don’t get that “The Power of the Dog” is made up of four parts seen from four different points of view: George first meeting a nice woman at the inn, then Rose coming to the new house, Phil in the middle section and Peter at the end. That’s why characters “disappear” from parts of the movie!

Welcome to the confusing, contradictory, prone to amnesia psyche of Americans who vote for things.