Forum Replies Created
September 26, 2022 at 2:17 pm #1205098974
Rumors are circling on twitter about apple dropping one of their big films in December to shake up the race. Maybe Napoleon or KOTFM. Either one would have big implications in best actor
Variety debunked it already.
Despite a report that Apple was eyeing a possible 2022 release for Ridley Scott’s biopic “Napoleon,” with Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby, two sources within the streamer have confirmed it will not drop during this current awards season.September 25, 2022 at 1:47 pm #1205097965
vinny: I think that Hugh Jackman is out. Those reviews ain´t gonna let him ride in with the big boys. It is a difference between being well like and well respected. Jackman is well liked
The reason I’m having trouble totally discounting Jackman still getting a nomination is that while reviews for The Son were poor, there was a definite consensus that it is a showcase for Jackman and that he’s excellent in it. Because he is liked, and because this year’s crop is pretty thin, I think he could still wind up getting in.
I think it depends on reactions when The Son opens. If audiences are as passionately angry at the film as they were at Telluride then yeah he’s probably safe to write off.September 24, 2022 at 5:47 pm #1205097362
This is basically where I am. I’ve been pretty tempted to remove Dano but can’t really find a solid case for anyone else just yet. Somehow I also think it hurts him that Williams is going lead. Part of me is kicking myself for getting rid of BTH with 1/100 odds, but I agree with you that the buzz has mostly died. Babylon could play here, but I’m not convinced by Pitt and I think Maguire would have to be awfully good to get attention here. He and Dano are more similar than they are different.
This is why I slid Keoghan in. I think he could have landed a nom before Gleeson entered the category, and now may coattail him into double supporting actor nominations since that’s so trendy now. It’s not the most solid case, but I buy that outcome more than Pitt and agree Dano is vulnerable.
I also just realized I completely unintentionally am predicting Banshees to basically copy the Three Billboards nominations and have a similar performance (1 lead, win competitive; 2 supporting, 1 win competitive; screenplay, picture)September 23, 2022 at 6:11 am #1205095644
I see some people are dropping Dano from supporting. Do you think they’re moving him to lead or what?
I don’t have him but only because I’m clinging to BTH and don’t play this game for internet points as much as I do to have my own little way to back my preferences.
A lot of folks think he’s missing for Hirsch in supporting and that’s been the story since reviews came out. I personally think it’s pretty likely he gets the Plemons-esque nod in supporting based on being in likely a powerhouse awards performing film and industry respect.
I don’t think he’s going lead atm…I think that was for Michelle only because Spielberg has never gotten a lead actress win. But it’s possible they want to diversify their contenders and see lead actor is pretty thin this year, so.September 23, 2022 at 6:03 am #1205095639
First Reformed’s writer-director made more accessible movie last year (name escapes me) that was handled by Focus a studio with very consistent awards traction. It fared as well as First Reformed because the writer-director just isn’t AMPAS thing. And neither are Aster and Safdies. It isn’t always the studio campaign. if your movie has no appeal to the voters, no amount of campaigning is gonna save it.
Schrader’s The Card Counter? That definitely was not more accessible than even First Reformed. Awards bodies that lauded films like American Sniper or Zero Dark Thirty were never gonna touch a movie as absolutely condemning as Card Counter and Focus knew that. Movie whips ass tho.
Anyway, not really relevant, just saying. I think A24 can campaign very well when they want to but there is a reality of a scarcity of resources. They’ve flopped on a number of movies that should have had strong awards traction. Just last year C’mon C’mon was completely ignored despite its praise because A24 failed to coalesce around one option and floundered in all their award potentials. This year I do think they know EEAAO is their horse alongside Fraser in actor and are circling resources around it, which has shown. So I think it will fare more like, I dunno, Minari and less like First Reformed or Eighth Grade (justice for both).September 22, 2022 at 4:29 pm #1205095090
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the coward Robert Ford. C’mon.
Gyllenhaal, Foxx and Patel were also very silly.
But the one that has and probably always will jump first to my mind when people talk about fraud is Vikander. When she won I just ignored what it was for and thought “wow it’s so nice to see the wonderful Ex Machina being recognized.” The Danish Girl? Don’t know her.September 22, 2022 at 2:07 pm #1205094945
Let’s go! Vince will force them to give her that Emmy and we will be supporting!September 22, 2022 at 1:36 pm #1205094889
Happy for Brendan, I think he has a real shot to take it. I’m really not sure if it will be Ke Huy Quan or Gleeson, but I’m leaving Ke Huy Quan in my first slot. Oddly, this category seems more stacked than lead actor this year.
I’m also toying with putting Barry Keoghan in supporting despite Gleeson being there. He got wonderful reviews, and if Banshees takes off like I think it will I think they may swing double nominations here.
The news for Micheal Ward is disappointing, but honestly if Olivia Colman doesn’t go anywhere for EOL, and I don’t think she will, I don’t think anyone else in the film is going to, sadly.September 22, 2022 at 1:23 pm #1205094857
I was asleep when the Michelle Williams thing happened yesterday (which pisses me off because I lost the chance at 100/1 odds) Anyone remember about how long it was after the announcement was made that the prediction center was updated?
It was pretty quick, I think like an hour or so?September 21, 2022 at 10:52 pm #1205094097
Starting to think Banshees could win. It’s universally loved, and will be getting lots of 1’s, 2’s, and 3’s on the ballot. Original Screenplay plus a win for Condon, Farrell and/or Gleeson would be enough.
Don’t threaten me with a good time!September 21, 2022 at 5:46 pm #1205093839
Can we still make a case here for BTH without Lawrence? I’m still saying yes given the field right now, but boy do those odds ever increase right now. After todays news, I’m not so sure it’s a walk in the park without Lawrence, but there are still those rare breakout nominations for a film. He does have the raves. I just likely see the uphill battle for him even more questionable after his partner likely dropped.
I really, really want to. He got, honestly, better notices than Lawrence and those single supporting nods do happen, but it’ll be tough unattached to her bigger more known stardom. I’m keeping him in until I have to drop him.September 21, 2022 at 5:42 pm #1205093833
Morbius and My Son Hunter are coming to sweepNot now