[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203104497

Dan Backslide wrote:

You can talk about behind the scenes business all you want, doesn’t take away the fact that Hanks was chosen. And he’s a good choice. The man’s a legend who deserves this accolade. But if you want to get all pissed off, that’s your right. Enjoy being the only person in the world who hates Tom Hanks.

Also, a word of advice. Don’t say “darling”. It just makes you sound like a Thatcher wannabe.

I’m not the only person in the world who hates Tom Hanks but if I were, I wouldn’t be mad at him. Man can he get a little less typecast.

I was talking about the advantage that means to go on stage to receive an Honorary Award the same year you have a role with chances of being nominated in a competitive list. I said the same thing when Meryl won in 2016 and I will say the same thing every time this happens because there’s some evidence in it and I’m going to defend it even if I’m not a journalist with name writing for IndieWire, Deadline, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter or whatever.

Diane Ladd would understand me.

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203104482

Brad Pitt has THE MOMENTUM, THE MOVIE OF THE YEAR and THE RESPECT.

John Lithgow has THE ROLE. Let’s see if he delivers and if it’s enough to beat Pitt.

[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203102868

Dan Backslide wrote:

It’s not Hank’s fault that they chose him for the award. And he deserves it. Tom Hanks is one of the greatest, most beloved, and kindest stars to ever grace Hollywood. He’s earned this

Chose?

Darling, are you Two years old?

Studios, agents… They pay and influence this things, specially The tributes and The honorary awards.

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203102845

Jennifer López can win The Hollywood Film Award, The National Board of Review and The Golden Globe.

Laura Dern can win some crítics, The SAG and The Oscar.

[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203102825

Dana_S_ wrote:

Now that Joker dropped to 77% on RT, what are Phoenix’s chances?

Best Actor winners must have 79%, according to Academy rules, to win.

[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203100649

Only possible answer: No.

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203100647

Dan Backslide wrote:

Tom Hanks is a wonderful pick. Also, receiving the award while he’s currently in contention for another Oscar nod will likely give him a good boost.

Many of you see this as a good boost, many of others (Including myself) see this as a pure strategy of promotion and greed. When you’re contending for a competitive award, you shouldn’t get an honorary award. As simple as that.

We already had to suffer that when Meryl Streep won this same award in 2016 while she was nominated for Florence Foster Jenkins. I can imagine Kevin Huvane and her publicist telling her to go for the Cecil B. DeMille award because she had to give a speech somehow that night to get the nomination and convince voters. Emma Stone was a lock.

The same goes for Hanks. The thing is, Hanks is less beloved than Streep. Let’s see how this plays out but, as far as I’m concerned, he can go to hell for doing this awful strategy. I’m sorry, the awards season is getting more and more annoying every year, specially when category fraud (Not Hanks’ case) and greed (Hanks case) happen.

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203067638

01. Brad Pitt, Once upon a time in Hollywood
02. John Lithgow, Bombshell
03. Al Pacino, The Irishman
04. Joe Pesci, The Irishman
05. Tom Hanks, A beautiful day in the neighborhood

[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1203067152

01. Renée Zellweger, Judy (Comeback, real person, deglam, triple threat, narrative, acclaim)
02. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (Diversity, real person, subject matter)
03. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (Acclaim, due)
04. Awkwafina, The Farewell (Diversity, acclaim)
05. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (Real person, deglam, subject matter)

[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1202064448

Okja, Suspiria, Nuri Bilge Ceylan are not going, 100% confirmed.

LOCKS: Michael Haneke, Sofia Coppola, Claire’s Camèra.

The big doubt is Downsizing.

20 hours to know!

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1202064436

APRIL 12, 2017

BEST PICTURE
The Darkest Hour
Detroit
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
Lean on Pete
mother!
The Phantom Thread
The Post
Wonderstruck

BEST DIRECTOR
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Darren Aronofsky, mother!
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Phantom Thread
Todd Haynes, Wonderstruck

BEST ACTOR
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Meryl Streep, The Post
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Steve Buscemi, Lean on Pete
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Anthony Mackie, Detroit
Michael Shannon, The Current War
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call me by your name

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Kristin Scott-Thomas, The Darkest Hour
Naomi Watts, The Glass Castle

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Downsizing
Dunkirk
mother!
The Phantom Thread
The Post

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call me by your name
Lean on Pete
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Wonderstruck

[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1202064435

Academy Award Nominee John Boyega?

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#1201994302

How do I check how I did with my Oscar predictions?

I’m confused, I don’t find the option in the fórums or the page!

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#600092

“Coattail” doesn’t mean “bad”. It just means that a strong lead performance help a not-so-great (But nice, I guess) supporting one to get the nomination. Sometimes it’s so obvious that it only happens at the Oscars (Tom Hardy and Maggie Gyllenhaal, I’m looking at you). It’s not the same as a filler nomination (Alan Arkin in Argo, Helen Mirren in The Last Station or Susan Sarandon in The Client, for instance). It’s true that some GREAT leading performances have helped supporting ones get recognised, like Cate Blanchett did with Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine, but I wouldn’t call that a coattail nomination…

2015
Tom Hardy, The Revenant

2014
Laura Dern, Wild

2013
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

2012
Jackie Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

2011
Jonah Hill, Moneyball

2009
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

2005
Frances McDormand, North Country

2004
Alan Alda, The Aviator

2001
Jon Voight, Ali

2000
Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich

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[seabel Joined: Nov 21st, 2012 Topics: 70 Posts: 2208 View Predictions]

#600089

I think I’m going to name this, officially, my first prediction of the year.

BEST PICTURE
01. The Birth of a Nation
02. Silence
03. Loving
04. La La Land
05. Story of your life
06. Howard Hughes 
07. Lion
08. Sully
09. Manchester by the sea
10. Fences

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Martin Scorsese, Silence
02. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
03. Jeff Nichols, Loving
04. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
05. Warren Beatty, Howard Hughes

Alternative: Garth Davis, Lion / Denis Villeneuve, Story of your life

BEST ACTOR
01. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the sea
02. Denzel Washington, Fences
03. Joel Edgerton, Loving
04. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
05. Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Alternative: Michael Keaton, The Founder

BEST ACTRESS
01. Viola Davis, Fences
02. Ruth Negga, Loving
03. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
04. Amy Adams, Story of your life
05. Emma Stone, La La Land

Alternative: Michelle Pfeiffer, Beat-up little seagull

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Liam Neeson, Silence
02. Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation
03. Adam Driver, Silence
04. Aaron Eckhart, Sully
05. J.K. Simmons, La La Land

Alternative: Edgar Ramirez, Gold

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the sea
02. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
03. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
04. Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans
05. Saoirse Ronan, The Seagull

Alternative: Nicole Kidman, Lion

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. La La Land
02. Loving
03. Hail, Caesar!
04. The Birth of a Nation
05. Manchester by the sea

Alternative: Moonlight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Silence
02. Fences
03. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
04. Sully
05. Julieta

Alternative: Lion