Forum Replies Created
April 25, 2021 at 6:48 am #1204220794
My Octopussy Teacher is going to give me those nice pts. and the hype is real re normies going up for this. I have to say seeing the trailers of all the 15 eligible films, this was truly a murder row of contenders.
I watched My Octopus Teacher already knowing what would happen (I watch a lot of nature stuff and know the plight of the female Pacific octopus well). I still loved it. It showed how an unlikely teacher came into this man’s life.April 23, 2021 at 5:09 pm #1204218165
FEELING THROUGH is the likely winner IMO. it’s been out on youtube since january and has over 3 M views and has won many awards …moreover, it’s positive and uplifting, featuring a blind/deaf actor, and the voters seem to like those types of shorts with previous winners such as the SILENT CHILD and the STUTTERER I dont think shorts like TWO DISTANT STRANGERS and LOVESONG FOR NATASHA are tapping into the mood of the voters, quite frankly, cos I think they are burnt out on the BLM political theme and want something less devisive ;as such I think that FEELING THROUGH and A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION is the soothing balm for these troubled times
After this week’s events I think Distant Strangers and Love Song for Latasha look like probable winners. They reflect the times. The Oscars are fairly political.April 20, 2021 at 2:00 am #1204210814
it seems we do not have a real favorite here… or people who watch documentaries are minority 😉
I went to a screening of all of them and actually loved all of them. Love Song for Latasha will win. I think maybe for me the one that got me the most was Don’t Split about Hong Kong fighting for its freedom. And the way it’s told is very powerful.April 18, 2021 at 5:16 pm #1204208109
I just checked my predictions and found that I am only predicting 5 categories to go to a movie that isn’t in first place in the Gold Derby predictions center!!! Best Actress: Viola Davis; Best Original Screenplay: Promising Young Woman; Makeup & Hairstyling: Mank; Costume Design: Mulan; and Documentary Short: Do Not Split – this one is in 5th place and is a totally way out there gut intuition pick based solely on the description of the film! I am hoping I can get at least 80% correct this year!
I just saw all the shorts. FWIW it’s amazing how powerful these short films are. They’re so good. If you go to ifc.com you can pay to watch them. I liked Don’t Split a lot but Love Song fir Latasha will win.April 18, 2021 at 4:52 pm #1204208088
Yeah. I think a bit like Crazy Rich Asians. Will be interesting to see if that lands it a Best Picture nomination with 10 slots though.
I think it will and it’ll get acting nominations for lead actor (Anthony Ramos) and supporting actress (Olga Merediz). I think for director and maybe screenplay. The film is very Oscar baity. And Merediz will blow people away.April 17, 2021 at 10:29 am #1204205348
Whoopy deserved her win. The succès of a good acting relies on how memorable the performance is and whoopy is iconic in this role. You can rewatch her movie again and again you’ll always appreciate her appearance. your list sucks Alicia and Anne also deserved their win
Sally Field should’ve won for Lincoln. She was the role. As a seasoned theatergoer I find Hathaway’s take over the top, melodramatic and I can tell she’s acting. Also crying your way through a beautiful song is not interpreting it. I’m a trained singer and if I’d done that my instructor would’ve yelled at me.April 16, 2021 at 7:50 am #1204203633
I’m speaking with several Oscar voters right now secretly. In asking about the song category, I have been surprised how many are bringing up Eurovision. Some have said it’s their choice because it actually is used in the movie and is not just stuck into the end credits. When I interviewed Lin-Manuel Miranda a few years ago, he had just joined the Academy and said he would never vote for an end credits song not used in the film. And now he will probably do it anyway for Odom, but his philosophy is definitely held by several or many members. It’s a very tough category to figure out.
Leslie Odom Jr. is a rising star. He wrote the song and is a double nominee. He was the best part of the film. And he’s been making the rounds. I think he’s going to squeak through.April 16, 2021 at 7:45 am #1204203626
I think Chadwick and My Octopus Teacher will
win as will Ma Rainey for costumes and makeup.
I have Viola in second for actress.April 16, 2021 at 7:42 am #1204203621
I so want you to be right about this! But I am still predicting Boseman – the narrative is too strong and there is a herd mentality among a majority of academy members – they do as they are told and they have been told they must vote for the dead guy. I would cast my vote for Riz Ahmed but Anthony Hopkins would be a superb choice too!!!! I wonder if an ordinals system were used in the voting if the results would be really different? I think voters would be more honest by simply doing a 1-5 vote and a more accurate winner would happen (and very different winners I strongly suspect!)
I don’t think Hopkins will win. He can literally win again. Boseman’s chances end here. He was a young, promising star cut down in his prime. That, coupled with the racial tensions are going to give him the Oscar. I think both winners for actor and actress will come from non best picture nominees (I think all four acting winners will be people of color).April 16, 2021 at 5:50 am #1204203499
Graduated with a Pol Sci major then to become an Oscar winning director is marvelous. Does she plan on going back to your school to give a talk? That would be very cool.
I would go for that. We’re the same age. I’d love to know if she took the poly sci class I did. Mount Holyoke is a very special school. It tends to turn out women who want to lead and change things. And I’m hoping she’ll give the school a shout out. It’s a wonderful place.
I’d bet she’ll be a commencement speaker maybe next year.April 16, 2021 at 5:36 am #1204203484
This is Chloe Zhao’s to lose. It’s very are for a first time filmmaker to win any screenplay category on their first film. Just ask Spike Lee, James Ivory, Aaorn Sorkin who had to wait decades before they won an Oscar in screenwriting, I’m well aware Zeller has had experience with writing before for stage plays, but this is his first film. There is another writer for the film but Zeller getting the Oscar too is a potential roadblock. Zeller losing at the DGA First Feature director is telling that there is not enough support for The Father in wins that will result in the film going home empty handed. The film is too stagey which also might explain his loss and play adaptations also rarely win this category. The Father has a much stronger shot in Actor in my opinion because nothing will stop the Chloe Zhao sweep on April 25.
As an alumna of the same college as Chloe Zhao (Mount Holyoke) I’m proud to see her success. (She graduated two years behind me. Interesting note-she majored in political science.) I think she’s going to win all four of her possible awards-Director, Screenplay, Picture, and Editing.April 16, 2021 at 5:30 am #1204203478
Olivia Colman is a household name in the UK. She has a lead actress BAFTA, 3 TV BAFTAs, 3 Golden Globes, 2 SAG Awards, and 2 AACTA Awards. Her international appeal is unmatched. The Father got in at every category it needed to be. Hopkins won against Boseman the sweeper and won against Best Picture sweeper Nomadland. Colman would coattail with Hopkins considering how weak her competition would be. Minari in Best Film longlist: ERROR 404 Minari in Original Screenplay: ERROR 404
Anthony Hopkins isn’t beating Chadwick Boseman. This will be the late Boseman’s career cap. I think Boseman should’ve been in supporting (and even then Steven Yuen might be more competitive). But Boseman is in leading and I think he’s one of the winners I feel most comfortable predicting.April 16, 2021 at 5:17 am #1204203455
Since there aren’t any updates as to when The Next Goal Wins will be released and following the allegations made against Armie Hammer, I think it’ll probably be postponed. Here are my updated predictions. APRIL PREDICTIONS PICTURE 1. The Power of the Dog 2. Last Night in Soho 3. House of Gucci 4. Don’t Worry Darling 5. The French Dispatch 6. Nightmare Alley 7. Passing 8. Soggy Bottom 9. Eternals 10. In The Heights DIRECTOR 1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 2. Edgar Wright, Last Night in Soho 3. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci 4. Olivia Wilde, Don’t Worry Darling 5. Robert Eggers, The Northman ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 1. Edgar Wright & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, Last Night in Soho 2. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch 3. Katie Silberman & Van Dyke Brothers, Don’t Worry Darling 4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom 5. Paul Schrader, The Card Counter ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 2. Guillermo Del Toro & Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley 3. Robert Bentivegna, House of Gucci 4. Rebecca Hall, Passing 5. Maggie Gyllenhaal & Elena Ferrante, The Lost Daughter LEAD ACTOR 1. Adam Driver, Annette 2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog 3. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley 4. Anthony Ramos, In The Heights 5. Oscar Isaac, The Card Counter LEAD ACTRESS 1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog 2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci 3. Tessa Thompson, Passing 4. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling 5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter 2. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom 3. Al Pacino, House of Gucci 4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog 5. Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Ruth Negga, Passing 2. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel 3. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley 4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho 5. Marion Cotillard, Annette SCORE 1. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog 2. Steven Price, Last Night in Soho 3. Alexandre Desplat, Nightmare Alley 4. Hildur Gudnadottir, Amsterdam 5. Ramin Djawadi, Eternals CINEMATOGRAPHY 1. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley 2. Jarin Blaschke, The Northman 3. Ben Davis, Eternals 4. Dariusz Wolski, The Last Duel 5. Emmanuel Lubezki, Amsterdam FILM EDITING 1. Paul Machliss, Last Night in Soho 2. Andrew Weisblum, The French Dispatch 3. Dylan Tichenor, Eternals 4. Peter Sciberras, The Power of The Dog 5. Joe Walker, Dune PRODUCTION DESIGN 1. Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch 2. Arthur Max, House of Gucci 3. Florencia Martin, Soggy Bottom 4. Marcus Rowland, Last Night in Soho 5. Tamara Deverell & Shane Deveau, Nightmare Alley COSTUME DESIGN 1. Janty Yates, House of Gucci 2. Odile Dicks-Mireaux, Last Night in Soho 3. J.R. Hawbawker & Albert Wolsky, Amsterdam 4. Alexandra Byrne & Sammy Sheldon, Eternals 5. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING 1. Soggy Bottom 2. House of Gucci 3. The Last Duel 4. The French Dispatch 5. Last Night in Soho SOUND 1. In The Heights 2. Last Night in Soho 3. Dune 4. No Time To Die 5. Mission Impossible VII VISUAL EFFECTS 1. Dune 2. Godzilla vs Kong 3. Mission Impossible VII 4. Eternals 5. No Time To Die ORIGINAL SONG 1. No Time To Die 2. In The Heights 3. Annette 4. Encanto 5. Last Night in Soho ANIMATED FEATURE 1. Encanto 2. Luca 3. Raya and The Last Dragon 4. The Boss Baby: Family Business 5. Sing 2
Supporting Actress-Olga Merediz for In the Heights. She gets the best song and it’ll resonate. She was awesome in the stage version. I love her solo “ Pacencia y Fe”. Also her character is very important to the story. I think Merediz could win.April 4, 2021 at 7:30 am #1204174777
Supporting actress at the BAFTAs might go to Fishbavk. They seemed to like Judas. This is her consolation for not having the Oscar nom.Not now