I’m most unsure about doc short: Lanzmann:Shoa, A Girl in the River, or Chau. Body Team 12 and A Girl in the River would compete for the same audience, and I believe the latter is more emotional and invokes more sympathy. Chau is very “baity” and inspiring; disbaled Asian child who dreams to be an artist. And Shoa would theoretically appeal to most Academy members who decide to vote in the category.
If one also takes into account members who’d vote without watching the shorts and likely vote per the title that appeals most, those three still have the most advantange, with Shoa and A Girl in the River benefiting most.
I think any short but Ave Maria can win live action, but Shok, Stutterer and Day One have the strongest chance. Shok feels like the most exhaustive or “substantial” perhaps, but Stutterer is likely the baitiest.
Animation is between Bear Story, WoT, and Sanjay, but I wouldn’t discount Cosmos. Sanjay wouldn’t be considered the best by the vast majority of voters, but it ticks the race/minority box. Bear and Cosmos appeal to the emotions, and Bear has arguably the best animation. World of Tomorrow has the prestige and it’s the most amibitous or forward-thinking, maybe “arty”, and because of that I don’t think it would win with a popular vote. It would win if it impresses most voters and they prefer it over the affecting stories. Think of it as the Mad Max or the Carol (per the general perception) of shorts.
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