[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#1202142982

Is there a reason why Blair Brown, who played a comedic character, is listed but other Orange actresses aren’t a voting option? None of Selenis Leyva, Elizabeth Rodriguez, Jessica Pimentel, Laura Prepon, Natasha Lyonne, Yael Stone, Taryn Manning, among others.

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#1202142974

Has this been posted?
The Story Behind Orange Is the New Black’s Torture Scene and the Deleted Moment That Alters Piscatella’s Story
http://www.vulture.com/2017/06/orange-is-the-new-black-torture-piscatella-deleted-scene.html

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#219038

I am so happy to have gotten that prediction wrong (switched today to the safe choice) . So happy for Rylance! The academy showed integrity.

 
2/3 short categories right so far. 

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#213865

The Revenant and Mad Max tied in the sound editing guild.

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#213863

I’m curious why those predicting a split in the sound categories are predicting Revenant in Mixing and Mad Max in Editing. The inverse makes more sense to me.

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#217241

I’m most unsure about doc short: Lanzmann:Shoa, A Girl in the River, or Chau. Body Team 12 and A Girl in the River would compete for the same audience, and I believe the latter is more emotional and invokes more sympathy. Chau is very “baity” and inspiring; disbaled Asian child who dreams to be an artist. And Shoa would theoretically appeal to most Academy members who decide to vote in the category. 

If one also takes into account members who’d vote without watching the shorts and likely vote per the title that appeals most, those three still have the most advantange, with Shoa and A Girl in the River benefiting most.

I think any short but Ave Maria can win live action, but Shok, Stutterer and Day One have the strongest chance. Shok feels like the most exhaustive or “substantial” perhaps, but Stutterer is likely the baitiest. 

Animation is between Bear Story, WoT, and Sanjay, but I wouldn’t discount Cosmos. Sanjay wouldn’t be considered the best by the vast majority of voters, but it ticks the race/minority box. Bear and Cosmos appeal to the emotions, and Bear has arguably the best animation. World of Tomorrow has the prestige and it’s the most amibitous or forward-thinking, maybe “arty”, and because of that I don’t think it would win with a popular vote. It would win if it impresses most voters and they prefer it over the affecting stories. Think of it as the Mad Max or the Carol (per the general perception) of shorts. 

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#210765

Well just know mine would’ve scored 100%. GD’s loss.

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#201162

Fair enough. 
I too don’t think he’s a shoo-in. We’ll see if the tide turns.

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#210761

Why are predictions closed if the awards don’t start for another 2.5 hours 

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#210063

The only Oscar-worthy directorial achievement (out of the 3 directorial achievements nominated) for me is Miller’s. Such an effing shame Haynes isn’t there.
Inarritu, Miller, McCarthy are currently frontrunners. We’ll see after the guilds.

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#210288

I would laugh so much and squeal if the winner was Carol – which I find the most deserving here actually. 
This is obviosuly between Seale and Lubezki (with Hateful Eight as a spoiler). I’m not enamoured with Lubezki’s work here, so I’m not rooting for him. I think Mad Max is deserving, but I really don’t mind any of the nominees winning (i’d rank Sicario 5th).

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#201154

God I hope Stallone doesn’t get this ridiculous sympathy/nostalgia/name-recognition/congrats-on-coming-back-full-circle-after-some-shitty-40-years win over Rylance. How anyone can seriosuly say his is the best supporting male perfomrance of the year..

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#210225

Between Cinderella and Danish Girl. Cinderella’s is a great costume design achievement. Cinderella’s sumptuous costumes/visuals are the film, and the film was a big, female-led BO success, so i’d be shocked if it doesn’t win. 

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#209269

^ You mean the directors branch. 

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[StardustParticipant Joined: Nov 13th, 2012 Topics: 17 Posts: 1592 View Predictions]

#208949

Who are the Weinstein’s pushing more, Mara or Leigh?

That will be a big factor. 

He’ll be pushing Mara of course.  

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