[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202811109

1960: Burt Lancaster, Elmer Gantry
1961: Maximillian Schell, Judgement at Nuremberg
1962: Gregory Peck, To Kill a Mockingbird
1963: Sidney Poitier, Lillies of the Field
1964: Peter Sellers, Dr. Strangelove
1965: Rod Steiger, The Pawnbroker
1966: Richard Burton, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
1967: Paul Newman, Cool Hand Luke
1968: Peter O’Toole, The Lion in Winter
1969: Dustin Hoffman, Midnight Cowboy
1970: George C. Scott, Patton
1971: Gene Hackman, The French Connection
1972: Marlon Brando, The Godfather
1973: Al Pacino, Serpico
1974: Jack Nicholson, Chinatown
1975: Al Pacino, Dog Day Afternoon
1976: Peter Finch, Network
1977: Woody Allen, Annie Hall
1978: Jon Voight, Coming Home
1979: Dustin Hoffman, Kramer vs. Kramer
1980: Robert DeNiro, Raging Bull
1981: Dudley Moore, Arthur
1982: Ben Kingsley, Gandhi
1983: Michael Caine, Educating Rita
1984: F. Murray Abraham, Amadeus
1985: William Hurt, Kiss of the Spider Woman
1986: Bob Hoskins, Mona Lisa
1987: Michael Douglas, Wall Street
1988: Tom Hanks, Big
1989: Daniel Day-Lewis, My Left Foot
1990: Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune
1991: Anthony Hopkins, The Silence of the Lambs
1992: Denzel Washington, Malcolm X
1993: Anthony Hopkins, The Remains of the Day
1994: Morgan Freeman, The Shawshank Redemption
1995: Nicholas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
1996: Geoffrey Rush, Shine
1997: Robert Duvall, The Apostle
1998: Ian McKellan, Gods & Monsters
1999: Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story
2000: Ed Harris, Pollock
2001: Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
2002: Adrien Brody, The Pianist
2003: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation
2004: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
2005: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
2006: Peter O’Toole, Venus
2007: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2008: Sean Penn, Milk
2009: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
2010: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2011: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
2012: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
2013: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
2014: Michael Keaton, Birdman
2015: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
2016: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2017: Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
2018: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202808898

I posted on this thread way back in 2011 but I figured I’d go ahead and post mine again and add more pre-1980 and update it to the present. And it’s strictly based on the nominees and not factoring in people who were snubbed.

1960-Shirley MacLaine, The Apartment
1961-Sophia Loren, Two Women
1962-Katharine Hepburn, Long Days Journey into Night
1963-Patricia Neal, HUD
1964-Anne Bancroft, The Pumpkin Eater
1965-Julie Christie, Darling
1966-Elizabeth Taylor, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
1967-Dame Edith Evans, The Whisperers
1968-Katharine Hepburn, The Lion in Winter
1969-Maggie Smith, The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie
1970-Glenda Jackson, Women in Love
1971-Jane Fonda, Klute
1972-Liza Minelli, Cabaret
1973-Ellen Burstyn, The Exorcist
1974-Gena Rowlands, A Woman Under the Influence
1975-Louise Fletcher, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
1976-Faye Dunaway, Network
1977-Diane Keaton, Annie Hall
1978-Ingrid Bergman, Autumn Sonata
1979-Sally Field, Norma Rae
1980-Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner’s Daughter
1981-Susan Sarandon, Atlantic City
1982-Meryl Streep, Sophie’s Choice
1983-Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment
1984-Jessica Lange, Country
1985-Geraldine Page, The Trip to Bountiful
1986-Sigourney Weaver, Aliens
1987-Glenn Close, Fatal Attraction
1988-Meryl Streep, A Cry in the Dark
1989-Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy
1990-Kathy Bates, Misery
1991-Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs
1992-Emma Thompson, Howards End
1993-Holly Hunter, The Piano
1994-Miranda Richardson, Tom & Viv
1995-Elisabeth Shue, Leaving Las Vegas
1996-Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies
1997-Judi Dench, Mrs. Brown
1998-Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth
1999-Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry
2000-Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream
2001-Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom
2002-Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven
2003-Charlize Theron, Monster
2004-Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind
2005-Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
2006-Helen Mirren, The Queen
2007-Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2008-Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
2009-Carey Mulligan, An Education
2010-Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right
2011-Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
2012-Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
2013-Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2014-Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
2015-Brie Larson, Room
2016-Natalie Portman, Jackie
2017-Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
2018-Olivia Colman, The Favourite

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202795772

My ranking:

#1-Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
#2-Olivia Colman, The Favourite
#3-Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
#4-Natalie Portman, Black Swan
#5-Julianne Moore, Still Alice
#6-Brie Larson, Room
#7-Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
#8-Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
#9-Emma Stone, La La Land

[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202795483

Best Picture:
Moonlight

Best Director:
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

Best Actor:
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress:
Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor:
J. K. Simmons – Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis – Fences

Best Original Screenplay:
Birdman

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Moonlight

Best Film Editing:
Whiplash

Best Cinematography:
Roma

Best Production Design:
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Costume Design:
Phantom Thread

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Visual Effects:
First Man

Best Sound Editing:
Arrival

Best Sound Mixing:
Whiplash

Best Original Score:
The Shape of Water

Best Original Song:
‘Shallow’ – A Star Is Born

Best Animated Feature:
Inside Out

Best Documentary Feature:
Icarus

Best Foreign Language Film:
The Salesman [Iran]

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202793508

I wrote a long thing about how passionate I was for Cotillard to win then it got erased. Aaaauuugh!

Long story short. I think by the time of the Oscars, it was known by a lot of people following the race that Cotillard had picked up steam. I predicted Christie because I just wanted to prep for disappointment and prayed to be wrong. That was also a crazy year in that Cotillard only got to give a speech at the BAFTA since the Globes were off due to the writers strike. It did sort of make her win seem a little more surprising since she hadn’t given one on American TV like Christie had been.

Still, Colman is the biggest shocker easily. She deserves the award but it just seemed like the narrative and performance were near undeniable for Close. I knew Colman had a shot due to the rumblings of voters showing more support in the anonymous ballots (then again they did for Richard E. Grant too), but it seemed like it was Close’s moment.

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202793469

The problem with Rami Malek is that it’s a good performance to some degree but the fact that it gained award traction is a bit much. I remember going into LA LA LAND and coming out thinking Emma Stone did a good job…but when she won the SAG, I was floored. I couldn’t believe that this performance was going to be gaining traction over her other nominees.

I like Rami Malek and thought he did well in a film that was incredibly flawed…but he should not have even been nominated. The fact that Ethan Hawke got snubbed here is a travesty.

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202784717

I never took to The Color Purple as many others have, and I think a lot of that had to deal with Spielberg.

Had Whoopi won, it would’ve been very well deserved as it was a spectacular debut. However, I still think I’d vote for Geraldine Page in what certainly seemed like a career win but the performance itself warranted the prize. I do agree that INTERIORS really worked the best for her in terms of her usual mannered tics, but that race was tough since she had to compete next to Jill Clayburgh and Ingrid Bergman.

As for the other nominees from the Page race, I think Streep was quite good in the role even though I was bored to tears by OUT OF AFRICA. I also liked Jessica Lange, too. I don’t think Anne Bancroft was bad but there were other more viable options especially when she was basically close to being supporting.

The previously mentioned Norma Aleandro and Mia Farrow are great choices and I also want to throw in Cher for MASK.

[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202781356

BULLOCK: -3
CROWE: -2

COTILLARD: +2
HARDEN (Pollock): +3

Charlize Theron, Monster (42)

Marion Cotillard, La vie en Rose (36)

Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood (35)
Mo’Nique, Precious (35)
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds (35)

Colin Firth, A Single Man (34)

Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (33)
Natalie Portman, Closer (33)

Amy Adams, Doubt (31)
Judi Dench, Notes On a Scandal (31)
Laura Linney, You Can Count On Me (31)
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator (31)

Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls (30)
Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream (30)
George Clooney, Up in The Air (30)
Javier Bardem, Before Night Falls (30)
Penelope Cruz, Volver (30)

Renee Zellweger, Chicago (29)

Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock (28)
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada (28)
Carey Mulligan, An Education (28)
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jone´s Diary (28)

Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago (27)
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton (27)
Helen Mirren, The Queen (27)

Amy Adams, Junebug (26)
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James (26)
Cate Blanchett, I´m Not There (26)
Cate Blanchett, Notes On a Scandal (26)
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator (26)
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain (26)
Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (26)
Kate Winslet, The Reader (26)
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice (26)

Johnny Depp, Pirates of The Caribbean I (25)
Adriana Barraza, Babel (25)
Adrien Brody, The Pianist (25)
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone (25)
Angelina Jolie, Changeling (25)
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air (25)
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (25)
Annette Bening, Being Julia (25)
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog (25)
Benicio del Toro, 21 Grams (25)
Benicio del Toro, Traffic (25)
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation (25)
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (25)
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace (25)
Catherine Keener, Capote (25)
Charlize Theron, North Country (25)
Chris Cooper, Adaptation (25)
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can (25)
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby (25)
Clive Owen, Closer (25)
David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck (25)
Diane Keaton, Something´s Gotta Give (25)
Diane Lane, Unfaithful (25)
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond (25)
Djimon Hounsou, In America (25)
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda (25)
Ed Harris, Pollock (25)
Ed Harris, The Hours (25)
Ellen Page, Juno (25)
Ethan Hawke, Training Day (25)
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica (25)
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland (25)
Frances McDormand, Almost Famous (25)
Frances McDormand, North Country (25)
Frank Langella, Front/Nixon (25)
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious (25)
Geoffrey Rush, Quills (25)
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild (25)
Halle Berry, Monster´s Ball (25)
Helen Mirren, Gosford Park (25)
Helen Mirren, The Last Station (25)
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby (25)
Holly Hunter, Thirteen (25)
Ian McKellen, The Lord of The Rings I (25)
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake (25)
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children (25)
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt (25)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain (25)
Jamie Foxx, Collateral (25)
Jamie Foxx, Ray (25)
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men (25)
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (25)
Jeff Bridges, The Contender (25)
Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind (25)
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls (25)
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker (25)
Jim Broadbent, Iris (25)
Joan Allen, The Contender (25)
Joaquin Phoenix, Gladiator (25)
John C. Reilly, Chicago (25)
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland (25)
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd (25)
Jon Voight, Ali (25)
Josh Brolin, Milk (25)
Jude Law, Cold Mountain (25)
Judi Dench, Chocolat (25)
Judi Dench, Iris (25)
Judi Dench, Mrs Henderson Presents (25)
Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich (25)
Julianne Moore, The Hours (25)
Julie Christie, Away From Her (25)
Julie Walters, Billy Elliot (25)
Juliette Binoche, Chocolat (25)
Kate Hudson, Almost Famous (25)
Kate Winslet, Iris (25)
Kate Winslet, Little Children (25)
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider (25)
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai (25)
Laura Linney, Kinsey (25)
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart (25)
Maggie Smith, Gosford Park (25)
Marisa Tomei, In The Bedroom (25)
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler (25)
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River (25)
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed (25)
Matt Damon, Invictus (25)
Matt Dilon, Crash (25)
Melissa Leo, Frozen River (25)
Meryl Streep, Doubt (25)
Michael Caine, The Quiet American (25)
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road (25)
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain (25)
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (25)
Morgan Freeman, Invictus (25)
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby (25)
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams (25)
Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge! (25)
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April (25)
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man (25)
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition (25)
Penelope Cruz, Nine (25)
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona (25)
Peter O´Toole, Venus (25)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote (25)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt (25)
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener (25)
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain (25)
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor (25)
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel (25)
Ruby Dee, American Gangster (25)
Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind (25)
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson (25)
Salma Hayek, Frida (25)
Samantha Morton, In America (25)
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement (25)
Sean Penn, I Am Sam (25)
Sean Penn, Milk (25)
Sean Penn, Mystic River (25)
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog (25)
Sissy Spacek, In The Bedroom (25)
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda (25)
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (25)
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow (25)
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways (25)
Tim Robbins, Mystic River (25)
Tom Hanks, Cast Away (25)
Tom Wilkinson, In The Bedroom (25)
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton (25)
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah (25)
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air (25)
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises (25)
Viola Davis, Doubt (25)
Virginia Madsen, Sideways (25)
Will Smith, Ali (25)
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness (25)
William Hurt, A History of Violence (25)
Willem Dafoe, Shadow of the Vampire (25)
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger (25)

Albert Finney, Erin Brockovich (24)
George Clooney, Michael Clayton (24)
Kathy Bates, About Schmidt (24)
Meryl Streep, Adaptation. (24)
Queen Latifah, Chicago (24)
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder (24)

Johnny Depp, Pirates of The Caribbean I (23)
Nicolas Cage, Adaptation (23)

Russell Crowe, Gladiator (22)
Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line (22)
Denzel Washington, Training Day (22)
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk The Line (22)
Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast (22)
George Clooney, Syriana (22)

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine (21)
Laura Linney, The Savages (21)

Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine (20)
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (20)
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones (20)

Alan Alda, The Aviator (19)
Nicole Kidman, The Hours (19)

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson´s War (18)

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (17)

Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York (16)
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (16)

Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond (14)

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age (12)

Alec Baldwin, The Cooler (9)

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (0)

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202777216

I’ve never once believed the ties at the CC Awards.

They also famously tied Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway which of course backfired on them as the Kate Winslet train took off when she got bumped up to Lead.

I also remember the tie between Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis in 2003. I think they even tied at some other major critics awards but it did seem like an example where they wanted to cover their bases.

[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202772392

I was all for Marion Cotillard and wanted her to win so bad, but I was prepping myself for disappointment and actually predicted Julie Christie and hoping to be wrong. So happy that I WAS!!

In terms of upsets or at least mild ones, that same year I predicted Tilda Swinton on a hunch primarily because that race was all over the place in the precursors with only really Saoirse Ronan not having the best shot (although I remember some saying the extreme vote splitting from the other four could benefit her). I basically went for Swinton because I felt she was the best in the category, it could also be seen as something of a career award, she won the most recent of televised precursors, and it was a way to honor Michael Clayton.

I also called Alan Arkin, primarily because of the rumblings that a lot of people were turned off by Eddie Murphy’s demeanor and then when Dreamgirls was left out of the Best Picture race, I just felt like they wouldn’t give the movie TWO acting Oscars. Arkin had the veteran angle and another way to honor Little Miss Sunshine (though I wouldn’t have voted for him).

This year, I really think Supporting Actress is the only one that’s a true open race. I think it is King vs. Weisz but I also have this weird feeling about Marina del Tavira.

I can’t see any real big shocker in the other races.

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202771906

Eddy Q wrote:

I’ve never understood the argument for Weisz as a lead in The Constant Gardener. As far as I remember she only appears in flashback and is absent for most of the second half of the film, though it’s been a while since I saw it.

I agree completely. I have always been baffled by this argument. It’s been years since I’ve seen that movie but she maybe has, at most, 25 minutes of screen time and she is pretty much gone from the movie after the first half and most of it was in flashbacks. Of course, the flashback angle alone doesn’t make her supporting but the time on screen certainly does. And yes, you could argue that Anthony Hopkins won in lead for a shorter performance….that was an interesting case, but still, I think Weisz was properly in Supporting.

I’m excited for this race though. I still think it’s King vs. Weisz but I also have a weird feeling about Marina being a strong darkhorse.

[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202764148

I voted for Stewart, but I do have to say that Donat’s win is still a great one in its own right. I’d probably rank Gable as 4th or 5th here.

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202764146

I still think Ali’s win and sweep of the critics awards is very baffling. It’s not that it was a bad performance but there just wasn’t anything there that made me go, wow…let’s give him an Oscar. It’s even more apparent when Ashton Sanders comes along in the film and does a magnificent job.

I think Lucas Hedges should’ve taken this. Most people talked about Affleck and Williams’ performances and understandly so, but I felt he was of equal quality to them. Such a good performance and another example of the Academy not acknowledging the performance of a younger male.

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202763176

Atypical wrote:

Michael Douglas and Glenn Close presented Best Supporting Actress Oscar to Olympia Dukakis with Anne Archer as a nominee (like she had a prayer of winning that year). Close was fine, but there was a tinge of disappointment in her voice. So tacky.

And that same year, Cher and Nicholas Cage presented Best Supporting Actor to Sean Connery when their costar from Moonstruck, Vincent Gardenia, was nominated. He also didn’t really have a shot and I think Cher’s announcement of Connery was even more less enthusiastic than Close’s…although I didn’t think Close was that bad.

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[AnthonyParticipant Joined: Dec 17th, 2011 Topics: 2 Posts: 777 View Predictions]

#1202522528

Honestly, I would’ve given this to Andrew Garfield.

#1-Garfield
2-Mortensen
3-Affleck
4-Washington
5-Gosling

I agree that Washington just had something about him that didn’t entirely click, while Gosling just gave a fine performance that didn’t wow or impress me in any way. It just felt “there” for me.

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