Forum Replies Created
May 23, 2019 at 10:34 am #1202905927
Damn, I only have 52/1 odds on Emma Thompson, although I see that you actually have 95/1 odds on Robin Weigert, so I have you slightly beat there. It is the only category with three predictions at 100/1 for both of us. Not even Critics’ Choice nominated Eliza Scanlen (or Cody Fern). My recommendation in response to your Phoebe Waller-Bridge one is Ricky Gervais.May 23, 2019 at 10:24 am #1202905921
I figure that Daniel Palladino is safe because I do not think that voters will be able to distinguish the episodes of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, so anyone who wants to support the show at all will vote the ticket. Voters will know which episode “ronny/lily” is, so I could see people not checking off “The Audition” because they already took care of Barry on their ballots. It is like how the pilot was so clearly the obvious choice from The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel last year that the snub of its other directing contender was not a sign of weakness.May 23, 2019 at 10:02 am #1202905899
After Arquette and Clarkson, I can see eight different women who can take up those last four slots. Currently, I have Farmiga, Weigert, Thompson, and Watson.
These have been my exact six since Nash vacated and I see that we even have them in the exact same order now. Cool that we have the same six, given that only three of these are favoured in the odds; the other three are the next in line. I am not sure that I have come across someone with as similar predictions across the board actually because even where we differ, you have some people that I had a week ago.May 23, 2019 at 9:52 am #1202905888
I have always been intrigued by the prospect of watching only the pilot and finale of something and that is what ended up happening here, with my having seen the pilot maybe a decade ago. I was totally lost. This does not work as a standalone movie at all, which is fine by the way because this should be for the fans, but that might affect its Emmy chances with the academy having admitted so many millennials in recent years. (I did appreciate a surprise uncredited cameo though.) The short run hurt Deadwood‘s legacy and it has fallen in the pantheon of great modern television dramas from third to at least fifth, so I am not sure that many have bothered to catch up during the off years.
I went into this season thinking that Black Mirror would cruise to another win, but the buzz on Deadwood became strong and I am pretty set on David Milch winning writing at this point just because of his Alzheimer’s. That Parts Unknown sweep last year was something. But reviews are a bit soft so far and this being indecipherable to the uninitiated has me doubting this again. I also went into this season thinking that this would be a non-factor above the line outside of the pathetic movie category, but the buzz got me to add Ian McShane (and Robin Weigert just because that category is such a mess that Emily Watson has basically reached lock status when the category has consistently ignored her for similar work). But he did not have a ton to do here. I mean, he spends half the movie in bed and even when he is out of it, he is largely just looking down on the action from his balcony. His category has gotten a lot more crowded too. Timothy Olyphant is the one who gets to shoot people and cry. Intercut flashbacks show that Olyphant has aged much better than McShane.
Always hard to tell if the Emmys are just going to nominate who they want instead of the performances that make sense based on the content of the programs (like Michael Stuhlbarg and John Leguizamo last year), but based on material, the only people who are competitive for nominations should be Olyphant, McShane, Weigert, Gerald McRaney and Paula Malcomson, which is exactly what Chris said above. Nobody is a lock though and nobody wowed me. Despite being one of the five cast members who are not just billed alphabetically (with everyone aforementioned by Weigert), Molly Parker has nothing to do except look forlorn. Anna Gunn is in the same situation. Kim Dickens has such a small role that I am almost surprised that she is even eligible. I suppose that John Hawkes does stuff, but that is a low bar for an Emmy nomination. McRaney is the big bad and he is up to the task, but I did not get the sense that this was particularly challenging for him and he has a stacked category. I do not have either Eric Lange or Stellan Skarsgård, so it would be kind of weird for me to add McRaney when I do not see Deadwood being as strong as those programs and he was never nominated for the original run. Weigert definitely has a supporting role, but I suppose that she is a fun character. Malcomson is neither a name nor the face of the show, so she needs Deadwood to strong enough in its own right to sweep her up.
The cinematography by Homeland‘s David Klein and the directing by Daniel Minahan seemed pedestrian and it was jarring for me how stagey it was. I interviewed Minahan last year for his directing and producing of The Assassination of Gianni Versace, but he had not even signed on to this at that time. “The Movie” does not appear on screen. Nic Pizzolatto’s contribution is uncredited. Carolyn Strauss could sweep the Emmys this year, as executive producer of Outstanding Drama Series Game of Thrones, Outstanding Limited Series Chernobyl and Outstanding Movie Deadwood. David E. Kelley of course won both his two in 1999, but this seems like it would be a first. Seems like she was really hands-on with all of them, as opposed to getting a vanity credit like Olyphant and McShane here.May 23, 2019 at 7:45 am #1202905697
Does anybody know which episodes are being submitted for Directing, Writing, Cinematography and Music?
My guess is that “The Long Night”, “The Last of the Starks” and “The Iron Throne” are the directing submissions. I think that “The Iron Throne” is their writing submission. I see “The Long Night” and “The Iron Throne” being on the cinematography ballot, but I have no clue about David Franco’s submission; he did the David Nutter episodes. Nominating Fabian Wagner for “The Long Night” after snubbing him for “Battle of the Bastards” seems like a very Emmy thing to do, but I should be looking for places that the show will under-perform and the show tends to under-perform in cinematography anyway. Ramin Djawadi has a few options, including “The Long Night” and “The Iron Throne”, but I feel like there was one between those two with some prominent pieces.
Riley made reference to it in the thread for guest categories.
All that I did was reveal that you had gotten her submitted.
Congrats mafro&Riley on your effort, but how her managers were able to submit after the deadline?
I actually had no part in this.May 23, 2019 at 12:23 am #1202905323
[Merged duplicate threads.]May 23, 2019 at 12:17 am #1202905312
This is one of those shows that would get torn apart as a movie of the same caliber. It is like how every CW superhero show has 100% on the Tomatometer. Critics sometimes use kid gloves when it comes to television. After a tense opening, the first two episodes were hilarious and so entertaining because of how terrible they were. I cracked up at various scenes with ridiculous dialogue about monkeys that Julianna Margulies plays totally straight. She is bad in this, with the current limitations of her face doing the part no favours. I also do not know why she is wearing another wig. Not only is there no reason why this role requires straight hair, but the picture at the very end of the miniseries shows the real-life person with curly hair just like Margulies! The actual monkeys that figure prominently in later episodes are obviously not working with the same budget as the recent Planet of the Apes movies.
After the first two episodes, this settles into the accessible territory that I had anticipated that this would inhabit before I read any reviews. This is a popcorn take on important yet thrilling subject matter and a total non-factor in the writing and directing races. The dialogue is stilted and expository. I recall a phone call in which the recipient states to the caller that she is his wife. The tone is such a far cry from Chernobyl, which tackles similar content and is airing simultaneously. It will be embarrassing when the academy nominates both for the same top prize, but it is probably different voters propelling each.
Seventeen-time Emmy nominee and four-time winner Sean Callery composed the score and he unfortunately lives down to the material. Liam Cunningham is solid and has more to do than Margulies later on, but he is barely in the first episode and I do not see him transcending the quality of the show to a nomination. He has a packed category anyway. Noah Emmerich is decent. Topher Grace has been better. Strange that they did not submit James D’Arcy, but good for them arbitrarily drawing the line somewhere. Grace Gummer does well in a thankless role. Margulies will be carried in off the strength of her name and her position as the face of the show. The fourth episode is her hypothetical tape.May 22, 2019 at 10:15 pm #1202905288
Yeah, I get press access sometimes for Gold Derby.May 22, 2019 at 8:02 pm #1202905177
This IMDb thing is weird because what could be motivating it? That leads me to believe that people simply do love the show. But also why? I mean, it is good, but a lot of things have been good. Thirty thousand votes is not nothing either; that is almost fifty percent more than Barry has. This is going to be a tight race between Chernobyl and When They See Us.
It was the smallest possible increase, but the show can still say that it has built its audience each week and it will be cool if that continues in the final two weeks. I finished Chernobyl last night. The show overall is good, but the dialogue is not the sharpest, albeit never embarrassing. The ending intertitles are tonally inconsistent. The finale clinches the nomination for Jared Harris, not because it is a tour de force of acting, but because of the role of his character and sympathy that that will generate. Especially in the finale, it is clear how the trio of Harris, Stellan Skarsgård and Emily Watson are the core of the show, so it could be very easy for all three of them to get nominated. Skarsgård also gets a tender scene with Harris in the finale.May 22, 2019 at 7:49 pm #1202905167
The Handmaid’s Tale is done at the Globes. It is not cool anymore.May 22, 2019 at 7:09 pm #1202905153
Forgot about this! Where has the buzz been?
EDIT: I spoke too soon.May 22, 2019 at 2:22 pm #1202904873
Would have been cool if they had just waited a few weeks so that the Live + 7 total viewer numbers were not preliminary (for The Big Bang Theory and Game of Thrones in particular). Live + 7 in 18–49 is a strange concept to me and not entirely worth tracking.May 22, 2019 at 1:30 pm #1202904829
The academy is primarily male and men tend to make and prefer male-driven stories. I could see Veep and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel splitting the female/female-friendly vote and Barry pulling out the win. It is basically strong enough anyway that you could rationalize an upset for it even without that.
In addition to supporting actor, we will learn a lot by how directing and editing shake out. I anticipate that writing will just be two of each of the three, but directing cannot be because there are only five single-camera slots and there is even a new rule this year that prevents a tie in that particular category, so at least one of the three is going to prove weak enough not to get a second nomination. Editing only has five slots, so it is the same story there. Based on how they have submitted at the Emmys and other awards previously, I even anticipate that these three will each have the exact same number of episodes on the ballot in these three categories (two in writing, three in directing, two in editing).May 22, 2019 at 10:16 am #1202904603
Delayed for technical and other reasons, but anyway:
Drama Acting (32 minutes) with Riley, Amanda & Charlie