Forum Replies Created
January 20, 2019 at 12:10 am #1202740354
Amy Adams was snubbed criminally for Arrival because of split voting apparently, maybe she submitted herself for Nocturnal Animals as well.
Amy Adams was the weak link in Nocturnal Animals and arguably supporting, both in spite of her top billing. That film got one nomination. Arrival was her best performance in years and the film got eight nominations, including a win. Vote-splitting between her performances was not a factor. Nobody voted for her performance in Nocturnal Animals. It was not an accident that SAG, BAFTA, AACTA, OFCS, BFCA, HFPA and NBR recognized her for Arrival only.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 19, 2019 at 11:36 pm #1202740321
Roma needs BAFTA.
Green Book won PGA and the most Golden Globes. That would normally be your winner.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 19, 2019 at 11:21 pm #1202740311
Voting opened two weeks ago (two days before the Golden Globes) and closed yesterday (nine days after the latest controversies broke), so the majority of votes were likely turned in with the controversies in mind and in defiance of (or unfazed by) them.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 19, 2019 at 11:06 pm #1202740297
An amendment to my last post: BlacKkKlansman winning would have been bad for Roma actually.
Nobody is predicting Green Book for Best Editing and there are so many contenders in that category that pretty much anything can happen. Does this make Green Book a contender? PGA winners Birdman, Little Miss Sunshine and Brokeback Mountain missed Editing, so it has been just as likely in the 2000s and the expanded Best Picture era for the PGA winner to miss Editing as Director.
New rule of thumb: The PGA winner will get two SAG nominations, but miss Best Cast (Green Book, The Shape of Water, La La Land).
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 19, 2019 at 10:53 pm #1202740273
Hooray, I got the excuse that I needed to swap my fifth- and sixth-place predictions in supporting actress (Margot Robbie out for Linda Cardellini) and my third and fourth place in lead actor (Rami Malek down for Viggo Mortensen).
Little Miss Sunshine off the top of my head took PGA and failed to get a Best Director nomination, so Peter Farrelly stays out. Looking at the list now, Argo is the obvious example. Green Book has the lowest score on Metacritic of any PGA winner since Moulin Rouge!, which is another that missed Director.
Original Screenplay is going to be a photo finish. I am excited.
Anything but A Star is Born winning tonight would have kept Roma in the frontrunner position. Cool that Green Book‘s crowd-pleasing qualities overcame the backlash. I guess that the haters were wise to recognize the threat of it and try to smear it.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 19, 2019 at 9:50 am #1202739526
PGA being a preferential ballot will allow this show to win even though it has never been PGA nominated before.
Preferential is only for Best Picture.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 11:53 pm #1202739188
Now having seen all of the win-competitive performances, mark my words: SAG will fail to award either of the eventual Oscar lead winners for only the second time ever (Day-Lewis/Zellweger instead of Brody/Kidman). Rami Malek and Lady Gaga will win SAG, but they are not winning the Oscars.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 11:43 pm #1202739186
This post ended up being really long and more for me than anyone else.
I missed these earlier because these were not due until Monday! It still says it in the sidebar of every page of their website, including the one with the list of nominations. Leading the pack with three nominations apiece are First Man, Mission: Impossible, A Quiet Place and Roma. Hilarious that the musical category seems to comprise the only three submissions.
So, how did we get so many nominees in the other categories? First of all, it is standard for MPSE categories to have eight nominees. For categories in which there are nine nominees (most of them this year), that means that there was either a tie or the MPSE board “saved” a contender that was overlooked by the vote of the general membership.
For categories in which there are eight nominees exactly, that means that either: a) there was no tie and the board did not use their save, b) there were seventeen to twenty submissions in the category, which would normally yield seven nominees per MPSE rules, but there was a tie or c) there were three to twenty submissions in the category, which would yield anywhere from three to seven nominations, then the board used however many saves they could until they got to eight nominees.
It is a messed-up process. It is theoretically possible and not entirely far-fetched, given its CAS and BAFTA Sound snubs, that the board used its save for Roma in all three of the categories that Roma was nominated. (I should also point out how remarkable and suspicious it is that Roma was nominated in the score category without having a score.) As such, MPSE might be of more predictive value if you consider its snubs instead of its nominations. For example, Black Panther failed to score a nomination in the Dialogue/ADR category, which means that it was not in the top eight or nine of the popular vote for that category. That might suggest that it was not in the top tier in the two categories in which it was nominated. The Oscar nominees will of course be the five highest vote-getters. I mean, how did The Favourite end up with the same number of sound nominations as Black Panther, including one over it? What was so impressive about Green Book‘s sound that it got its only nomination at the expense of Black Panther?
Last year’s Oscar nominees for sound editing were the four films that got three MPSE nominations each, plus The Last Jedi, which somehow managed only one MPSE nomination (in the most important category: FX/Foley). The Last Jedi had a BAFTA nomination, unlike Black Panther. The only live-action film that got two nominations last year was War for the Planet of the Apes, which was not nominated by BAFTA or CAS. The Last Jedi also got CAS, so it at least hit all three.
Two years ago, the Oscar nominees were Arrival (three MPSE nominations), Deepwater Horizon (only nominated for FX/Foley), Hacksaw Ridge (three nominations), La La Land (only nominated for Musical) and Sully (only nominated for Dialogue/ADR). It is hard to reconcile these. The first four were nominated by BAFTA and Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land and Sully got CAS. The last BAFTA nominee (Fantastic Beasts) missed CAS and MPSE entirely. Rogue One had three MPSE nominations, but missed BAFTA. Doctor Strange (also a CAS nominee) and Deadpool had two nominations each, but I guess Marvel is not taken as seriously. Will Black Panther be? The Jungle Book also had two nominations.
Three years ago, the Oscar nominees were the four that got three MPSE nominations (and all got BAFTA), plus Sicario, which got two, but missed BAFTA and CAS. The last BAFTA nominee was Bridge of Spies, which got CAS and MPSE Dialogue/ADR. The last CAS nominee was The Hateful Eight, which missed BAFTA and MPSE entirely.
So it seems that if you get the MPSE trifecta and BAFTA, you are locked: First Man, Mission: Impossible, A Quiet Place. The last two BAFTA nominees were A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody, but those seem like pretty obvious mixing-only nominees, barring some La La Land debacle and you never know; that could be the norm now with all of the young new academy members. The CAS nominees were the BAFTA nominees, except swapping Mission: Impossible for Black Panther, which got two MPSE nominations anyway, so that is a solid fourth for the Oscars. The last slot could be Roma per Sicario.
I am intrigued by Ready Player One because Kris Tapley is predicting it and he sometimes has inside gossip from the sound voters. What is the precedent for a film missing BAFTA and CAS and getting the Oscar nomination with only one MPSE nomination?
The nominations four years ago were American Sniper (FX/Foley, BAFTA, CAS), Birdman (triple MPSE, BAFTA, CAS), Interstellar (double MPSE, CAS), Unbroken (double MPSE, CAS) and The Battle of the Five Armies, which just came out of nowhere, as it was entirely snubbed by MPSE, BAFTA Sound and CAS, so that just goes to show that anything can go. The previous Hobbit was nominated the year before though. BAFTA nominees The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game were snubbed by CAS and only nominated by MPSE in Dialogue/ADR. BAFTA nominee Whiplash also missed CAS, but got two MPSE nominations. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes got three MPSE nominations.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 9:52 pm #1202739170
MPSE? Those were not supposed to come out until Monday!
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 9:50 pm #1202739167
Good riddance. I love analyzing them and this makes our job less fun, but there is a greater good here, namely the environment, as well as the colossal collective waste of money. This also should level the playing field a bit by making the awards a little less dependent on marketing. I wonder what the physical screeners will look like for this last time.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 6:53 pm #1202739094
there definitely will be surprises with the nominations, there always is, and we’ll find out soon!
I am aware.
I remember the same criticisms being used for Regina King were used for Mahershala Ali in Supporting Actor a couple of years back.
Not even being nominated for SAG or BAFTA (or AACTA) and possibly not even being in a Best Picture nominee?
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 6:51 pm #1202739092
if bohemian rhapsody wins pga and sag ensemble is roma still our frontrunner
Yes, it will settle that A Star is Born and BlacKkKlansman are not actually challengers to Roma and that Bohemian Rhapsody is, which will still result in a win for Roma. Producers care about financial success more than the average academy member, hence why they nominate so many more blockbusters and awarded Gravity, as well as The Big Short over Spotlight.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 6:42 pm #1202739087
I have seen it so many times:
We don’t know which way things are going to go on Tuesday morning yet. We all have to wait and see.
Well, we’ll know on the 22nd! Sure wish it wasn’t a whole week from tomorrow! (: It could go either way and I remain uncertain!
We will all have to be patient and wait and see what happens.
It remains to be seen who they will nominate this year.
We will know soon either way.
We will know on the 22nd!
I am going to remain patient and confident that Regina King will prevail on February 22nd. Time will tell….
Time will tell…
I don’t see that happening but we will know for certain on the 22nd.
We will know next Tuesday morning!
We have until the 22nd to debate it.
Time will tell of course and if Adams wins so be it. Anything is possible and we have to be patient and wait and see.
As always time will tell… Jan. 27th will provide the answer.
Wait util Jan. 27th.
We will know for certain on the 27th if this can be true, and then Feb. 22nd for the final part of it.
I want Roma to win; we will know the answer on Feb. 24th!
We won’t know until Feb. 22nd.
Nobody is right or wrong until the winner is announced.
Nobody is right or wrong at this point.
We will know in February, so nobody is right or wrong until then!
Acknowledging my villainy:
I want to point out that everybody repeats themselves on here, everyone.
If everybody would stop personally attacking each other these forums would be a much happier place to visit. Having an opinion, reacting not to each other but to the actual awards, is always fine. I respect those who make their case for their predictions without personally attacking anyone else’s opinion, then we can have disagreements without it being about who is right or wrong, since nobody is right or wrong until the envelopes are opened (and one time not even then!)
I know that you mean well, but it is funny how I can tell when a post is yours without even seeing your name!
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."January 18, 2019 at 5:57 pm #1202739052
Shows like Sherlock and Downton Abbey were co-produced by PBS (American). My understanding is that Luther is produced by BBC Studios (British) and only aired on BBC America later, putting it on the same level as countless other international shows that were eventually aired in America. Netflix alone probably has hundreds of foreign shows available for viewing; does not mean that they can submit them as American just because they could be seen in America at some point.
Netflix slapping their “Original” branding onto a program is just a marketing thing. It does not mean that Netflix actually makes them; they just have the distribution rights in that territory. Pretty much the entire CW lineup is available exclusively in Canada (outside of picking up the American CW feed via satellite/cable) as a “Netflix Original”, which does not mean that they are “Netflix originals” with a lowercase “O”. Yet they have been submitting Bodyguard for awards, in spite of not picking it up for American distribution until five of the six episodes had aired, long after production had wrapped under British companies.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."