Forum Replies Created
April 4, 2020 at 3:07 pm #1203410049
to be devils advocate, both those series had already established themselves as Emmy favorites and were critically-praised shows at one point. Including these two past their peak shows makes an argument that Westworld, The Handmaids Tale, or Big Little Lies will stay in despite being considered pretty average, rather than a new show with little critical support (I can’t think of a first season show with reviews as bad as TMS that got into series).
Downton Abbey was admittedly not the best example, but House of Cards seemed to have even support for years. It fell out of some key places like writing, directing and editing, but this was offset by gains with the acting branch. Its second and fourth seasons each got thirteen nominations. The third season only got eleven, but it compensated by winning multiple Emmys, unlike them. Bit premature to say, but Big Little Lies and The Handmaid’s Tale went from sweeping the Emmys to where we saw them at the guilds a few months ago, which I would say was worse than where House of Cards was in middle of its run. “The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.” House of Cards‘ critical acclaim was indeed behind it though.April 4, 2020 at 2:27 pm #1203409993
Moving this to the “Polls” section because the match-up is so random that I do not want to invite a flooding of the Television forum with similar contests.April 4, 2020 at 1:56 pm #1203409944
Who feels like reading for a while? Continuing that discussion about The Morning Show, I have really come around to it as a contender in Outstanding Drama Series and actually rank it fourth now, behind only the win-capable The Crown, Ozark and Succession.
First of all, I put immense stock in its SAG performance. People have bemoaned its ensemble snub, but I do not consider that a snub. Not only has SAG infamously snubbed the debuts of the likes of Homeland and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but for a first-year show, all that you really need to do is get your foot in the door to prove yourself and The Morning Show went beyond that. The only SAG nomination that This is Us got right out of the gate was a nomination for Sterling K. Brown and he did not even win. This translated at the Emmys to seven acting nominations, including two wins, plus it was followed up at SAG with consecutive ensemble wins. The only SAG nomination that Mr. Robot got out of the gate was Rami Malek, which it again did not even win, but then he did win at the Emmys and the show got a series nomination. Even if you get nothing at SAG (even the year after), you can still win a lead Emmy and get your show into series, as Billy Porter proved with Pose. Not only did Jennifer Aniston get a nomination, but she actually won—and the show took multiple slots on the actor side, which nobody saw coming. The Morning Show was indeed rejected by the other guilds, although it was ineligible for several of them, but I am counting the acting branch as fully on board and that alone can carry a show at the Emmys, as we have seen with This is Us.
People have compared The Morning Show to Empire, but Empire has never gotten a single SAG nomination, even with its release earlier in the year and massive visibility. People have also pointed to the poor reviews for The Morning Show, but the academies have been caring less about that in recent years. We saw this at the Oscars with Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book and Vice all being huge players in the same year and we have seen it at the Emmys as House of Cards had the worst-reviewed season ever nominated for Outstanding Drama Series, then they doubled down and gave the final season of Game of Thrones a record-tying number of wins. Though The Morning Show might be as soapy as Empire, it has considerably more prestige, being the most expensive season of a show in television history and with how it dealt with topical issues in every damn episode.
But more than any of the above, I believe in The Morning Show because it is on an upward trajectory. The drama field this year is not competitive like it was a few years ago when everybody was really passionate about that quintet of five dramas that debuted together; it is competitive with shows that used to be competitive and we are now all just trying to figure out who has enough fumes left to pull off one final nomination. Whatever gets in out of Big Little Lies, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, Pose, Stranger Things, This is Us and Westworld will just be lucky to be nominated because this is probably the last time, based on their trajectories and the normal patterns of Emmy inertia.
The thing about awards trajectory and inertia is that you go up until you peak and then you go down until you are forgotten. Some shows end early enough that they peak at the end and never see a decline and of course there is an exception like Homeland every several years, but the general rule applies generally. There is talk about how Big Little Lies, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, Pose, Stranger Things, This is Us and Westworld fared at the guilds because that is where we saw them all last in terms of awards. But these are all shows that are past their peaks. Maybe Killing Eve is still peaking and maybe Westworld is in a good position to recover, but these shows are actively on the decline for the most part. They are not in the position that Downton Abbey and House of Cards were for years in the middle, chugging along with consistent support and picking up a win here or there without taking series. You could argue that The Crown and maybe even Ozark are in that position now. The pack of Big Little Lies, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, Pose, Stranger Things, This is Us and Westworld are largely shows that peaked very early and people are not nearly as excited about now.
So it is great that they were wherever they were down the hill when they checked in for the guilds, but when we check in next for the Emmys, they will have slid more. Sometimes, the calendar works out so that the Emmys drop a contender first and then the guilds follow suit and it is the reverse other times; it is rare that we do not have a simple ^ course. So at best, these shows are going to barely pick up what they did at the guilds (or would have, accounting for slots and eligibility), which was not great already. The Morning Show meanwhile is on the rise. We saw it rising even between the SAG nominations when it was snubbed for ensemble and the ceremony where it pulled off a win. Conversely, I wonder if voting had been later if Big Little Lies would have gotten nominated at all. It was clearly running out of steam with how Nicole Kidman was snubbed. The same applies to Critics’ Choice where The Morning Show was only able to get one nomination because the critics hated the early episodes, then they finished the season and liked it enough to make that nomination a win. Visibility is obviously going to be better for the Emmys, given how few people even knew what Apple TV+ was during guild voting. So I feel much better about betting on something with momentum that is growing and clearly has potential, as opposed to trying to figure out what has just enough juice left to hold on or is slipping slower than their neighbour. The Morning Show really has the opportunity here to leapfrog most of the field.April 4, 2020 at 12:46 pm #1203409847
I’d say Reid and Elliot are equally likely and if there’s enough love for the show for one to get in then both will. I don’t see how they wouldn’t be within 2% of one another.
They snubbed Grace too many times while nominating Frankie for me to continue to subscribe to this line of thinking. I still need to watch this season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel though, so I might end up finding space for both of them anyway.
Any chance you think they’ll push it as a limited series instead?
No, it is very much designed for a multi-season run, but definitely watch out for it being in drama (based on the first episode; I have five of the other nine).April 4, 2020 at 1:05 am #1203409201
I am watching The Great and it is an hour-long show to my surprise. Maybe Guest was right initially about it being a drama! If the academy can rule a teen sex comedy a drama, they can certainly rule historical fiction as such. The email that I got from Hulu even calls it a “comedic drama”! Reviews are “embargoed until a later, to-be-determined date.”April 4, 2020 at 12:40 am #1203409152
Watchmen: 22 nominations
Series, Writing, Writing, Directing, Directing, Directing, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Supporting Actress, Casting, Cinematography, Cinematography, Editing, Editing, Editing, Costumes, Music Supervision, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Stunts
Mrs. America: 18 nominations
Series, Writing, Directing, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Hair, Makeup, Production Design, Score, Sound Mixing, Titles
I Know This Much is True: 11 nominations
Series, Writing, Directing, Lead Actor, Casting, Costumes, Editing, Effects, Hair, Makeup, Sound Mixing
Unbelievable: 6 nominations
Series, Writing, Lead Actress, Lead Actress, Supporting Actress, Casting
Hollywood: 6 nominations
Series, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Casting, Sound Mixing
El Camino: 6 nominations
Movie, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Bad Education: 4 nominations
Movie, Lead Actor, Supporting Actress, Score
The Eddy: 4 nominations
Directing, Music Direction, Music Supervision, Song
Quiz: 3 nominations
Writing, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor
Little Fires Everywhere: 3 nominations
Lead Actress, Lead Actress, Costumes
Black Mirror: 3 nominations
Score, Song, Sound Editing
Togo: 2 nominations
Movie, Sound Editing
The Terror: 2 nominations
Cinematography, Sound Editing
American Son: 1 nomination
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: 1 nomination
The Loudest Voice: 1 nomination
The Plot Against America: 1 nomination
American Horror Story: 1 nomination
Amazing Stories: 1 nomination
ThemeApril 4, 2020 at 12:20 am #1203409158
I posed this question previously and the answer was that it basically happened with GLOW last year.April 3, 2020 at 11:15 pm #1203409107
Just watched Bad Education. There is no embargo, which makes sense since it is a true story and there are already plenty of reviews out there from the festival run. I am baffled by HBO spending $17.5 million on this at Toronto. As you know from the existing reviews, it is a fine movie, but there are so many movies that are merely fine that go through the festivals with big stars, then flop theatrically and are quickly forgotten. Why did HBO pay more for this than Amazon paid for The Report? This was destined just to go the way of The Front Runner, which premiered at Toronto one year earlier than this, also with Hugh Jackman in the lead role with strong notices portraying a scandalized real-life figure from recent history. Instead of Allison Janney and Ray Romano supporting, that one had Vera Farmiga and J.K. Simmons.
Again, not terrible, but unremarkable and also disappointing just because it is so easy to see the potential. The trailer suggested a playful take on the material in the vein of The Wolf of Wall Street and I, Tonya, but it turns out that they just put all of those moments in the trailer instead of going for that for the whole movie, which would have been more entertaining, memorable and maybe even nuanced. Various lines of dialogue left me with the impression that they actually underplayed the craziness of this real-life story, which you would think would be why they made this in the first place. I do not know what the point of El Camino was, but this is not going to challenge that for the Emmy win.
Hugh Jackman gives a strong performance and checks every box but one. I will refrain from going deeper since I went in without knowing anything about the story (even after watching the trailer), but I can report that the nomination that has become inevitable will be justified. Allison Janney is similarly up to the task of delivering an Allison Janney performance, but then she disappears for a very long stretch. It is hard enough to get nominated for an HBO movie these days under the best of circumstances. I have her in my predictions over Margo Martindale right now just because I already have three other supporting actresses from Mrs. America, but even with that in mind, can you really justify voting for Allison Janney doing what she does for half of a forgettable movie over Margo Martindale playing her real-life figure over nine episodes that span a decade and inspire much more sympathy? Hopefully I Know This Much is True has some knockout performance in the category and I can just choose neither Janney nor Martindale.
Ray Romano is fun as Ray Romano is, but it is a minor role. Then again, his category has a dearth of competition, so who knows? Jimmy Tatro and Annaleigh Ashford are also good comic relief in even smaller parts. Below the line, watch out for Michael Abels. The score did a great job at accentuating the tension in the first half of the movie, then became overbearing in the second half as the film got self-serious. I have had trouble rounding out that category anyway and Oscar rejects have been known to cash in their goodwill at the Emmys.April 3, 2020 at 5:15 pm #1203408783
They called it a drama in the press release announcing the show, then when they put out first-look pictures. The press release for the teaser called it a drama, but the video description called it limited. Then it was back to just a drama in the press release for the trailer.April 3, 2020 at 4:34 pm #1203408757
I think that the field is thinning out enough that Watchmen can more easily be checked off repeatedly.
Got the four remaining episodes (ninth through twelfth) of Normal People, which Hulu told Chris is limited (despite marketing as drama). Embargo is still “until further notice”. Also got Bad Education, which has no embargo noted.April 3, 2020 at 3:23 pm #1203408665
Charlie wants Elizabeth Banks to contend for the win (with Rose Byrne snubbed), so there is another take (and it could be yours).April 3, 2020 at 2:25 pm #1203408575
I do not have Bad Education, I Know This Much is True or Quiz screeners.
OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES:
1. Watchmen (HBO)
2. Mrs. America (FX)
3. I Know This Much is True (HBO)
4. Unbelievable (NET)
5. Hollywood (NET)
6. Black Mirror (NET)
7. Quiz (AMC)
8. Little Fires Everywhere (HULU)
9. The Plot Against America (HBO)
10. Defending Jacob (ATV)
1. El Camino (NET)
2. Bad Education (HBO)
3. American Son (NET)
4. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (NET)
5. Togo (DIS)
6. Troop Zero (AMZN)
7. Transparent (AMZN)
8. The Clark Sisters (LIFE)
9. Patsy & Loretta (LIFE)
10. Selah and the Spades (AMZN)
OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE:
1. Watchmen: Damon Lindelof, “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice”
2. Watchmen: Damon Lindelof & Cord Jefferson, “This Extraordinary Being”
3. Mrs. America: Dahvi Waller, “Phyllis”
4. Unbelievable: Susannah Grant & Michael Chabon & Ayelet Waldman, “Episode 1”
5. I Know This Much is True: Derek Cianfrance & Anya Epstein, “06”
6. Quiz: James Graham, “Episodes 1–3”
7. The Plot Against America: Ed Burns & David Simon, “Part 1”
8. El Camino: Vince Gilligan, “A Breaking Bad Movie”
9. Black Mirror: Charlie Brooker, “Striking Vipers”
10. The Eddy: Jack Thorne, “Elliot”
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE:
1. Watchmen: Nicole Kassell, “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice”
2. Watchmen: Stephen Williams, “This Extraordinary Being”
3. I Know This Much is True: Derek Cianfrance, “01–06”
4. Mrs. America: Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck, “Phyllis”
5. The Eddy: Damien Chazelle, “Elliot”
6. Watchmen: Frederick E.O. Toye, “See How They Fly”
7. Quiz: Stephen Frears, “Episodes 1–3”
8. Unbelievable: Lisa Cholodenko, “Episode 1”
9. El Camino: Vince Gilligan, “A Breaking Bad Movie”
10. Hollywood: Ryan Murphy, “Hooray for Hollywood”April 3, 2020 at 12:58 pm #1203408451
Spam reported.April 3, 2020 at 12:46 pm #1203408429
These should be very easy to predict after the Emmy nominations. Just take out whatever aired in 2019 (minus The Crown) and factor in The Good Lord Bird, Ratched, The Third Day and The Undoing. Netflix will still be churning out content for a while, but I am not expecting much from their summer fare, given that they did not rush it for Emmy eligibility. I imagine that This is Us will come back by the end of the year, but it is already accounted for and maybe PEN15 too, but it is not getting nominated.