Forum Replies Created
March 19, 2019 at 8:49 pm #1202822564
Have not seen the second season of Ozark myself, but I have been spoiled a little about it, so spoiler alert for it and other shows: Peter Mullan fits the mould of past nominees Ron Cephas Jones, Ben Mendelsohn, Josh Charles, Jonathan Banks, Bobby Cannavale, Jared Harris and Giancarlo Esposito if you catch my drift. Drama supporting actor is the category that has this trend.March 19, 2019 at 8:40 pm #1202822554
The FX FYC site is often wrong this early on. Their Fargo placements especially around this time are always terrible (Ewan McGregor in supporting, Alison Tolman in lead, Billy Bob Thornton and Martin Freeman in drama). Having said that, I would not go so far as to say that it is based on nothing and I appreciate that it specifies the pilot as Ryan Murphy’s submission for Pose directing, as well as that they are pushing It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia for choreography and music supervision. Only Michelle Williams and Sam Rockwell are listed for Fosse/Verdon; is this because everyone else is ineligible? Funny that they have not decided what genre Mr Inbetween is.March 19, 2019 at 2:00 am #1202821566
SAG loved Ozark this year, awarding Jason Bateman and nominating Laura Linney, Julia Garner and the ensemble. SAG only has a few nomination slots, so who might represent the “ensemble” at the Emmys after not quite being so strong a contender to get an individual SAG citation? This is Us won ensemble and Sterling K. Brown got nominated, but Milo Ventimiglia and Chrissy Metz join him at the Emmys. The Handmaid’s Tale got both Elisabeth Moss and Joseph Fiennes in at SAG, but they also get three more supporting actresses in at the Emmys. Better Call Saul got Bob Odenkirk and the ensemble this year, with Jonathan Banks sure to register at the Emmys. The Ozark equivalent will be Peter Mullan. Of course he did not get a SAG nomination because he is not a core part of the show like that, but he was a big part of the second season specifically. And he is an Emmy-nominated actor to boot who just recurred on another show that is big with the Emmys. He is flying under the radar because Ozark is not a journalists/critics show, so he missed the precursors (and it is not really a Gold Derby show as such, so the lack of awareness snowballs, but this is an industry-beloved show). Of course he did not get into the Globes’ catch-all supporting category and of course Critics’ Choice did not nominate him because they did not even nominate Jason Bateman or Laura Linney! I have him fourth.March 18, 2019 at 10:48 pm #1202821440March 18, 2019 at 10:35 pm #1202821428
Oh no, looks like I accidentally deleted Sterling K. Brown as I was updating my predictions for the category. There go my favourable odds!
I still do not have a lot of faith in Pose having the broad appeal needed to crack series, but Billy Porter seems to be the most acclaimed aspect of the show and was on the cusp of a nomination anyway, so I am thinking that the campaign can push him over the edge. And that sixth slot in supporting actress is just wide open. I had freaking Uzo Aduba before. Homecoming seems like a more straightforward sell, but hey, I only added it recently and in seventh.March 18, 2019 at 10:11 pm #1202821415
John Mulaney seems like a slam dunk and I feel strongly enough about Michael McKean for Better Call Saul, which I have to specify since he is also in contention for The Good Place and Veep. Ron Cephas Jones is the safe choice of course, as the incumbent winner. Phylicia Rashad and Jane Lynch might best fit the profile of “early frontrunner” on the actress side, but I am less confident about them.March 18, 2019 at 9:35 pm #1202821387
Love You to Death starring Marcia Gay Harden! I mentioned her above. I was actually an extra on that movie, but I did not make the final cut.March 18, 2019 at 8:30 pm #1202821323
I posted that on the last page five days ago.March 18, 2019 at 6:31 pm #1202821243
Patricia Arquette starts as co-lead with Joey King. Any negligible difference in screen time is compensated by Arquette’s dominance in dialogue and scenes are often from her perspective even if King is in them. But Arquette is decidedly supporting by the fifth episode and I expect to be even more so in the last three episodes, which have not been provided to the press. Arquette is outstanding. She would of course make a more deserving winner than Patricia Clarkson’s hammy performance in Sharp Objects as another mother with Munchausen’s syndrome by proxy, but Clarkson has the benefit of playing a fictional character. The Act made me sick to my stomach because it is a true story. Arquette is not the winking devil of Oscar bait; she is actually evil and it is gross what she does to her daughter. It is also hard to watch Chloë Sevigny start to close in on Arquette because I know that it will never work out. The show gets easier to watch as it goes on, although I am still unsure of why this is being dramatized because I worry that it is glamourizing it, even if it becomes effectively tense viewing. The climactic set piece at the end of the first episode could bag a directing nomination. This is a strong cast—not just Arquette, King and Sevigny, but also other regulars AnnaSophia Robb and American Vandal‘s Calum Worthy, plus Dean Norris guest stars, which I have not seen reported.March 18, 2019 at 6:20 pm #1202821234
I am skeptical of the quality of this one. 78 on Metacritic is glaringly low, given that whatever score it gets will certainly be inflated as a response to critics initially underrating Get Out at 84. We see this a lot on the television side. Throwing a wrench into this is the insane Twitter buzz, but I also just watched Mary Poppins Returns, which was godawful, so I have learned again not to trust them.March 18, 2019 at 5:09 pm #1202821151
I am wondering if Catastrophe can manage to get back into writing. It seems to have a much higher profile this go around than for when it got the nomination in season one and is helped by good timing (and, yes, I know it missed for season 2). Main factor against it would probably be other “high brow, auteur” comedies like Fleabag and Russian Doll getting votes from the same demographic (plus multiple contenders from Veep, Barry and Maisel taking up the majority of the spots).
If Veep, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and Barry each submit two episodes (and Barry maintains its quality), it will be too easy for all of them to be nominated, leaving no space for anything else.March 18, 2019 at 4:49 pm #1202821136
Oh isn’t winning. Season 2 will definitely be on more people’s radar after Oh’s end of the year sweep. Problem there is that brings Comer’s awareness up, and considering some (many) consider her to be even better than Oh, I can’t see vote-splitting not being a result.
Jodie Comer is not going to draw votes away from Sandra Oh like that. This is like the Sterling K. Brown winning over Milo Ventimiglia at the Emmys for the first season of This is Us. Ventimiglia had his supporters and even a better tape, but Brown had such a big lead out of the gate, going on to win the Globe, Critic’ Choice and SAG without Ventimiglia being nominated at any. Speaking of those two though, Ventimiglia has closed the gap in the last two seasons to the point where Sterling K. Brown can no longer win (and neither can Ventimiglia), solidified by growing apathy for the show in general. I agree with others that Robin Wright is not in danger of a snub. She has never missed and sheer inertia is often enough. Add to that #MeToo sympathy, so many shows skipping to miss Game of Thrones, her SAG nomination, a possible last-chance narrative and how could she possibly miss?March 18, 2019 at 8:35 am #1202820568
I do not see why Killing Eve would have been WGA-ineligible, but I see that The Playlist says that it was. Bodyguard and Downton Abbey being ineligible makes sense because they were British-set shows that were British-produced (BBC, ITV), but Killing Eve is like The Crown: British-set, but American-produced (BBC America, Netflix).
The way that I see it is that Killing Eve gets nominated if it has a good second season. I just do not think that it will. Jodie Comer is a young, pretty and foreign actress playing a flippant, soulless and comedic character. I do not see her getting into lead. I have Viola Davis because that she was randomly nominated for Scandal and that Cicely Tyson keeps getting in as, say, Laverne Cox comes in and out despite competition as weak as Kelly Jenrette, shows to me that some voters are still checking off the big names in that show—not to the extent that Davis can still make a top-five combined lead-and-supporting field at SAG, but enough to make a top-six in an exceptionally open Emmy field.
Comer is not supporting, but category fraud is a thing, especially for younger, villainous and second-billed co-leads. She can get a supporting nomination because I have no clue about the sixth slot. She cannot win over an iconic role in a sweeping final season (Lena Headey) or a breakout/scene-stealer who has actually been recognized as such by SAG over her (Julia Garner). I am confident about Rhea Seehorn in fifth because the random SAG ensemble nomination and even the random directing nomination to a lesser extent prove to me that the show is drifting around on the fringes and will make it in if the field happens to be weak enough, like for Viola Davis. It also helps that she should have been nominated years ago, so anyone who has been behind on Better Call Saul, but still considers themselves viewers of the show, must have reached her nomination-worthy material by now. Michael McKean should have won for the last season, but his finale was a hanging episode, so he required voters not only to be entirely current on the show, but also not to turn in their ballots until voting closed. It was too tall an order for a branch that is clearly behind on the show at best (and not even watching the show at worst). She is kind of like Nikolaj Coster-Waldau. He was not the first person that anyone was checking off for Game of Thrones, but the triple supporting actress nominations that one year proved that there are voters who are just checking off the performances from the show all over the place and they will get in if the field happens to have enough wiggle room. So Coster-Waldau was able to make it in last year because his category opened up—and because he should have been nominated so many years earlier that lack of name recognition was no longer an obstacle.