[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203793653

I’m sorry but are we watching the same Mank trailer? I love the aesthetics of this film but the actings look extremely bland/modern-day except for maybe Oldman. Noone actually looks win-worthy in that trailer. And I’m more than convinced now that the best supporting actress race will come down to Close vs. Colman, once again.

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[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203748804

While I don’t buy the notion that Ma Rainey’s black bottoms is going comedy musical at the globe, I’m not completely ruling it out either. Studios have submitted their *drama* films (with a pinch of comedy or musical aspects of course) to comedy musical categories to avoid competition. It has happened before. And awards fans have publicly called out HFPA for that too, but hardly anything really changed.

We see a flock of contenders in musical biopics entering the drama races recently, but in fact, it has spoken of nothing too significant. Sometimes, it worked with playing musical icons, sometimes it paid off horribly (like ASIB). But what I’m trying to say here is that, the GG despite being a very prestigious and deciding award, still is voted by a group of only 90 members. They know how important their award is, so the studios will try very hard to persuade them to do this, do that. Rumor has it that just last year, Elton John hosted a party inviting all HFPA members, or Tarantino also inviting HFPA members to … whatever it was I don’t remember to payola his film and they all paid off wonderfully! The HFPA is the ones making rules, but they can also change rules to whatever they want in favor of studios’ intention. It’s still a rather small entity afterall.

I’m not explicitly indicating that studios will easily bribe the HFPA members, but that they can sway the wind in whatever direction they think is the best for them. And right now, the comedy musical categories at the Globes are so empty that whatever film of the top 10 best pictures contenders as of this moment being relegated to comedy musical categories will rule these categories easily in a cakewalk, and studios will definitely make full use of this fact!

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203702464

Hayden wrote:

I’m 50/50 on Hillbilly Elegy being pushed back. On paper it makes sense I suppose, and it’s still pretty quiet overall (feels like it should have been at TIFF), but this is an easy year for Close to win. If she finally wants to win, this is it. If they push it back… well… Colman will win? I suppose. It’s not going to Ronan, and I’m feeling Seyfried is going to be a shoe-in nom but a 0% chance to win (if that makes sense), Burstyn isn’t confirmed yet, Claire Foy’s also up in the air, The French Dispatch actresses are all going to cancel each other out, based on the trailer I don’t feel Zendaya has a true chance for Dune, Davis is almost certainly going lead… and that’s pretty much it. It just feels like such an easy year for Close to win, it’d be a shame if she skipped over it.

Me too. Close seems to be winning so easily this year, yet it’s seeming to be hard for her. It’s even more baffling that Hillbilly Elegy is their early contender and one of their biggest invests too ($45 millions for a lowkey drama!!). I don’t know what’s up with these Netflix execs to already have pretty strong contenders only to buy more movies, or what’s their next move… This whole thing just doesn’t make sense!

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203702395

wolfali wrote:

Lol at this rate they should just skip Hillbilly Elegy just out of fear in case Olivia Colman surprises again.

Olivia Colman won’t be the reason why the film will be pushed

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203702374

Listen, I’m one of the biggest Close stans here but I have a feeling Miss Close won’t be this season’s contender. Netflix already got their plate so full this year, and all of their other contenders have reasons to be released this year, like Ma Rainey (Chadwick Boseman’s recent death), Pieces of a woman (to keep the buzz of Kirby’s Volpi cup) and Chicago 7 (BLM movement). Mank is their biggest card and will most likely be released this year too. So that leaves Hillbilly Elegy. If they keep Hillbilly this year, that means Miss Close will be a lone nominee for that film, and they will have to throw away everything else down the waste in favor of their other contenders, which means they will have to throw away their $45 million invest. Will they do it???

Not to mention, everything about this movie has been a mystery so far, not a single release date, poster, teaser etc. And surely this movie won’t be as timely as their other contenders. I have a feeling this movie will be pushed back to next Oscar season! But it would still be a very major shock because Close is still very hot and on top of many lists now. Netflix will have a very hard time arranging their plates, and they should blame noone but themselves for their greediness!

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203588665

estrelas wrote:

How Is this possible?! I’m not trying to diminish the veracity of this statement but this just doesn’t make any sense to me. Hillbilly Elegy is a memoir and in the book Glenn has a much prominent role than Amy, how is it possible for her to have a bigger screentime than Close?!

Apparently they changed the source material to make Amy’s character more prominent. And based on the source material, how come every pundit puts Glenn in supporting and Amy in lead already while it’s the reverse in the book and as of now, nothing of this movie has been revealed? I guess a test screening did happen.

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203588529

Test screening from an unverified source on awardworthy forum revealed Amy’s screen time is at 55-60% while Glenn’s is at 35-40%, which explains every pundit suddenly goes with this placement. Also Glenn is supposed to have a flashy role while Amy is more restrained. Glenn is more than enough winning this time while Amy needs to be Netflix’s priority to win if and only if Ma Rainey’s black bottoms flops

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203554414

I have been saying this for months but again, I have a feeling Glenn Close will be submitted to lead actress. Her role is very baity in the book, much more prominent than Amy’s typical cliche alcoholic abusive mother, and is the driving force that causes JD Vance to change his life. She can be THE LEAD”. And let’s be fair, why would Netflix risk putting the two most overdue ladies in the same categories, while they can literally make both of them happen?? Also, Close has been a leading lady all her career and she should win as such, while same as Amy as she is always either a coattailer or the true supporting actress. Unless they twist the story (which is fine as long as they remove all the political tones but it’s ridiculous to change JD Vance’s life story!), I don’t see why so many pundits are still predicting Amy in lead!

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203538357

Lindo and Close are locked for supporting actor and actress!

[TheDreamingHead]

#1203334226

And not to mention, Parasite has accomplished much more than ROMA last year in terms of guilds awards:

Parasite: WGA, SAG, Editing Guild and Production Design Guild (nominated at PGA and DGA)

ROMA: DGA (nominated at PGA, WGA, Editing Guild, Production Design Guild; snubbed at SAG)

Despite what the anonymous ballots indicated, it’s fair to say ROMA lost last year for a lack of support from various guilds to overcome its foreign language obstacle (Green book also only won PGA but the race is always between ROMA and Green book regardless, which it had the edge because it was a feel good English language film).

And it’s fair it say Parasite is in a better position to win BP than ROMA based on its having swept a fair share amount of Guilds Awards, AND those anonymous ballots.

That being said, I will still predict 1917 for BP!

• This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by TheDreamingHead.
• This reply was modified 8 months, 3 weeks ago by TheDreamingHead.

[TheDreamingHead]

#1203275326

Rarely do I ever post on this forum anymore nowadays, but I just wanna say that the editing of the “framing the old housemaid with tuberculosis” sequence of Parasite outshines the whole Irishman movie’s editing!

• This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by TheDreamingHead.
• This reply was modified 9 months, 3 weeks ago by TheDreamingHead.

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[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203235842

Bee wrote:

BOSTON ONLINE CRITICS TOP 10 FILMS OF 2019 1. PARASITE 2. UNCUT GEMS 3. THE IRISHMAN 4. ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD 5. MARRIAGE STORY 6. LITTLE WOMEN 7. PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE 8. FORD V FERRARI 9. THE FAREWELL 10. US Director: Bong Joon-ho, PARASITE Parasite Actor: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, Us Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Supporting Actress: Florence Pugh, Little Women BEST SCREENPLAY Quentin Tarantino, ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD BEST ENSEMBLE LITTLE WOMEN BEST SCORE Daniel Lopatin, UNCUT GEMS BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Robert Richardson, ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD BEST EDITING Thelma Schoonmaker, THE IRISHMAN BEST DOCUMENTARY APOLLO 11 BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM PARASITE BEST ANIMATED FILM TOY STORY 4

really spot on winners, except for Trashdam Trashler

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[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203235445

I will stand corrected that Close may be lead in both movies until I see at least one credible source saying otherwise. Four good days is the one I’m more confused though since both Mila and Glenn would have aprox the same screentime. Hillbilly Elegy, I’m more than convinced that they will milk the heck out of Close’s ability to portray an extremely complex character (the partiarch, smart, conscious but trashy, drug addicts) and her character seems to be more assossiated with the main character (whereas Amy only appears in the first act according to the book).

 

But her best bet right out is supporting since the best actress next year is already so crowded now!

[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203235423

Bee wrote:

Online Association of Female Film Critics Nominations. Best Film Jojo Rabbit Marriage Story Once Upon A Time in Hollywood Parasite The Farewell Best Director Alma Har’el Honey Boy Bong Joon-Ho Parasite Martin Scorsese The Irishman Quentin Tarantino Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Lulu Wang The Farewell Best Male Lead Leonardo DiCaprio Once Upon A Time In Hollywood Adam Driver Marriage Story Taron Egerton Rocketman Joaquin Phoenix Joker Adam Sandler Uncut Gems Best Female Lead Awkwafina The Farewell Jessie Buckley Wild Rose Scarlett Johansson Marriage Story Lupita Nyong’o Us Renée Zellweger Judy Best Supporting Male Sterling K. Brown Waves Willem Dafoe The Lighthouse Shia LaBeouf Honey Boy Joe Pesci The Irishman Brad Pitt Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Best Supporting Female Ana De Armas Knives Out Laura Dern Marriage Story Jennifer Lopez Hustlers Margot Robbie Bombshell Zhao Shuzhen The Farewell Best Acting Ensemble Knives Out Little Women Once Upon A Time In Hollywood Parasite The Irishman Best Original Screenplay Noah Baumbach Marriage Story Rian Johnson Knives Out Bong Joon-ho, Han Jin-won Parasite Quentin Tarantino Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Lulu Wang The Farewell Best Adapted Screenplay Greta Gerwig Little Women Anthony McCarten The Two Popes Lorene Scafaria Hustlers Taika Waititi Jojo Rabbit Steven Zaillian The Irishman Best Documentary American Factory Apollo 11 Hail Satan Maiden One Child Nation Best Animated Feature Frozen II How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World I Lost My Body Missing Link Toy Story 4 Best Cinematography Jarin Blaschke The Lighthouse Roger Deakins 1917 Claire Mathon Portrait of a Lady on Fire Robert Richardson Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Hoyte Van Hoytema Ad Astra Breakthrough Filmmaker Alma Har’el Honey Boy Melina Matsoukas Queen & Slim Joe Talbot The Last Black Man in San Francisco Lulu Wang The Farewell Olivia Wilde Booksmart Breakthrough Performance Roman Griffin Davis Jojo Rabbit Zack Gottsagen The Peanut Butter Falcon Kelvin Harrison Jr. Waves Noah Jupe Honey Boy Florence Pugh Midsommar The Rosie This OAFFC-specific award “celebrates the film that best promotes women, their voices, and the female experience through cinema.” Booksmart Hustlers Little Women Portrait of a Lady on Fire The Nightingale

Female critics assossiation embraced Lulu Wang’s film in every category but not Greta Gerwig’s? More bad signs for Little Women!

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[TheDreamingHead Joined: Jan 8th, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 650 View Predictions]

#1203234791

Jays wrote:

No she’s not. I’ve read the article the movie is based on and Kunis is definitely the lead. Close is the supporting mother who’s daughter has been addicted to drugs most of her adult life.

I think Close can be considered a lead in both movies. Four good days looks like a two women show and the film can be adapted differently from the article and Close can campaign in lead a la Mary Tyler Moore. As in Hillbilly Elegy, she plays the second main character and the baitiest role in the movie yet. Also they can campaign her in lead to avoid splitting with Amy.