TheRedBoy
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July 8, 2019 at 1:51 pm #1202966506
I don’t think “Never Really Over” is happening. The momentum is not there. After Billie, Ariana, and Gaga, the category will likely be rounded out by Shawn Mendes, Taylor Swift, or Lewis Capaldi if “Someone You Loved” becomes bigger in the next few months, or Kelly Clarkson or P!nk will get another name-check nom.
This sounds about right, unless Lizzo or Khalid submit something to the category.
Sam Smith will have his lead single out in time for submission, too. If it performs like Dancing With A Stranger, he’s a strong contender for a slot.
June 23, 2019 at 12:49 pm #1202948840What are the rap songs / albums most likely to show up in the general field?
I’m totally clueless on what’s popular, what’s acclaimed, and who the industry will actually support in a year sans Kendrick and Drake. Lmao
ReplyJune 13, 2019 at 6:44 pm #1202936769Dirty Computer was submitted to urban contemporary. Where was it supposed to go?
I thought it was submitted to R&B rather than UC. My bad!
June 13, 2019 at 6:42 pm #1202936765Yeah, I’m not really expecting Taylor to win over Ariana and Billie this year. I’d still like her to get some noms, though.
I’m guessing she’ll probably have a third single out around the release date, too. “You Need to Calm Down” could be her Pop Solo submission, but the song’s under 3 minutes and I don’t think the Grammys really recognize such short material too often? Having a hit single during the submission and voting phases could work out well for her.
I think an advantage of Taylor’s release schedule is that once we hear the entire album, fans can try to encourage her to release the best song(s) as singles during the next eligibility cycle to try to land some song nods / wins.
ReplyJune 13, 2019 at 2:47 pm #1202936519Lizzo and Khalid will need to be careful with their genre placements. We don’t want a repeat of A Seat At the Table, Dirty Computer, and Black Panther not getting nominated because they went to the wrong place.
June 13, 2019 at 7:26 am #1202935895I know this comment will get hate but I think she needs to do a Rihanna/lady Gaga move and leave music alone to focus on other projects. She has cats the movie coming up so that’s a start. Reputation and Me! didn’t do great at all when we consider who Taylor is and her standards. And I think if she chooses to dominate other fields it’ll stop the flop narrative Vs putting out an album that does even less than reputation which isn’t good at all.
I disagree emphatically. Her only real issue is the struggle to fully adapt to the streaming era, which is by and large a result of (1) her pulling her catalog from streaming services during her peak era and (2) the fact that her style of pop music isn’t really “in” right now. (There’s also some quality control issues with her recent singles selections, excluding Delicate).
I agree with Skies that focusing on her music, experimenting with her craft, and eschewing trends and chart-chasing to make truly great (pop) music would do a lot more good for her than some stupid cash-grab celebrity branding shit. It would probably also benefit her to write more for other artists. “Better Man” and “This Is What You Came For” were both huge hits that people really liked. Letting more artists record songs penned by her would do infinitely more for her career than a clothing line would. She doesn’t even necessarily have to put much effort into it; she could just email Selena Gomez a 1989 leftover and watch it get 600 million spotify streams.
I don’t even really think “dominate other fields” is much of a possibility for her. I’m afraid she’d more likely flop like Katy’s shoes than smash like Rihanna’s makeup. And trying to seriously pursue acting would likely just result in more panning.
And Blanche is correct, too. Taylor’s touring numbers blow just about everyone else out of the water, and it would be an absolute waste for her to give that up. And most of the people who go to those sold out stadium shows want to hear the new music being performed, not half a setlist of catalog material.
ReplyJune 13, 2019 at 5:00 am #1202935633As of now, there are only 10 artists that goldderby has at better than 100/1 odds for an AOTY nom, and most of them are hella unrecognized by the Grammys.
Billie Eilish: 0 nods
Lizzo: 0 nods
Tyler the Creator: 0/2
Khalid: 0/5
Solange: 1/1
Vampire Weekend: 1/2
Anderson Paak: 1/3
Ariana Grande: 1/6+ darlings Gaga and Beyoncé
It feels weird to predict so many acts with little Grammy history contending for AOTY… but I guess it’s not too different from the most recent lineup, which featured 4 acts who had 0-2 nods prior to that ceremony.
Country is the second most prevalent genre among AOTY nominees in the 2010s, but I guess we could have a lineup without a country/Americana album if there isn’t a definitive choice. I’d say Maren Morris just because she’s gotten a lot of noms in very few years, but I don’t think GIRL really fits the mold.
June 13, 2019 at 4:35 am #1202935579I expected the “British balladeer” thing to pan out for Calum Scott last year, and it didn’t so I wouldn’t be too confident in Capaldi at this point.
June 11, 2019 at 11:29 am #1202933036I couldn’t find the log-in button on my iphone. I managed to locate it when using my ipad, but it’s not in the same place on my phone.
Also noticed that a bunch of the coding used to embed links is messed up in the articles on the main page.
ReplyJune 10, 2019 at 5:04 pm #1202932033It’s entirely possible the Jonas Brothers make the AOTY shortlist, but I think most voters will think that nominating Sucker for Song / Record is enough, unless they score another hit to keep up the momentum.
June 10, 2019 at 12:32 pm #1202931533why would If I can’t have you be in contention for a ROTY win when there are so many more songs that could overtake it. Without me is more plausible of a win then ICHY.
The shortlists for the Big Three tend to skew in favor of pop. The Blessed Unrest, In My Blood, We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together, Issues, The A Team, etc all made the general field despite not being top 5 in the pop categories.
It’s entirely possible that pop hits like If I Can’t Have You will make the shortlists for Record or Song, and then who knows what may happen.
Personally, I don’t see Shawn making it past the shortlist with this one (assuming he makes it there at all). IICHY doesn’t have the gravitas to merit a spot imo. It feels too generic love song to merit a Record / Song nom; it doesn’t have an “important message,” doesn’t herald a major comeback or breakthrough, doesn’t exemplify artistic growth or exploration, isn’t an undeniably massive success. Those are the sorts of things that typically end up in the general field. IICHY might make the shortlist, but it would just be filler there.
June 6, 2019 at 10:31 pm #1202926714Yeah, Jo Bros are definitely getting that Pop Album nod.
I kinda think a slot might go to Barbra Streisand, too? I don’t think Walls qualifies for Traditional Pop Album, and it got good reviews, “first original material in ages” hype, and it had relevant sociopolitical themes.
June 3, 2019 at 8:21 pm #1202922496Can Lizzo submit “Truth Hurts”?
It was released digitally in September 2017, but didn’t chart or get radio adds until this year.
It would suck if her biggest hit (to date) can’t be submitted.
ReplyJune 3, 2019 at 5:00 pm #1202922358if I asked you to tell me 8 nominees to SOTY and ROTY who would you tell me?
ROTY
Lil Nas X – Old Town Road
Ariana Grande – Thank You Next
Post Malone – Sunflower
Billie Eilish – Bad Guy
Gary Clark Jr – This Land
Halsey – Nightmare
Khalid – Talk
Jonas Brothers – SuckerSOTY
Lil Nas X – Old Town Road
Ariana Grande – Thank You Next
Post Malone – Sunflower
Billie Eilish – Bad Guy
Lady Gaga – Always Remember Us This Way
Gary Clark Jr – This Land
Khalid – Talk
Halsey – NightmareI’m too light on rap songs, but I don’t really know which have the right combination of acclaim and success.
I’d love to see Lizzo in both fields, but right now I think she’s getting the Kacey / Janelle treatment with AOTY only.
I hope Taylor’s next single is as good as her second singles usually are; she could easily snag a spot if the material is right.
ReplyJune 3, 2019 at 4:02 pm #1202922287Doubt it. The VMAs are not as relevant as they used to be.
I know, but there’s still a bit of an overlap. 8 of the 9 most recent Grammy Music Video winners were nominated for VOTY by MTV (the sole exception being Timberlake, who won both awards with different videos).
A big showing at the VMAs could give Grande or Swift a bit of a push to help ensure a Grammy nomination for their video (Swift will need it more than Grande).
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