[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204700669

kaziz wrote:

The main incorrect assumption I’ll get rid off here off that bat is the idea that a “tiny” % of people like indie character dramas. Obviously not. The other incorrect assumption is that for a film to win it must avoid being ranked low entirely (it must avoid being ranked low the least, or amongst the least).

No I am absolutely not saying it will have enough #1s to win on the first round (I would never claim that). I am literally claiming: it is more likely to put consistently higher by a much larger pool of people (which is ALREADY a non-tiny number given the preferential ballot wins of Moonlight, Nomadland, Spotlight etc) because a paucity of films like it means that those films’ target audience have just one or two or three options and will put it higher. People who dislike it will rate it low, that happens and I’m pretttttty sure it happened to Nomadland PLENTY. But on one hand you have a large segment of people for whom it’s among the top (because of a paucity of other similar choices) and meanwhile, the more similar films will splinter higher ranks. Honestly this is not that hard, and you actually only have to play one or two rounds to know my point stands……UNLESS:

You argue that the films NOT getting in do not have similar audiences and thus those voters may have no proclivity for TPOTD. You’ll find examples of such people here (Freeman, e.g.) But by and large it seems most of us like The Lost Daughter, Passing, Mass along with TPOTD and similar films.

I never said any particular film or type of film would get a tiny percent of the vote, simply that the point of the preferential ballot is that it stops this being a possibility at all.

I really do think you have a misunderstanding on how the preferential ballot works. ‘Average placement’ or ‘points per place’ irrelevant. The only thing that matters on each ballot is what is the highest ranked film on the ballot that is still in contention (hasn’t been eliminated). So there is no danger of ‘splitting the higher ranks’ if the films above if are getting going to get eliminated (which all except one will be).

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204700201

kaziz wrote:

I made an argument that an absence of similar films to TPOTD would likely benefit TPOTD on the preferential ballot.

It makes absolute sense, and yes we do know how the preferential ballot works, thanks though. If I had a ballot with Passing/The Lost Daughter/TPOTD/Drive My Car/Mass/C’mon C’mon ALL on it, TPOTD may well be #4 or #5! But if TPOTD is the only film on the ballot, yes obviously I will rank it highly, because of a paucity of choices I prefer. People have the weirdest counter-arguments to this: “derp derp, people will put it at the bottom because it’s Netflix”. Uh….okay, sure. It won’t be the only Netflix nominee, that’s for sure.

The preferential ballot benefits the films that support has been splintered, the opposite of what you are saying.

Look at two examples of potential voting:
1. Power of the Dog (40%)
2. Feel Good Film A (25%)
3. Feel Good Film B (20%)
4. Feel Good Film C (10%)
5. Feel Good Film D (5%)

Under non-preferential voting PotD wins. Under preferential voting Film D is eliminated and votes transferred (as they like a feel good film in the first round probably to another feel good film) Then Film C is eliminated, then whatever film is in third until it’s Power of the Dog Vs the strongest Feel Good Film in a final round where the strongest candidate has consolidated the ‘Feel Good Vote’.

You’re basically saying the Power of the Dog has an advantage because there’s nothing similar and it’ll gather more Number 1 votes in the first round, but the exact same factor makes it harder for it to gather preferences in the later rounds. So it isn’t an advantage or disadvantage (which is exactly the point of the preferential ballot to stop something winning with a tiny % of the vote in a divided field).

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204671353

This season is setting up to a classic switch at PGA (like Boyhood to Birdman and The Social Network to The King’s Speech).

The Power of the Dog (unless the score improves over time) would be the lowest rated film on IMBD to win Best Picture since Tom Jones in 1963. I strongly doubt it’s ability to win with large industry voting bodies especially those using the preferential ballot.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204218432

I did watch Shithouse after the nomination phase, I’d never heard of it and it looked right up my street, and it was! So thank you for that discovery.

I always enjoy reading these. Refreshing to see some different contenders at this stage of the season.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204196538

1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. The Father
4. Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Mank 
6. Nomadland
7. Minari
8. Sound of Metal

All good films to me, don’t regret the time watching any of them and likely to revisit all at some point in the future.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204189477

Casting is voted on by the general membership in the final stage of voting.

It is this year, last year it was decided by a jury.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204180344

Riley Chow wrote:

Why editing when they love most-cuts at BAFTA? Are you thinking that that metric will not apply since none of them has that many in general, relative to other years?

Pretty much, any of the winners (and many losers) of this category would be strong frontrunners in this field.

Trial may be the most showy; intercut sequences and moving about the timeline (SAG stunts!), but it’s still a court room drama. Bafta responses when the cuts gets turned up to 11, this is still at 7. I thought Sound of Metal would be more Whiplash before watching but it’s more of a character study. Nomadland and PYW both did the editing job effectively, without drawing attention to itself.

So in the end I think The Father is an easy tick off here, is the editing more showy? No, but is it brought front and centre in the mind by the nature of the film and I have less confidence than you in people differentiating between editing and structure.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204179962

I think The Father will probably win Screenplay and Editing at Bafta but Production Design seems a bridge too far.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204156410

I’m still on 100% but I did predict Chicago so that’s more likely to not continue to the end.

Netflix is having a good night though.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204155755

Novic wrote:

Does anyone know what time PGA starts?

It’s 5-6:30pm PT (just over 4 hours)

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204155735

wolfali wrote:

The King’s Speech won over The Social Network at BAFTA whilst Fincher won Best Director. No Country for Old Men lost to Atonement even though the Coens won Best Director.

This was in a(n another) different era of Bafta voting when each chapter choose the winner so the Directors chapter choose the Directing winner.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204155729

Bafta has tended to just follow the lead of the Globes in recent years. However at least part of that will have been to do with the timing of voting, Bafta winner voting always opened the Tuesday after the Globes in previous years. This year however Bafta winners voting doesn’t even open until tomorrow so I would expect a little more variance between the two in future with a much larger gap.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204136875

crabbie wrote:

Minari is an even bigger crowd pleaser.

The forum consensus is certainly Minari is the better film.

But better film ≠ crowdpleaser

Minari is understated if anything, it exists and lets you enter their family without hysterics or overblown moments. It’s realism is it’s strength but not at SAG.

Moonlight is the consensus better film, Hidden Figures is the crowd pleaser. 12 Years a Slave is the consensus better film, American Hustle is the crowd pleaser. That’s how SAG works.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204136832

Trial is going to win SAG because it’s a traditional crowd pleaser, it’s as straight forward as that.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 59 View Predictions]

#1204124201

AOTY and PVA to Folklore.
ROTY and Pop Solo to Dua.
SOTY tossup