[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203723513

So they likely finished first and second in Lead Actor and Directing, there is an excess of Succession support.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203722962

The clue was Tim Blake Nelson, they weren’t going to reward the white actors for this particular story.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203722862

She wouldn’t have had my vote but Uzo is damn likeable.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203722241

Since we’ve moved to the popular vote system shows winning for the first time have come very close to winning all the categories they’ve been eligible for. It was a matter of time before there was a sweep like this.

My predictions are 9/9; it gets trickier from here.

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203718198

BEST ANIMATED PROGRAM
BoJack Horseman

BEST CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
We Are the Dream: The Kids of the Oakland MLK Oratorical Fest

BEST COMMERCIAL
“Back-to-School Essentials” – Sandy Hook Promise

BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES
The Last Dance

EXCEPTIONAL MERIT IN DOCUMENTARY FILMMAKING
The Cave

BEST TELEVISION MOVIE
Bad Education

BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM
Cheer

BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)
Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones

BEST CASTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES MOVIE OR SPECIAL
Watchmen

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY FOR VARIETY OR REALITY PROGRAMMING
So You Think You Can Dance – Travis Wall

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “It’s Comedy or Cabbage”

BEST CONTEMPORARY COSTUMES
Unorthodox

BEST CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP (NON-PROSTHETIC)
Euphoria

BEST DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
The 73rd Annual Tony Awards

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
Eddie Murphy – Saturday Night Live

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
Maya Rudolph – Saturday Night Live

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
James Cromwell – Succession

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Alexis Bledel – The Handmaid’s Tale

BEST REALITY HOST
RuPaul – RuPaul’s Drag Race

BEST INTERACTIVE EXTENSION OF A LINEAR PROGRAM
Stranger Things: Scoops Ahoy: Operation Scoop Snoop

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/LIGHTING DIRECTION FOR A VARIETY SERIES
Saturday Night Live

BEST MAIN TITLE DESIGN
The Morning Show

BEST MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A SERIES (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
The Mandalorian – Ludwig Göransson

BEST PERIOD AND/OR CHARACTER HAIRSTYLING
The Crown – “Cri De Coeur”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PERIOD OR FANTASY PROGRAM (ONE HOUR OR MORE)
Watchmen

BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Schitt’s Creek – “Happy Ending”

BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL
Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”

BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “A Jewish Girl Walks Into the Apollo…”

BEST STUNT COORDINATION FOR A DRAMA SERIES, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
The Mandalorian

BEST WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203713760

BEST DERIVATIVE INTERACTIVE PROGRAM
Doctor Who: The Runaway

BEST ORIGINAL INTERACTIVE PROGRAM
The Messy Truth VR Experience

BEST SHORT FORM ANIMATED PROGRAM
Robot Chicken

BEST SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
The Good Place Presents: The Selection

BEST ACTOR IN A SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
Laurence Fishburne – #FreeRayshawn

BEST ACTRESS IN A SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
Jasmine Cephas Jones – #FreeRayshawn

BEST CASTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Schitt’s Creek

BEST CASTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Succession

BEST CHARACTER VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE
Taika Waititi – The Mandalorian

BEST MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
Watchmen

BEST MUSIC SUPERVISION
Watchmen

BEST ORIGINAL MAIN TITLE THEME MUSIC
Hollywood

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC AND LYRICS
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver – “Eat Shit, Bob”

BEST STUNT COORDINATION FOR A COMEDY OR VARIETY PROGRAM
Shameless

Reply

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203711225

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A MULTI-CAMERA SERIES
The Ranch – “It Ain’t My Fault”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES (HALF-HOUR)
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 7: The Reckoning”

BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING
black-ish

BEST FANTASY/SCI-FI COSTUMES
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 3: The Sin”

BEST MULTI-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
One Day at a Time – “Boundaries”

BEST PERIOD COSTUMES
The Crown – “Cri de Coeur”

BEST PERIOD MAKEUP AND/OR CHARACTER MAKEUP (NON-PROSTHETIC)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “It’s Comedy or Cabbage”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE CONTEMPORARY PROGRAM (ONE HOUR OR MORE)
The Morning Show – “In the Dark Night of the Soul It’s Always 3:30 in the Morning”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PROGRAM (HALF-HOUR)
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 1: The Mandalorian”

BEST PROSTHETIC MAKEUP FOR A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL
Star Trek: Picard – “Absolute Candor”

BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Ozark – “Fire Pink”

BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Watchmen – “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice”

BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
Stranger Things – “Chapter Eight: The Battle of Starcourt”

BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR) AND ANIMATION
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 1: The Mandalorian”

BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR) AND ANIMATION
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 2: The Child”

BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 2: The Child”

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Devs – “Episode 8”

Reply

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203711124

I’ve gambled on ‘special events’, Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, other awards Reality TV, Eurovision and politics for quite a few years now. (one of my first big wins was Ang Lee winning Best Director for Life of Pi) Now I’ve become a victim of my own success so on most major sites I’m limited to tiny stakes. (Being in the UK still does give me a range of option though.)

When I started I was looking to bet after events when bookies hadn’t adjusted their odds enough for correlated events. Chiwetel Ejiofor was still favourite for Best Actor after being beaten by Matthew McConaughey at both the Globes and Critics Choice, this year Jojo Rabbit was still available at 9/2 after it’s WGA win.

I don’t mind betting on a prohibitive favourite, if like others have pointed out they are a dead cert as Watchmen is this year. The rule for betting is look for value not just the favourite. But there’s much more likely to be value in a 9/1 bet than a 1/9. I strongly believe Succession is going to win this year but the value isn’t there to bet on it.

I think over time you get better at identifying when a favourite is 70% and when it’s 98% that’s important to gambling whereas I don’t think it does get much easier to call the coin flip races.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203708907

BEST SHORT FORM VARIETY SERIES
Carpool Karaoke: The Series

BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
A Black Lady Sketch Show

BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)
Live in Front of a Studio Audience: ‘All in the Family’ and ‘Good Times’

BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION, OR REALITY PROGRAM
RuPaul’s Drag Race

BEST CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION OR REALITY PROGRAM (NON-PROSTHETIC)
RuPaul’s Drag Race

BEST COSTUMES FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION, OR REALITY PROGRAM
The Masked Singer

BEST DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
Saturday Night Live

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/LIGHTING DIRECTION FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez and Shakira

BEST MUSIC DIRECTION
Let’s Go Crazy: The Grammy Salute to Prince

BEST PICTURE EDITING FOR VARIETY PROGRAMMING
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver – “Eat Sh!t, Bob!”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A VARIETY, REALITY OR COMPETITION SERIES
Saturday Night Live

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
The Little Mermaid Live!

BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A VARIETY SERIES OR SPECIAL
The 62nd Grammy Awards

BEST TECHNICAL DIRECTION, CAMERAWORK, VIDEO CONTROL FOR A SERIES
Saturday Night Live

BEST TECHNICAL DIRECTION, CAMERAWORK, VIDEO CONTROL FOR A SPECIAL
Live in Front of a Studio Audience: “All in the Family” and “Good Times”

BEST WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Reply

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203706863

Awardsfan1990 wrote:

Well, Tiger King walked away with zero Emmys tonight. Looks like Emmy voters may have respected it, but didn’t actually love it. I doubt it will win top honors.

I think it’s probably the opposite, they loved watching but didn’t respect it. Fast food TV, palatable to everyone but no nutritional value and definitely not winning culinary awards.

Reply

[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203342936

What does second place even mean with the preferential ballot? Second in number one votes? The other film to make the final two? The film that would have won if Parasite hadn’t existed?

These three options could well have been three different films.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203341972

December Films get a boost when they first come out. In past years this has effected Oscar nominations. The Revenant, La La Land, The Shape of Water and Roma basically got every nomination they could.

The condensed season meant more awards fell in this period. After Globes, PGA came very quickly, DGA is very correlated to this. Only Oscar voters had a bit of a gap to reflect on what they wanted to reward without still being in the ‘just seen it’ bubble for 1917.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203335114

The question is what margin did Crash win by? And would the voters of Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck and Munich have preferred Brokeback Mountain over Crash by enough of a margin to overturn the result.

Gut feeling, it was very close and those voters probably would have gone more to Brokeback Mountain than Crash. So I think there is a decent chance the answer is no.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203332963

Ranked Predictions:
Live Action:
1. Nefta Football Club
2. The Neighbors’ Window
3. Saria
4. Brotherhood
5. A Sister

Would be a little surprised if the winner isn’t out of the first two. A Sister is something those of us who watch to shorts have seen before, it isn’t the most effective version of it and they usually lose. Brotherhood is fine, I don’t know who is motivated to vote for it though. Saria has a call to arms kind of message but is tonally uneven. The Neighbor’s Window has the advantage of English and it’s a good short, a nice mix of new ideas and emotions. I do think the ending was lacking something more. I think Nefta wins as a story with beginning, middle and an unforeseen ending (which they love). Child actors help. It’s funny without being out-and-out comedy. It does remind me a lot of Sing which won in 2016.

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[Sagand Joined: Jan 13th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 450 View Predictions]

#1203323676

By voting preferences that’s what we mean voting the film you most want to win first and the film you least want to win last. If the front runner is the film you least want to see win, it’s the rational choice to put it last. (So you’re achieving both aims of helping your favourite and never helping your least favourite.)

What factors go into deciding that order is completely up to the individual, but once you have there is no better way to vote than:

1. Film you most want to win
2. Film you most want to win if #1 is eliminated
3. Film you most want to win if #1 & #2 are eliminated
4. Film you most want to win if #1, #2 & #3 are eliminated
ect.

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