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Oscars Nominations 2021

Predictions

Best Picture

  • Nomadland 7/1
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 15/2
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 17/2

Best Director

  • Chloe Zhao 7/2
  • David Fincher 9/2
  • Aaron Sorkin 13/2

Best Actress

  • Viola Davis 19/5
  • Frances McDormand 4/1
  • Vanessa Kirby 9/2

Best Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman 17/5
  • Anthony Hopkins 4/1
  • Riz Ahmed 5/1

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amanda Seyfried 39/10
  • Olivia Colman 4/1
  • Ellen Burstyn 5/1

Best Supporting Actor

  • Leslie Odom, Jr. 19/5
  • Sacha Baron Cohen 9/2
  • Daniel Kaluuya 11/2

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Nomadland 71/20
  • One Night in Miami 4/1
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 9/2

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 18/5
  • Mank 5/1
  • Minari 5/1

Grammy Nominations 2021

Predictions

Record of the Year

  • Blinding Lights 4/1
  • Don't Start Now 13/2
  • Circles 15/2
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Sagand

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    Sagand
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    September 20, 2020 at 7:45 pm #1203723513

    So they likely finished first and second in Lead Actor and Directing, there is an excess of Succession support.

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    Sagand
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    September 20, 2020 at 7:03 pm #1203722962

    The clue was Tim Blake Nelson, they weren’t going to reward the white actors for this particular story.

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    Sagand
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    September 20, 2020 at 6:55 pm #1203722862

    She wouldn’t have had my vote but Uzo is damn likeable.

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    Sagand
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    September 20, 2020 at 6:16 pm #1203722241

    Since we’ve moved to the popular vote system shows winning for the first time have come very close to winning all the categories they’ve been eligible for. It was a matter of time before there was a sweep like this.

    My predictions are 9/9; it gets trickier from here.

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    Sagand
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    September 19, 2020 at 3:52 pm #1203718198

    BEST ANIMATED PROGRAM
    BoJack Horseman

    BEST CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
    We Are the Dream: The Kids of the Oakland MLK Oratorical Fest

    BEST COMMERCIAL
    “Back-to-School Essentials” – Sandy Hook Promise

    BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES
    The Last Dance

    EXCEPTIONAL MERIT IN DOCUMENTARY FILMMAKING
    The Cave

    BEST TELEVISION MOVIE
    Bad Education

    BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM
    Cheer

    BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)
    Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones

    BEST CASTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES MOVIE OR SPECIAL
    Watchmen

    BEST CHOREOGRAPHY FOR VARIETY OR REALITY PROGRAMMING
    So You Think You Can Dance – Travis Wall

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “It’s Comedy or Cabbage”

    BEST CONTEMPORARY COSTUMES
    Unorthodox

    BEST CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP (NON-PROSTHETIC)
    Euphoria

    BEST DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
    The 73rd Annual Tony Awards

    BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
    Eddie Murphy – Saturday Night Live

    BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
    Maya Rudolph – Saturday Night Live

    BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
    James Cromwell – Succession

    BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
    Alexis Bledel – The Handmaid’s Tale

    BEST REALITY HOST
    RuPaul – RuPaul’s Drag Race

    BEST INTERACTIVE EXTENSION OF A LINEAR PROGRAM
    Stranger Things: Scoops Ahoy: Operation Scoop Snoop

    BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/LIGHTING DIRECTION FOR A VARIETY SERIES
    Saturday Night Live

    BEST MAIN TITLE DESIGN
    The Morning Show

    BEST MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A SERIES (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
    The Mandalorian – Ludwig Göransson

    BEST PERIOD AND/OR CHARACTER HAIRSTYLING
    The Crown – “Cri De Coeur”

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PERIOD OR FANTASY PROGRAM (ONE HOUR OR MORE)
    Watchmen

    BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
    Schitt’s Creek – “Happy Ending”

    BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL
    Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”

    BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “A Jewish Girl Walks Into the Apollo…”

    BEST STUNT COORDINATION FOR A DRAMA SERIES, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
    The Mandalorian

    BEST WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
    Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    September 17, 2020 at 4:52 pm #1203713760

    BEST DERIVATIVE INTERACTIVE PROGRAM
    Doctor Who: The Runaway

    BEST ORIGINAL INTERACTIVE PROGRAM
    The Messy Truth VR Experience

    BEST SHORT FORM ANIMATED PROGRAM
    Robot Chicken

    BEST SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
    The Good Place Presents: The Selection

    BEST ACTOR IN A SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
    Laurence Fishburne – #FreeRayshawn

    BEST ACTRESS IN A SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
    Jasmine Cephas Jones – #FreeRayshawn

    BEST CASTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
    Schitt’s Creek

    BEST CASTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
    Succession

    BEST CHARACTER VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE
    Taika Waititi – The Mandalorian

    BEST MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
    Watchmen

    BEST MUSIC SUPERVISION
    Watchmen

    BEST ORIGINAL MAIN TITLE THEME MUSIC
    Hollywood

    BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC AND LYRICS
    Last Week Tonight with John Oliver – “Eat Shit, Bob”

    BEST STUNT COORDINATION FOR A COMEDY OR VARIETY PROGRAM
    Shameless

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    September 16, 2020 at 4:45 pm #1203711225

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
    Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A MULTI-CAMERA SERIES
    The Ranch – “It Ain’t My Fault”

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES (HALF-HOUR)
    The Mandalorian – “Chapter 7: The Reckoning”

    BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING
    black-ish

    BEST FANTASY/SCI-FI COSTUMES
    The Mandalorian – “Chapter 3: The Sin”

    BEST MULTI-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
    One Day at a Time – “Boundaries”

    BEST PERIOD COSTUMES
    The Crown – “Cri de Coeur”

    BEST PERIOD MAKEUP AND/OR CHARACTER MAKEUP (NON-PROSTHETIC)
    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “It’s Comedy or Cabbage”

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE CONTEMPORARY PROGRAM (ONE HOUR OR MORE)
    The Morning Show – “In the Dark Night of the Soul It’s Always 3:30 in the Morning”

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PROGRAM (HALF-HOUR)
    The Mandalorian – “Chapter 1: The Mandalorian”

    BEST PROSTHETIC MAKEUP FOR A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL
    Star Trek: Picard – “Absolute Candor”

    BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
    Ozark – “Fire Pink”

    BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
    Watchmen – “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice”

    BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
    Stranger Things – “Chapter Eight: The Battle of Starcourt”

    BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR) AND ANIMATION
    The Mandalorian – “Chapter 1: The Mandalorian”

    BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR) AND ANIMATION
    The Mandalorian – “Chapter 2: The Child”

    BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
    Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”

    BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
    The Mandalorian – “Chapter 2: The Child”

    BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Devs – “Episode 8”

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    September 16, 2020 at 3:54 pm #1203711124

    I’ve gambled on ‘special events’, Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, other awards Reality TV, Eurovision and politics for quite a few years now. (one of my first big wins was Ang Lee winning Best Director for Life of Pi) Now I’ve become a victim of my own success so on most major sites I’m limited to tiny stakes. (Being in the UK still does give me a range of option though.)

    When I started I was looking to bet after events when bookies hadn’t adjusted their odds enough for correlated events. Chiwetel Ejiofor was still favourite for Best Actor after being beaten by Matthew McConaughey at both the Globes and Critics Choice, this year Jojo Rabbit was still available at 9/2 after it’s WGA win.

    I don’t mind betting on a prohibitive favourite, if like others have pointed out they are a dead cert as Watchmen is this year. The rule for betting is look for value not just the favourite. But there’s much more likely to be value in a 9/1 bet than a 1/9. I strongly believe Succession is going to win this year but the value isn’t there to bet on it.

    I think over time you get better at identifying when a favourite is 70% and when it’s 98% that’s important to gambling whereas I don’t think it does get much easier to call the coin flip races.

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    September 15, 2020 at 4:49 pm #1203708907

    BEST SHORT FORM VARIETY SERIES
    Carpool Karaoke: The Series

    BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
    A Black Lady Sketch Show

    BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)
    Live in Front of a Studio Audience: ‘All in the Family’ and ‘Good Times’

    BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION, OR REALITY PROGRAM
    RuPaul’s Drag Race

    BEST CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION OR REALITY PROGRAM (NON-PROSTHETIC)
    RuPaul’s Drag Race

    BEST COSTUMES FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION, OR REALITY PROGRAM
    The Masked Singer

    BEST DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
    Saturday Night Live

    BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/LIGHTING DIRECTION FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
    Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez and Shakira

    BEST MUSIC DIRECTION
    Let’s Go Crazy: The Grammy Salute to Prince

    BEST PICTURE EDITING FOR VARIETY PROGRAMMING
    Last Week Tonight with John Oliver – “Eat Sh!t, Bob!”

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A VARIETY, REALITY OR COMPETITION SERIES
    Saturday Night Live

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
    The Little Mermaid Live!

    BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A VARIETY SERIES OR SPECIAL
    The 62nd Grammy Awards

    BEST TECHNICAL DIRECTION, CAMERAWORK, VIDEO CONTROL FOR A SERIES
    Saturday Night Live

    BEST TECHNICAL DIRECTION, CAMERAWORK, VIDEO CONTROL FOR A SPECIAL
    Live in Front of a Studio Audience: “All in the Family” and “Good Times”

    BEST WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
    Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    September 14, 2020 at 6:18 pm #1203706863
    Awardsfan1990 wrote:

    Well, Tiger King walked away with zero Emmys tonight. Looks like Emmy voters may have respected it, but didn’t actually love it. I doubt it will win top honors.

    I think it’s probably the opposite, they loved watching but didn’t respect it. Fast food TV, palatable to everyone but no nutritional value and definitely not winning culinary awards.

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    February 11, 2020 at 9:35 am #1203342936

    What does second place even mean with the preferential ballot? Second in number one votes? The other film to make the final two? The film that would have won if Parasite hadn’t existed?

    These three options could well have been three different films.

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    February 10, 2020 at 1:06 pm #1203341972

    December Films get a boost when they first come out. In past years this has effected Oscar nominations. The Revenant, La La Land, The Shape of Water and Roma basically got every nomination they could.

    The condensed season meant more awards fell in this period. After Globes, PGA came very quickly, DGA is very correlated to this. Only Oscar voters had a bit of a gap to reflect on what they wanted to reward without still being in the ‘just seen it’ bubble for 1917.

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    Sagand
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    February 8, 2020 at 1:18 pm #1203335114

    The question is what margin did Crash win by? And would the voters of Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck and Munich have preferred Brokeback Mountain over Crash by enough of a margin to overturn the result.

    Gut feeling, it was very close and those voters probably would have gone more to Brokeback Mountain than Crash. So I think there is a decent chance the answer is no.

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    February 6, 2020 at 11:33 am #1203332963

    Ranked Predictions:
    Live Action:
    1. Nefta Football Club
    2. The Neighbors’ Window
    3. Saria
    4. Brotherhood
    5. A Sister

    Would be a little surprised if the winner isn’t out of the first two. A Sister is something those of us who watch to shorts have seen before, it isn’t the most effective version of it and they usually lose. Brotherhood is fine, I don’t know who is motivated to vote for it though. Saria has a call to arms kind of message but is tonally uneven. The Neighbor’s Window has the advantage of English and it’s a good short, a nice mix of new ideas and emotions. I do think the ending was lacking something more. I think Nefta wins as a story with beginning, middle and an unforeseen ending (which they love). Child actors help. It’s funny without being out-and-out comedy. It does remind me a lot of Sing which won in 2016.

    Reply
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    Sagand
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    February 1, 2020 at 8:50 am #1203323676

    By voting preferences that’s what we mean voting the film you most want to win first and the film you least want to win last. If the front runner is the film you least want to see win, it’s the rational choice to put it last. (So you’re achieving both aims of helping your favourite and never helping your least favourite.)

    What factors go into deciding that order is completely up to the individual, but once you have there is no better way to vote than:

    1. Film you most want to win
    2. Film you most want to win if #1 is eliminated
    3. Film you most want to win if #1 & #2 are eliminated
    4. Film you most want to win if #1, #2 & #3 are eliminated
    ect.

    Reply
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