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September 20, 2020 at 7:45 pm #1203723513
So they likely finished first and second in Lead Actor and Directing, there is an excess of Succession support.
September 20, 2020 at 7:03 pm #1203722962The clue was Tim Blake Nelson, they weren’t going to reward the white actors for this particular story.
September 20, 2020 at 6:55 pm #1203722862She wouldn’t have had my vote but Uzo is damn likeable.
September 20, 2020 at 6:16 pm #1203722241Since we’ve moved to the popular vote system shows winning for the first time have come very close to winning all the categories they’ve been eligible for. It was a matter of time before there was a sweep like this.
My predictions are 9/9; it gets trickier from here.
September 19, 2020 at 3:52 pm #1203718198BEST ANIMATED PROGRAM
BoJack HorsemanBEST CHILDREN’S PROGRAM
We Are the Dream: The Kids of the Oakland MLK Oratorical FestBEST COMMERCIAL
“Back-to-School Essentials” – Sandy Hook PromiseBEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES
The Last DanceEXCEPTIONAL MERIT IN DOCUMENTARY FILMMAKING
The CaveBEST TELEVISION MOVIE
Bad EducationBEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM
CheerBEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)
Dave Chappelle: Sticks & StonesBEST CASTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES MOVIE OR SPECIAL
WatchmenBEST CHOREOGRAPHY FOR VARIETY OR REALITY PROGRAMMING
So You Think You Can Dance – Travis WallBEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel “It’s Comedy or Cabbage”BEST CONTEMPORARY COSTUMES
UnorthodoxBEST CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP (NON-PROSTHETIC)
EuphoriaBEST DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
The 73rd Annual Tony AwardsBEST COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
Eddie Murphy – Saturday Night LiveBEST COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
Maya Rudolph – Saturday Night LiveBEST DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
James Cromwell – SuccessionBEST DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Alexis Bledel – The Handmaid’s TaleBEST REALITY HOST
RuPaul – RuPaul’s Drag RaceBEST INTERACTIVE EXTENSION OF A LINEAR PROGRAM
Stranger Things: Scoops Ahoy: Operation Scoop SnoopBEST LIGHTING DESIGN/LIGHTING DIRECTION FOR A VARIETY SERIES
Saturday Night LiveBEST MAIN TITLE DESIGN
The Morning ShowBEST MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A SERIES (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
The Mandalorian – Ludwig GöranssonBEST PERIOD AND/OR CHARACTER HAIRSTYLING
The Crown – “Cri De Coeur”BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PERIOD OR FANTASY PROGRAM (ONE HOUR OR MORE)
WatchmenBEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Schitt’s Creek – “Happy Ending”BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL
Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “A Jewish Girl Walks Into the Apollo…”BEST STUNT COORDINATION FOR A DRAMA SERIES, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
The MandalorianBEST WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
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Dave Chappelle: Sticks & StonesSeptember 17, 2020 at 4:52 pm #1203713760BEST DERIVATIVE INTERACTIVE PROGRAM
Doctor Who: The RunawayBEST ORIGINAL INTERACTIVE PROGRAM
The Messy Truth VR ExperienceBEST SHORT FORM ANIMATED PROGRAM
Robot ChickenBEST SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
The Good Place Presents: The SelectionBEST ACTOR IN A SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
Laurence Fishburne – #FreeRayshawnBEST ACTRESS IN A SHORT FORM COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES
Jasmine Cephas Jones – #FreeRayshawnBEST CASTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
Schitt’s CreekBEST CASTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
SuccessionBEST CHARACTER VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE
Taika Waititi – The MandalorianBEST MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL (ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE)
WatchmenBEST MUSIC SUPERVISION
WatchmenBEST ORIGINAL MAIN TITLE THEME MUSIC
HollywoodBEST ORIGINAL MUSIC AND LYRICS
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver – “Eat Shit, Bob”BEST STUNT COORDINATION FOR A COMEDY OR VARIETY PROGRAM
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ShamelessSeptember 16, 2020 at 4:45 pm #1203711225BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A MULTI-CAMERA SERIES
The Ranch – “It Ain’t My Fault”BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY FOR A SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES (HALF-HOUR)
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 7: The Reckoning”BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING
black-ishBEST FANTASY/SCI-FI COSTUMES
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 3: The Sin”BEST MULTI-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES
One Day at a Time – “Boundaries”BEST PERIOD COSTUMES
The Crown – “Cri de Coeur”BEST PERIOD MAKEUP AND/OR CHARACTER MAKEUP (NON-PROSTHETIC)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – “It’s Comedy or Cabbage”BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE CONTEMPORARY PROGRAM (ONE HOUR OR MORE)
The Morning Show – “In the Dark Night of the Soul It’s Always 3:30 in the Morning”BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A NARRATIVE PROGRAM (HALF-HOUR)
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 1: The Mandalorian”BEST PROSTHETIC MAKEUP FOR A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR SPECIAL
Star Trek: Picard – “Absolute Candor”BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
Ozark – “Fire Pink”BEST SINGLE-CAMERA PICTURE EDITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Watchmen – “It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice”BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (ONE HOUR)
Stranger Things – “Chapter Eight: The Battle of Starcourt”BEST SOUND EDITING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR) AND ANIMATION
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 1: The Mandalorian”BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES (HALF-HOUR) AND ANIMATION
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 2: The Child”BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Watchmen – “This Extraordinary Being”BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
The Mandalorian – “Chapter 2: The Child”BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
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Devs – “Episode 8”September 16, 2020 at 3:54 pm #1203711124I’ve gambled on ‘special events’, Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, other awards Reality TV, Eurovision and politics for quite a few years now. (one of my first big wins was Ang Lee winning Best Director for Life of Pi) Now I’ve become a victim of my own success so on most major sites I’m limited to tiny stakes. (Being in the UK still does give me a range of option though.)
When I started I was looking to bet after events when bookies hadn’t adjusted their odds enough for correlated events. Chiwetel Ejiofor was still favourite for Best Actor after being beaten by Matthew McConaughey at both the Globes and Critics Choice, this year Jojo Rabbit was still available at 9/2 after it’s WGA win.
I don’t mind betting on a prohibitive favourite, if like others have pointed out they are a dead cert as Watchmen is this year. The rule for betting is look for value not just the favourite. But there’s much more likely to be value in a 9/1 bet than a 1/9. I strongly believe Succession is going to win this year but the value isn’t there to bet on it.
I think over time you get better at identifying when a favourite is 70% and when it’s 98% that’s important to gambling whereas I don’t think it does get much easier to call the coin flip races.
ReplySeptember 15, 2020 at 4:49 pm #1203708907BEST SHORT FORM VARIETY SERIES
Carpool Karaoke: The SeriesBEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
A Black Lady Sketch ShowBEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)
Live in Front of a Studio Audience: ‘All in the Family’ and ‘Good Times’BEST CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION, OR REALITY PROGRAM
RuPaul’s Drag RaceBEST CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION OR REALITY PROGRAM (NON-PROSTHETIC)
RuPaul’s Drag RaceBEST COSTUMES FOR A VARIETY, NONFICTION, OR REALITY PROGRAM
The Masked SingerBEST DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
Saturday Night LiveBEST LIGHTING DESIGN/LIGHTING DIRECTION FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show Starring Jennifer Lopez and ShakiraBEST MUSIC DIRECTION
Let’s Go Crazy: The Grammy Salute to PrinceBEST PICTURE EDITING FOR VARIETY PROGRAMMING
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver – “Eat Sh!t, Bob!”BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A VARIETY, REALITY OR COMPETITION SERIES
Saturday Night LiveBEST PRODUCTION DESIGN FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL
The Little Mermaid Live!BEST SOUND MIXING FOR A VARIETY SERIES OR SPECIAL
The 62nd Grammy AwardsBEST TECHNICAL DIRECTION, CAMERAWORK, VIDEO CONTROL FOR A SERIES
Saturday Night LiveBEST TECHNICAL DIRECTION, CAMERAWORK, VIDEO CONTROL FOR A SPECIAL
Live in Front of a Studio Audience: “All in the Family” and “Good Times”BEST WRITING FOR A VARIETY SERIES
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Last Week Tonight with John OliverSeptember 14, 2020 at 6:18 pm #1203706863Well, Tiger King walked away with zero Emmys tonight. Looks like Emmy voters may have respected it, but didn’t actually love it. I doubt it will win top honors.
I think it’s probably the opposite, they loved watching but didn’t respect it. Fast food TV, palatable to everyone but no nutritional value and definitely not winning culinary awards.
ReplyFebruary 11, 2020 at 9:35 am #1203342936What does second place even mean with the preferential ballot? Second in number one votes? The other film to make the final two? The film that would have won if Parasite hadn’t existed?
These three options could well have been three different films.
ReplyFebruary 10, 2020 at 1:06 pm #1203341972December Films get a boost when they first come out. In past years this has effected Oscar nominations. The Revenant, La La Land, The Shape of Water and Roma basically got every nomination they could.
The condensed season meant more awards fell in this period. After Globes, PGA came very quickly, DGA is very correlated to this. Only Oscar voters had a bit of a gap to reflect on what they wanted to reward without still being in the ‘just seen it’ bubble for 1917.
ReplyFebruary 8, 2020 at 1:18 pm #1203335114The question is what margin did Crash win by? And would the voters of Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck and Munich have preferred Brokeback Mountain over Crash by enough of a margin to overturn the result.
Gut feeling, it was very close and those voters probably would have gone more to Brokeback Mountain than Crash. So I think there is a decent chance the answer is no.
ReplyFebruary 6, 2020 at 11:33 am #1203332963Ranked Predictions:
Live Action:
1. Nefta Football Club
2. The Neighbors’ Window
3. Saria
4. Brotherhood
5. A SisterWould be a little surprised if the winner isn’t out of the first two. A Sister is something those of us who watch to shorts have seen before, it isn’t the most effective version of it and they usually lose. Brotherhood is fine, I don’t know who is motivated to vote for it though. Saria has a call to arms kind of message but is tonally uneven. The Neighbor’s Window has the advantage of English and it’s a good short, a nice mix of new ideas and emotions. I do think the ending was lacking something more. I think Nefta wins as a story with beginning, middle and an unforeseen ending (which they love). Child actors help. It’s funny without being out-and-out comedy. It does remind me a lot of Sing which won in 2016.
ReplyFebruary 1, 2020 at 8:50 am #1203323676By voting preferences that’s what we mean voting the film you most want to win first and the film you least want to win last. If the front runner is the film you least want to see win, it’s the rational choice to put it last. (So you’re achieving both aims of helping your favourite and never helping your least favourite.)
What factors go into deciding that order is completely up to the individual, but once you have there is no better way to vote than:
1. Film you most want to win
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2. Film you most want to win if #1 is eliminated
3. Film you most want to win if #1 & #2 are eliminated
4. Film you most want to win if #1, #2 & #3 are eliminated
ect.