[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204756113

Babylonian wrote:

My aunt’s friend’s hair stylist is friends with Academy members, and their group messages are all about Kristen Stewart. The Academy loves her and she is dominating that conversation. Don’t take her out just yet!!!!!!

My uncle is a member of the Academy, and he said there is a mysterious momentum that roots for Camila Cabello! Watch out for her she may be landing a surprise nom!!

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755704

musicreloaded wrote:

Kirsten still has a chance and Gaga too (her Oscar campaign is disgusting. How much she paid to Variety for all those articles back in November and those from this week?)

Nah Variety is exploiting her stardom and fame for clicks 👀 Just look at what Clayton Davis is doing

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755643

Feinberg did have some kind of industry connections I believe. While those sources could get him some insights and directions, they could also get him super lost. He just wrote an article about how it becomes more and more difficult to predict the Oscars. He couldn’t be connected to all 10k Ampas voters right? I assume he is only in touch with a small portion of them.

Clayton Davis, on the other hand, is a complete clown lol 👿 Like seriously, he gets paid for doing that??

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755520

jamon__serrano wrote:

Maybe I’m trying to be the Clayton Davis of this thread.

LMAO the jinx…I cant.

But seriously I remember the time when it is a felony to not place Kristen at no.1 spot

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755463

Aimerarrow wrote:

she can still get in like our three surprise spanish speaking actors that weve had in the past 3 years.

They have at least Critics Choice nomination or top BP contender momentum though. Cruz is theoretically possible but I don’t think it’s a very likely scenario like many people are expecting. Also nominations are voted by the actor chapter only right? I doubt the foreign voters make up a majority in the acting chapter.

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755340

Giordano Bruno wrote:

I think in the last part you actually meant HOG and not Gaga, right?

Yes omg I was distracted lol I meant to say difficult for Gaga to win and for HoG to get in BP.  I think both her and the film need more foreign support now and that may be a twist. She won an Italian festival, a Brazilian award, and got nominated in a French critics circle? Like they don’t indicate foreign industry support but it definitely shows HoG is the more well-known film overall.

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755332

pierremg wrote:

HOG missing PGA has nothing to do with Gaga chances of being nominated. It’s the actors branch that matters in this case, and Gaga secured her SAG nod.

Lol my bad I was meant to say “winning” but my mind got distracted and typed “nominated”. Gaga is very likely to get nominated I think that’s a universal fact now.

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755268

Giordano Bruno wrote:

I am really confused with HOG and BTR chances after today because, HOG got snubbed on the guilds but its still the only actress film with the cast SAG nom so I dont know if there is enough support on it. While BTR got PGA and WGA where it shows that there is a lot of support yet someone told me that almost every Sorkin Work gets nominated on those and the movie missed hair and make up Oscar long list which is important for a biopic

Every year there will be SAG cast ensemble nominee missed out on BP, but rarely do movies missed PGA could get into BP. So BTR is far far ahead of HoG right now. Getting into PGA is way more important than getting into makeup/costume shortlist.

It’s looking very very bad for HoG and Gaga at this point. HoG did not only missed PGA, but also AFI, NBR, GG, and CC. It’s likely not gonna make Bafta. I think Gaga still has some chance of nomination, but that will require some unprecedented twist, which is theoretically possible still.

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755201

Films that missed PGA but got in BP from the past 7 years:

2021: The Father

2020: none

2019: none

2018: Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread

2017: None

2016: Room

2015: Selma

I know the Father was released super late so maybe there is a screener issue? Someone who followed last year race know better. Otherwise, it’s looking really really bad for HoG and TLD.

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204755104

So which Academy category is Casting guild most related to?

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204754990

I’ve been saying that BTR will not only appeal to older voters tho. It also talks about being a woman in the show biz, ageism on female actors, mid-life marriage crisis, conflicts between artists and media… These themes will appeal to almost every academy voter. The film is far more than just a Lucille Ball story, you don’t need to know who Lucille is to feel connected to these themes.

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[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204752728

Bohemian Bovine wrote:

Lol, yeah there’s the flipside too where you make too much money and Oscar turns their eye.

I think it also has to do with what kind of films that are grossing that much money. Ampas certainly don’t appreciate Marvel/DC action-thriller films that earn billions easily. So do comedy, horror films, and huge IP films like Harry Potter and Twilight.

IMO the box office boost works best when it comes to the kind of “Oscar films”, because it somehow creates a narrative that “both the industry and the audience are loving it”. For example if West Side Story this year gets $400M B.O. it will almost have BP locked. In the cases for Julia, JLaw, Emma Stone, Sandra, they all won in films that Ampas like, while having huge B.O. showing audience like at the same time.

[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204752581

jamon__serrano wrote:

“But they will probably choose to ignore them in favor of bigger or more popular names.” And then you see Kristen Stewart there, a massive movie star, lol.

Penelope is also a massive star, one of the most famous Spanish actresses. Spencer and Pizza receives top campaign resources just like other “big name” films. Mothers had an amazing start with a Volpi, though Sony kinda screwed it up later. Comer is literally in a $100 million production movie. Tessa’s co star Ruth Negga is getting in most places.

My point is not that these aren’t good performances. But this whole “the academy only goes for bigger names or whoever campaign the most” argument do not stand, like at all.

[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204752511

jamon__serrano wrote:

Not the same 10 performances that Film Twitter constantly feeds to each other. They’re not better than the Academy members. They’re just more snob about it. I mean, they even have the same (and only) black woman and the same international performances as everyone else, lol.

This. At least come up with something new, something that actually receive no exposure and no promo at all. Great performance is a subjective matter but film twitter just can’t get over it. Plus every year there will be great performances not getting nominated. It’s not a specific case for this year’s race.

[UnionCityMood Joined: Jan 8th, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204752432

krisden25 wrote:

one certain someone makes all Kristen’s fans look very bad. It sucks. Gaga and Stewart both just incredibly awesome and talanted gay icons. 95% of the people here loved Kristen’s performance, no one is saying that she was bad. When will people realize that a good performance by one actress does not make another’s performance worse. It’s about the facts and the facts say that Kristen is behind Gaga. No one forbids hoping that Stewart will be nominated or win by some miracle. I also want her to win, not Gaga. But I do not deny at the same time that Gaga has more chances. Say either something good or don’t say anything

Thanks for saying this. I never understand these twitter stan war and I think both sides are responsible. While I am more of a Gaga fan, I also grew up watching Twilight (lol) and would love to see both get nominated. I demand them to have a photo together. Plus they are obviously gonna click well, Kristen literally said she’s a big fan a few days ago.

I don’t take those trolls seriously anymore, they’re like clowns. I am not even sure if they’re real Kristen fans or just some Gaga haters using Kristen as a tool. We’ve seen multiple trolls here dressed as other actresses’ fans, but actually are stans of other pop singers.