[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203142379

John Berchmans wrote:

Just saw the second trailer for Marriage Story and Johansson absolutely looks Oscar worthy, maybe even just as good as Driver. Not sure where all the people saying her performance isn’t good enough are coming from.

FYI: All her “Oscar worthy scenes.” Were in the trailer. She’s very bland throughout except for two scenes.

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[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203141721

Babygirl wrote:

I swear this thread claims a new frontrunner every day lol.

Anne Thompson just moved Theron to her number 1 spot.

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[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203141492

Dennis El Mar wrote:

It just occurred to me that only 2 Actress winners this decade played real life people (Colman, Streep) and neither of them won SAG. That means that no actress has won SAG so far this decade for playing a real life person.

That’s compared to:

-4 Supporting Actresses winning Oscars for playing real life people (Leo, Nyong’o, Vikander, Janney, all of whom won SAG)

-3 Supporting Actors winning Oscars for playing real life people (Bale, Rylance, Ali, Bale and Ali won SAG while Tommy Lee Jones won SAG but not the Oscar)

-7 Lead Actors winning Oscars for playing real life people (Firth, DDL, McConaughey, Redmayne, DiCaprio, Oldman, Malek, all of whom won SAG)

Y’all can say that Theron/Zellweger are winning SAG until you’re blue in the face and they very well could, but Johansson is a lot closer to fitting the mold of what SAG goes for in this decade. I’m tired of people making claims about this race based on generalizations and baseless claims, if you have compelling evidence as to why Theron is winning besides how well her performance has been received at one screening I’m all ears.

I don’t know anyone else but I’m giving great reasons why Theron is probably winning this.

Summary:
-Theron has the performance and the movie.
-Zellweger has the performance
-Johansson has the movie.

The problem with Johansson is that Driver is in a better position than her to win. The movie is mostly from his perspective.

Also, Laura Dern is in a great position to win for that movie because she’s overdue.

Marriage Story is NOT winning three Oscars for acting.

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[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203141474

Thatcher, Former Prime Minister of GoldDerby wrote:

Darlings, Thatcher was heartbroken because of that f*cking trailer. I’m sending troops to Baumbach’s house. I won’t allow anyone to break Thatcher’s heart like that.

Oops, and Johansson is the clear frontrunner. You better accept it, dear citizens.

Your delusion for Scarlett winning is the same delusion you had for Headey winning. This time you should learn from last time. Accept reality.

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[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139901

Green Spleen wrote:

You have a point, though then the category would be pretty barren. I guess we could look forward to Saoirse or Lupita winning in that case. Unless they decide Little Women and Us are comedies too, in which case maybe Cynthia Erivo will actually win something this season.

Scarlett Johansson and Renee Zellweger are both Drama
Theron is Comedy/Musical

If Zellweger goes Comedy/Musical which I doubt that will give Johansson a clear path.

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[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139858

Best Actress in a Leading Role

1. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)- Charlize not only have the transformative showy performance, but also an across the board contender with a timely subject matter sure to score 5+ nominations.

2. Renee Zellweger (Judy)- Zellweger right now has the momentum for her Transformative performance in Judy but that is poised to change since Her movie will probably score 1-2 nominations. It’s hard to Maintain momentum if your film is not good. Only in weak years like 2014, 2011, 2003(Moore- Still Alice, Streep in the Iron Lady, Theron in Monster etc) a sole contender goes all the way).

3. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)- Johansson has a disvantaged, she has a very subtle performance. She is upstaged by her Co Star Adam Driver who is likely to win in his category. Netflix has never won an acting award at the Oscars. But her movie is indeed an across the board contender and it’s still possible for her to prevail but it’ll be hard to contend against two transformative performance, especially one(Theron) in a film will be talked about from now to the Oscars.

4. Jodie Turner Smith(Queen and Slim)- According to screenings reactions she’s great in it and AMPAS probably will be looking for some diversity in this category.

5. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) According to screenings, she’s good but not anything out of her comfort zone and anything we’ve seen before. Could be a player but not more than a filler nomination.

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[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139658

CateNicole wrote:

She’s simply not as talented. I wish I could help people see this without sounding patronizing.

She saids she’ll be a good tree so maybe she has it in her.

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139626

Nikhil wrote:

I don’t know how people keep saying this with certaininty and are being so dismissive of Johansson. Johansson’s presence in a top best picture contender makes her a huge threat to win. There is enourmous precedence for this. This is especially true given her competition is Zellweger (Judy will not be a BP nom) or Theron (Bombshell may be a nominee). I’d say she’s the definite frontrunner and will stay that way unless Zellweger starts sweeping like Julianne Moore or Cate Blanchett. But remember those scenarios are rare and for every one of those we have a Glenn Close or Natalie Portman who get stood up by the bigger movie.

Johansson has a tough path. Outside from not having a showy performance, Driver is more likely to take it or Dern. She’s #3 priority for Netflix in acting.

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139485

Dennis El Mar wrote:

Pacino is playing a real life person

He’s not winning. It’s Pitts race.

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139234

EsOS wrote:

One thing is certain, stats point to Scarlett taking SAG.

This stat is more effective. Some one has won for playing a real life person every year except 1998 and 2016.

If Phoenix/Driver wins Actor
If Dern/ Robbie wins S. Actress
If Pitt/Pacino wins S. Actor

Stats point to Theron or Zellweger as the winner since both are playing real life people.

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139092

ayanami wrote:

Right? Scarlett has had enough.

I can assure everyone right now that Scarlett Johansson is not winning the Oscar. Everyone can save this post.

Stats point to either Theron or Zellweger to win.

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203139052

TheDreamingHead wrote:

How can you leave out Charlize when this thread literally blew up thanks to her?

The disrespect is real for this year’s Best Actress Oscar winner.

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203138675

The Raves for Theron keep on coming.

1) “After seeing #Bombshell, I have a new #Oscars2020 Best Actress favorite & her name is Charlize Theron, frighteningly PERFECT as Megyn Kelly.”- ErickWeber (AwardsACE)

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203138518

Salsa Club wrote:

The one thing that separates Bombshell from all of those is the #MeToo movement which is not comical in the slightest. It should and will compete in Drama

Yeah, but the characters are hilarious. We also know that going comedy at the globes doesn’t necesarily mean its a “comedy”. I thought we all knew this by now.

[Victor CruzParticipant Joined: Sep 8th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 535 View Predictions]

#1203138486

Pulp wrote:

The trailer seems totally drama to me besides the song. I do except plenty of humor in it, but I think it will ultimately be a drama. From a strategic standpoint it should go comedy at the Globes if it can.

I can guarentee you Bombshell is going Comedy. It is the Itonya/Vice/The Big Short of this year.