Not necessarily. Sometimes awards stats, however consistent they may seem, can be shattered quite easily. There’s every reason to anticipate a non-precursor editing winner at the Oscars if BAFTA makes an unexpected choice. That said, BAFTA have awarded Best Editing to four films involving fast motor driving this decade: the documentary Senna, Rus…[Read more]

Do you honestly think The Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire wouldn’t have won on the preferential ballot? Besides, if the Academy had an ensemble award you can bet Parasite would’ve been nominated for it like at SAG. Just because a film lacks individual acting nominations doesn’t mean it lacks support from actors altogether.

I still think Ford v Ferrari will win editing at the Oscars, but the ACE win for Parasite suggests it has broad enough support to remain competitive for Best Picture. I’m anticipating it to win WGA as well.

Reaching

That’s absurd. Most “locked” winners probably don’t win by much more than 50% and maybe even less sometimes. I doubt even sweepers like Daniel Day-Lewis and Cate Blanchett won with 80% of votes.

I disliked Jojo Rabbit but I think you may be right. Just because Little Women rebounded in the Best Picture race since December doesn’t mean it’s suddenly the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay over films more solidly positioned beforehand. I’ll keep Gerwig in third unless she wins WGA. Critics Choice doesn’t mean shit.

Um, no it hasn’t. Ex Machina certainly didn’t have the most effects and neither did First Man. With rare exceptions, the film with the most nominations elsewhere wins Visual Effects, which this year would be The Irishman or 1917, though having two nominees in this position complicates things.

This is mostly very simplistic and naive, and does not address the real topic of discussion, which is consistent lack of recognition of Asian acting talent over a long period of time, not just this year.

This is all true; personally I was just analysing them from my own perspective, as it would be hypocritical of me to complain about certain Asian performers being snubbed when I myself would not vote for them.

Small correction: it was The Irishman that got the costume nom, not 1917. But your overall observations are on point.

I don’t think Memoirs of a Geisha or Slumdog Millionaire were deserving of acting nominations. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon certainly had great performances but Zhang Ziyi’s supporting bid was blatant category fraud. (She and Michelle Yeoh were nominated at BAFTA for supporting and lead, respectively.) Considering them both in the lead category,…[Read more]

I expect this is more likely to win Film Editing (especially with a BP nom), as 1917 seems the type to scoop up both sound prizes.

Unfortunately for Greta Gerwig, Little Women seems the most likely to go home empty-handed as I don’t buy it winning Adapted Screenplay over The Irishman and Jojo Rabbit, and the Academy has recently gone less traditional with their costume winners (though in fairness this isn’t the strongest year for the category – The Favourite would’ve handily…[Read more]

Considering The Farewell got completely blanked, I expect Lupita was just as much in contention with her SAG nom as Awkwafina.

It was a mandatory 10 the years The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech won Best Picture. They only introduced the 5-10 system the year after that.

1. Parasite
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Marriage Story
5. Little Women
6. 1917
7. Joker
8. Ford v. Ferrari
9. Jojo Rabbit

With The Irishman having the most nominations it probably wins, as we’ve seen countless times in past ceremonies. Visual effects winners often have one unifying “concept” to its effects (Ava in Ex Machina, Richard Parker in Life of Pi, pioneering early special effects works of Georges Méliès in Hugo, reverse aging effects in Benjamin Button, K…[Read more]

Well that makes sense. I thought you meant it was due to the R-rating in and of itself. Her snub for Bombshell is very different from all her other snubs.

Still not a good comparison. Lupita was nominated at SAG and was in a mainstream hit from Universal directed by a recent Oscar-winner. A24 on the other hand have been useless at getting long-shot or even on-the-bubble acting contenders nominated. Lupita predictably didn’t make it in the end but she was far more in contention than Collette ever was.

Next time I’m just gonna look at the names of the songwriters for my predictions instead of listening. It’s so clear how insular name-recognition gets you rubberstamped with this branch, with rare exceptions.

Bates escaped the NBR curse lol