That comparison seems a bit random; it pains me to say it, but I don’t think there was that much passion for Hawke’s performance outside of critics and the indie community. Whereas Banderas is playing a warmer character in a more accessible movie, plus he occupies the obligatory Sony Pictures Classics foreign nominee slot.

I’m curious, what do you see winning Production Design?

Maybe, but then would Pacino really be a threat to Pitt? Pacino already has his Oscar, and while he’s great in The Irishman he’s not exactly reinventing himself. It’s the opposite situation with Dafoe in that his film is less Academy-friendly but in his role he is unlike we’ve ever seen him before. He could go either way: either a threat to win,…[Read more]

Colman only showed up when she won (including BAFTA of course) – not that she could’ve known lol.

I don’t think that comparison is completely apt as Citizen Kane was an original screenplay while West Side Story is first and foremost a Broadway musical ripe for reinvention. While the original movie is great, there were compromises, such as a few watered-down lyrics (which were pretty mild to begin with) and a non-Hispanic Maria in Natalie…[Read more]

People always say this about Adams, but I’m convinced that if there was a different actress in each of Adams’s nominated roles none of them would be described as coattailing. Adams just happens to have been nominated a lot for movies with other nominated performances. And? In Doubt she played a previously Tony-nominated role. In The Fighter she…[Read more]

What’s so bold about either of those predictions? They’re both awards season releases with major stars as real people, and neither of them even have 100/1 odds.

That’s interesting because I found Guadagnino’s Suspiria mostly quite tedious, which I wasn’t expecting at all. I guess our reactions don’t always fit predictable patterns.

I have The Lighthouse at a placeholder #10, which I suppose means I’m not predicting it as 10 nominees is mathematically extremely unlikely under the current system. Still, it has potential crossover appeal for younger/international members and some older Academy types who will appreciate its craft and old-school tech credentials.

I find King’s work often translates better on film than it reads on the page, at least with some directors – like how de Palma made a deft film out of a hopelessly bogged down debut novel in Carrie, and Kubrick rid The Shining of most of its banalities (side note: shorter European cut of this film is the best version).

I take your point, though the way I see it (and this might not be a popular view) The Lighthouse doesn’t outweird something like There Will Be Blood by all that much, except that the former has more surrealism. That’s not an idle comparison either as both feature half-crazed performances with passages of dense prose, though Anderson’s film had…[Read more]

You say that like it’s a bad thing. 🙁

I know but saying “was never happening” sounds retrospective, as if we already had clarification on the matter. We’re not there yet. I’d say Lopez is far from a lock but still very much in play.

Why are you talking in past tense as if we’ve already had major precursor noms?

Didn’t Ullmann also describe Ross as crying on the shoulder of Shelley Winters after she lost? I think I read that somewhere, but can’t remember where.

But it is though.

I don’t share your brazen overconfidence but you make some good points.

Haha neither do I, but I’ll find a way.

Maybe for some, but in my mind the Academy does not deserve any kind of reverence – perhaps a grudging respect at best. I fully sympathise with what Phoenix said, and he isn’t even the first to make such sentiments public; before George C. Scott won his award for Patton he came down even harder on the Oscars, calling the ceremony “a two-hour…[Read more]

Just a heads up, Curzon Mayfair are showing it on December 9th. Unfortunately the earlier showing followed by Q&A with Bong Joon-ho is sold out but they’re doing a later showing at 9:15pm with intro by Bong (I think) – if you’re free and nearby, order quick cos it’ll sell out. Parasite doesn’t get a proper UK release until February 7th.