[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202781984

Mukund wrote:

Vue International, one of the largest cinema chains in Europe, Slams BAFTA for Awarding Prizes to ‘Roma’

Funnily enough, I had wondered back in November and December if Roma would even manage to get any BAFTA nominations due to the blink-and-you’ll-miss-it theatrical release it seemed to be having. I can confirm it has played a few times over the last two months in Manchester HOME, where I saw it for a second time after seeing it in Curzon Soho back in November followed by a Q&A with Cuarón. But the showings were not very regular. Roma‘s eligibility for film awards in the US seems reasonable; in the UK, not so much, though I also hate the idea of a great cinematic accomplishment being penalised just because Netflix couldn’t secure a proper theatrical release for it here.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202781426

Stegeo wrote:

Marina de Tavira isn’t winning: she’s a coattail filler nominee.

I liked your post but I slightly disagree with this part. I still maintain that there is a (tenuous) path for any nominee in this category to win, even de Tavira, because of the scattered nature of the precursors. I’ve seen some passion for de Tavira on these forums (a number of people singled her out pre-nominations as the “one they knew wouldn’t get in but deserved it” only for her to get nominated after all) and maybe some of that passion will be shared by Academy members, particularly those who are voting for Roma. It’s not hard to imagine a voter struggling to decide between Stone and Weisz while not feeling very enthusiastic about Adams or King, to then think “screw it I’m voting for Marina!”

That said, the main reason I’m not feeling a Marina surprise win, aside from the lack of precursor noms, is that spoilers in this category have tended to be larger roles or sometimes even borderline co-leads. This applies not only to Marcia Gay Harden but also going back to winners before the SAG award era, such as Geena Davis, Marisa Tomei and Anna Paquin. (This could be used as an argument in favour of Weisz this year.) There were of course those at the other end of the spectrum like Judi Dench and Beatrice Straight, but they dominated their scenes – or in the case of the latter, scene – in a way that de Tavira does not.

• This reply was modified 1 day, 8 hours ago by  Eddy Q.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202780105

Well I’m kicking myself for abandoning my Can You Ever Forgive Me? prediction, I’d thought it was the one writers would go for but then I thought the temptation to award Spike Lee would be too much. Guess I was wrong. Still think he’s winning the Oscar though.

After DGA I wondered if Eighth Grade could follow up with a win here but the competition just looked too strong on paper. But in hindsight it makes sense; Green Book and Vice were too divisive critically (and with writers that matters as they may think similarly to critics, at least up to a point), and Roma is largely considered more of a directing and cinematography achievement than a writing one (in fact the actors didn’t even have the script when they were filming). Green Book was making me nervous with its possible PGA-WGA combo, but now that’s not happening I feel much better about predicting The Favourite for the Oscar. Don’t want to be too sure though, or I might jinx it lol. After the craziness of this season it wouldn’t even shock me if Paul Schrader ended up winning for First Reformed.

Matt Gio wrote:

Hey All, I am conducting a Best Picture preferential ballot and I would love your insight. Any and all participants are welcome and appreciated! I will post the results (round by round) upon completion https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/BYRND2J

Just did this.

• This reply was modified 2 days, 14 hours ago by  Riley. Reason: Merged consecutive posts

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202779438

I just remembered, Rachel Weisz was apparently the only one of the three Favourite ladies to attend the nominees luncheon. Dunno how much difference it will make, but she has seemed the most “visible” of the three this season.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202779419

Jazzy wrote:

What the hell did you people see in Colman’s performance??? To this day, I do not understand the obsession with it. Did you ever see Elizabeth (1998)? Colman’s performance was basically just version 2.0 of Queen Mary. So all this crap about “it’s the best performance of the year” is just bewildering.

What, that? Colman’s Queen has ten times the depth even in one scene. Her physicality in the role (the very specific way of hobbling around due to her ailments) feels as integral to the character as the range of seemingly contradictory characteristics within her; her petulance and dependency, her sense of authority, a mischievous, manipulative streak and even moments of real warmth and open vulnerability. All of these things Colman combines with incredible finesse and subtlety – yes, performances as highly-pitched as this one can also be subtle. The gradual shifting of facial expressions in her close-up during the dance scene, from contentment to desperate longing to jealousy and resentment, and finally a sad fury, is a small masterpiece in itself. Colman’s comedic and dramatic chops have never been put to better use than in her Queen Anne.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202779366

Gabriel Guarin wrote:

The Favourite was ineligible at WGA and Green Book couldn’t even win Critics’ Choice. I know The Favourite couldn’t either but still

The Favourite seemed like a likelier Critics Choice winner than Green Book, so I’d say losing that is worse for the former than the latter.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202778280

Aunt Peg wrote:

Bruno Ganz just passed away: https://www.thewrap.com/bruno-ganz-who-played-hitler-in-downfall-dies-at-77/

This is sad. A fine actor. I wonder if there’s still time to put him in the In Memorium segment or if they’ll have to wait till next year.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202778278

Lagg wrote:

Some voters said they lost their zeal for “A Star Is Born” after the film converted only one of its five Golden Globe nominations into a win (best song). Others faulted Lady Gaga, who plays the main role, for giving speeches on the awards trail (the Globes, National Board of Review) that struck them as cloying. A few older voters said they had gone back to watch the 1954 version of “A Star Is Born,” with Judy Garland, and come away with the belief that the current version wasn’t as good, especially in its second hour.

Not that I want A Star Is Born to win or anything, but apart from the last those are stupid reasons not to vote for it.

[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202778264

Gabriel Guarin wrote:

You know Weisz has more pros than King yet you are still picking King anyway. That’s more proof that you WANT her to win.

Lord, give it a rest.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202778245

Black Panther could easily win 4 Oscars – Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score and Sound Editing. I’m least confident about the last one but recent precedent would favour it, and it has Ben Burtt of Star Wars and E.T. fame.

EDIT: I just found out that Benjamin A. Burtt is not the same person as Ben Burtt – his son perhaps?

• This reply was modified 4 days, 6 hours ago by  Eddy Q.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202778154

Emmyfan wrote:

https://variety.com/2016/film/awards/diane-ladd-slams-studios-greed-supporting-actress-category-1201703788/

I agree with Ladd here except that citing Rooney Mara’s Cannes award as an argument doesn’t work as it’s irrelevant; there’s no indication that that award has to go to a lead performance, and sometimes it doesn’t, like when the jury selected Virna Lisi in La Reine Margot over Isabelle Adjani from the same film.

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202778148

Joe Burns wrote:

Winslet is NOT supporting in The Reader- that was a clear lead role. From what I’ve read(https://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/question-re-kate-winslet-leading-supporting-2008/) she wanted to be in leading for Revolutionary Road. Don’t blame her for actors preferring her work in The Reader and nominating her in lead while ignoring her performance in Revolutionary Road.

Yup, Winslet’s supporting campaign for The Reader was so patently absurd even sheep Oscar voters were like “hell, no!”

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[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202777913

Apparently all 20 of the voters polled in the New York Times voted for Malek. Yikes.

[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202777907

Riley wrote:

WGA original: Vice

Interesting prediction. Why?

[Eddy QParticipant Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 18 Posts: 3078 View Predictions]

#1202777381

Another disadvantage for Weisz, other than possible vote-splitting with Stone, is that it’s rare for previous winners to win in an open race or an upset. Usually they are considered undeniable and are the clear frontrunner going into the ceremony. An exception is Sean Penn, who seemed to be duking it out with Mickey Rourke, but Penn had won SAG. There was also Christoph Waltz, but his category was all previous winners when he won the second time. I’m not saying Weisz can’t overcome this problem, but it’s something to consider.

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