Eddy Q
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August 20, 2019 at 1:20 pm #1203032157
And I couldn’t agree more with the 2018 version of myself about Pitt. He’s the crystal clear Supporting Actor frontrunner and has an excellent shot at retaining that status. It’s a foxy, funny, raunchy performance with a tragic undercurrent, and deservedly one of the most acclaimed turns of his career – and he has a narrative that’s practically impossible to beat.
My main scepticism about Pitt winning is that he’s playing such a stud – one with a shady backstory and undercurrent like you said, but the role is still not the type that usually wins Oscars for male actors, nor does it have quite the level of verbiage of Christoph Waltz’s Oscar-winning roles. I’ll concede he could win by default if no other frontrunner emerges (narrative will not be enough for him I expect), but he’s vulnerable to a potential festival revelation. Or, if A24 really get behind The Lighthouse, Willem Dafoe, who apparently has a showier role (and possibly a stronger narrative as he is older).
ReplyAugust 20, 2019 at 6:27 am #1203031369Back to Baxter, I’m curious from an alternative history perspective who would have been in sixth place with Baxter in supporting, and how would that have impacted the lead actress race? Betty Hutton?
I don’t know about the lead actress race but with Baxter in supporting I expect Thelma Ritter would’ve been 6th; all the other nominees had larger roles, and three nominees in a single category for All About Eve might have been a stretch (though other films have managed it including On the Waterfront four years later). I guess Baxter would’ve also won her second Oscar in this scenario.
ReplyAugust 19, 2019 at 6:40 am #1203029754I think The Farewell’s best shot at an Oscar nomination is for Best Supporting Actress – I can never quite remember her name? Shao Sanzhen?
Well you could just, you know, look it up, seeing as you’re already on… oh never mind.
ReplyAugust 19, 2019 at 6:37 am #1203029750No, for Best Original Screenplay.
Ah I see. Well in that case, Cuarón himself was previously nominated in that category for Y tu mamá también, losing to Pedro Almodóvar for Talk to Her, one of my favourite wins ever.
ReplyAugust 19, 2019 at 12:09 am #1203029501True, but I’m pretty sure Mexico had never been nominated before Roma either.
For best foreign film? Mexico had been nominated 8 times prior to Roma.
ReplyAugust 18, 2019 at 2:28 pm #1203029107Erivo is not happening regardless. Her movie is gonna flop like there’s no tomorrow and no one will even notice she had a movie out this year. What she needs though is to stay in the film industry for a bit to establish herself. She is too new to even win as many have been and still are predicting.
Aside from the brazen overconfidence in your prediction, no one is ever too new to win. People have won Oscars even for their film debuts before (in both lead and supporting), and there are certain types of roles so baity that any actor could potentially win for playing them as long as their performance is highly acclaimed and the film as a whole performs well enough. Harriet Tubman is such a role on paper, though of course I don’t know how this version will turn out.
ReplyAugust 18, 2019 at 9:52 am #1203028851The problem is that Florence Pugh’s campaigning will focus on Little Women, and The Lighthouse/Us are the more likely (though not super likely) horror/thriller contenders.
The Lighthouse being far more likely than Us, given that the former has an awards-friendly release date, a “European artistic” edge, and baity performances. Hard to judge what will happen but from what I hear A24 are going all out on this one.
ReplyAugust 18, 2019 at 9:15 am #1203028786Erivo seems to be this years Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex.
Jones was widely criticised for being outright miscast though, with a shaky Brooklyn accent. However Harriet performs in awards season, the only outright controversy I can forsee around Erivo is yet another major African-American role being taken by a Brit, but I doubt that will amount to much.
ReplyAugust 17, 2019 at 10:32 am #1203028010Endgame is more acclaimed than Avatar if you look at both Rotten Tomatoes scores.
The Tomatometer is not a true measurement of acclaim, it is simply a percentage of reviewers who “liked” the film (and some of whom may have had more mixed feelings, but RT’s strictly binary system doesn’t allow for nuance). Metacritic’s weighted average scoring system is more indicative of critical consensus, if there is such a thing, though it too has its problems. Avatar has a Metascore of 83, while Endgame has 78.
ReplyAugust 17, 2019 at 10:13 am #1203028000If anything beats it in Original Screenplay it will be an absolute joke
It’s far too early to take this view, and besides, I can quite easily imagine there to be better scripts this year than Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
ReplyAugust 17, 2019 at 10:04 am #1203027986LOL @ people still predicting Hanks after all his snubs. He got snubbed as Walt Disney. He got snubbed after hitting BFCA-SAG-GG-BAFTA. He gets snubbed while his co-stars get nominated. You couldnt pay me money to predict Hanks.
I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying he’ll never be nominated again, and anyway he was only truly happening recently for Captain Phillips, where he missed the final hurdle. He’ll have an easier time in supporting this season, and I’d hazard a guess that Fred Rogers will be a stronger vehicle for him than Walt Disney, unless A Beautiful Day flops critically or commercially.
ReplyAugust 15, 2019 at 1:22 am #120302471013% on Rotten Tomatoes. Yikes.
40% now – and 51 on the more measured Metacritic. Still, it’s very disappointing for Linklater, though we all got the idea this movie was in trouble.
ReplyAugust 12, 2019 at 11:06 am #1203020741You need to rewatch Robbie’s performance. Its a nothing performance. Shameful if she gets nominated.
On repeat viewings people usually notice details they previously missed, they don’t unsee things. If something makes an impression on first viewing it would be very backward for that estimation to sink to nothing after the second viewing, and would hardly be enlightened if it did. So you may have to agree to disagree with Thatcher here.
ReplyAugust 12, 2019 at 10:45 am #1203020706Alfre Woodard in Clemency is Annette Bening in Film Stars Don’t die in Liverpool 2.0. Premiere at festivals then comes out late in December and it’s completely forgotten.
Woodard’s early reviews were markedly more impressive than Bening’s though. It remains to be seen if Clemency has any staying power, but based on early reactions I could see it generating much more passion than the Gloria Grahame pic (it’s far more topical for a start).
ReplyAugust 11, 2019 at 3:36 am #1203019228How could I forget.
One of the greatest supporting actors of all time and not a single nomination.
Goodman deserved to win for Barton Fink. No nomination but his co-star Michael Lerner got one, who was also deserving.
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