I was ready to lock Malek in for the win, but then I saw that Bale hasn’t won a BAFTA yet, having lost for his role in The Fighter to Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech. If VICE wasn’t such an America centric film, I’d put him as a sure thing. I’ll probably keep Malek because Freddie Mercury is a British Icon, but Bale can still upset.

As far as…[Read more]

He won mainly because all of the other nominees that year had won an Oscar before. The Pianist was also more loved by the Academy than the other films in Best Actor, having also won Director the same night.

I think the rationale behind the nomination is that the editor was able to salvage a film that was essentially filmed by three different directors and turn it into a hit. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised at a Bohemian win here if that narrative starts to pick up steam.

Holy shit! Placed 16! I’ve really been slumping in predictions last couple of years, so glad I can finally make it into the top 20. Will definitely be banging my head against the wall over some of my misses now that I know I was within the range of the top (aka not sticking with my gut on Timothee snub).

Thoughts

-Should’ve stuck with my gut and predicted the Timothee snub. Only reason I didn’t was I didn’t think Vice would do as well as it did and I thought Sam would be an easy miss.

-Went 5/5 in Actress/Original Screenplay/Animated. The 8 BP noms were the first 8 in my lineup, so I’ll include that as a perfect too.

-Went 4/5 in Editing! I…[Read more]

I’m having the same difficulty and thoughts. I can see 10 different films winding up here. Currently have Green Book making it and Roma missing.

I would not be surprised if I went 1/5 in the category. Ironically, the only film I’m sure of is also the least likely to show up in Best Picture: First Man.

Blackkklansman has a solid chance of 6 noms. Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay are all strong possibilities (if it missed any of these, it wouldn’t have a shot of winning anyway). Then it only needs one of either Editing, Score, or Costumes. I’m betting on editing.

I agree that Green Book is unlikely to reach 6,…[Read more]

I keep switching Death of Stalin in and out with Leave No Trace. I’m leaning towards Stalin because it’s more of a writing movie (with its witty banter and all) than Leave No Trace, which I view more as an acting showcase. Also, the writer has been nominated before and he created the beloved show Veep, so he has some clout in the industry.…[Read more]

Only way I see Cooper entering back into the Best Actor conversation is if he is snubbed for Best Director. In that case, I can see an Argo scenario occurring, except with driving a Best Actor win instead of a Best Picture win.

Normally I’d agree, but Green Book is really beloved by older voters. I have spoken to 4 academy voters (all over the age of 50) in the last two months. It’s a small sample size, but all four RAVED about Green Book. And it’s hard to completely abandon a film when it’s your favorite of the year.

I doubt the BP odds will be affected, at least…[Read more]

Out of Oscar, Bafta, and SAG, I think the award Mahershala is least likely to win is the SAG. There’s just no real precedent to think that they’d give near back to back wins to an actor on his first two nominations.

On the other hand, Bafta is still very much in play for Ali. Richard Grant is british which gives him an edge, but Mahershala has…[Read more]

I agree that Ali was afforded the opportunity to have a killer role so soon after his previous win. But other actors have also had that opportunity. Eddie Redmayne had “The Danish Girl” right after “Theory of Everything”. Jeff Bridges had “True Grit” right after “Crazy Heart”. Jennifer Lawrence had “American Hustle” the year after her win.

I’m…[Read more]

I agree that if he wins SAG he’ll probably win the Oscar. However, I see his Golden Globe win as sort of a non-factor. He was skipped over at the Globes for Moonlight, so they sort of owed him. It was an easy award to hand out, especially since they loved Green Book.

SAG will be way more telling, since he has already won there and Green Book…[Read more]

Please don’t get my hopes up like that.

I’ve got The Favourite leading with 10 and both A Star is Born and Black Panther close behind with 9 each.

What do you guys think will be the film with the most noms without a corresponding best picture nomination?
Right now I have Mary Poppins Returns missing, but nabbing 6 noms, tying Carols record since the expanded best picture line up.

I hope Suspiria gets in here, but there’s a lot of competition. Currently predicting Black Panther, Vice, and Border.

Weirdly, I’m surprised Uncle Drew didn’t make the Shortlist. I was half-expecting it to be the Bad Grandpa/Norbit of the year.

I wouldn’t be so sure. Its budget of $60 million means the film needs to make $120-$150 mil worldwide to not be considered a flop. I won’t argue that awards season buzz can help the film do well domestically, but really how much is a Dick Cheney movie going to make? I feel domestic cap would be around the same as The Big Short, given their…[Read more]

Adams does seem positioned to steamroll to the oscars. However, I think that might change real quickly once reviews come out for Vice (I have a feeling they’ll be underwhelming) and once the film is released and tanks. I don’t see any scenario, in this partisan environment, where Vice recoups its $60 million budget. The liberals don’t want to see…[Read more]

I was thinking the same thing, but changed my mind after doing some research. Most of the Coen Brothers films feature large casts full of unique characters, which you would think would make their films shoo-ins for ensemble nominations. Apparently not, because the only Coen Brothers film to get a SAG Ensemble nomination was “No Country for Old…[Read more]

Nope. Julia’s in drama, while King and Adams are Limited Series.