Tom Hanks becoming the first Big Star to be infected with COVID-19 might put him at the forefront of voters minds. After so many years of ignoring him, voters might feel guilty of taking him for granted. Especially when we could have lost him.

Black director seems likeliest. I would add “two or more women nominated in Director in the same year” and “a director wins for a comic book film”. (I don’t think a comic book film can win on a preferential ballot, but I think one with a ton of passion could take director)

This type of question has come up before in television. The Emmy’s allowed Non-binary Actor Asia Kate Dillon to choose the category for which their role (for Billions) would be submitted. They chose Actor because the term is gender-neutral. They weren’t nominated though.

The Academy could do the same thing. It’s the safest route to take, I…[Read more]

I don’t think the Oscars will shy away from movies with social messages, just movies in politics. I doubt they’ll want to reward a movie about a democratic convention in chaos, when we’re quite likely to have our own democratic convention in chaos this year.

As far as musicals go, I don’t think any of them will be strong enough to win this…[Read more]

This year is going to be overwhelming political with the 2020 election and by the end of the year voters will be tired of all things politics, including films. Which is why I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 will largely be ignored, even if it is a great film. It seems to take place in the world of politics, which is going to be the last thing the…[Read more]

Last Night in SOHo strikes me as the cool/loved film that only gets a screenplay nod come Oscar morning a la “Knives Out” “The Lobster” and “Nightcrawler”. If it pops up anywhere else, it’ll be in costume design, since the story takes place in the 1960s London Fashion world.

I’ve been considering it. The story of Fred Hampton is primed for a film adaptation and I think showing the film through the eyes of William O’Neil is a great choice. Also, the talent in front of the camera seems legit. However, I try to make my early predictions based on who’s behind the camera, which is where my hesitation comes in.

Shaka…[Read more]

Finally saw 1917. Biggest takeaway is it has a serious shot at production design, if voters can resist their Hollywood nostalgia. It must have been a tremendous undertaking to create the trenches and war torn buildings. I’m still going with OUATH, but that’s because I have very little faith in the academy.

2000: Requiem for a Dream
Runner-up: American Psycho

2001: Donnie Darko
Runner-up: Monster’s, Inc.

2002: Adaptation
Runner-up: The Pianist

2003: City of God
Runner-up: Elf

2004: The Incredibles
Runner-up: Survive Style +5

2005: Brokeback Mountain
Runner-up: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

2006: United 93
Runner-up: The Prestige

2007:…[Read more]

1. Blue Valentine (2010)
2. Moonlight (2016)
3. Parasite (2019)
4. Whiplash (2014)
5. Hereditary (2018)
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014)
7. We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)
8. Good Time (2017)
9. Son of Saul (2015)
10. Uncut Gems (2019)

Honorable Mentions: Inside Llewyn Davis (2013); Get Out (2017); The Favourite (2018); The Wolf of…[Read more]

This category reminds me a lot of the Visual Effects Category from the 2015 Oscars when Ex Machina upset. With no clear frontrunner, there’s ripe for a surprise. I’m hoping vote splitting allows the “Little Indie That Could” to prevail again and I Lost My Body wins.

I Lost My Body in Animated Feature.

Parasite in Production Design.

2010: Blue Valentine
Runner-up: Mother

2011: We Need to Talk About Kevin
Runner-up: Shame

2012: End of Watch
Runner-up: Cabin in the Woods

2013: Inside Llewyn Davis
Runner-up: The Wolf of Wallstreet

2014: Whiplash
Runner-up: The Grand Budapest Hotel

2015: Son of Saul
Runner-up: Spotlight

2016: Moonlight
Runner-up: Arrival

2017: Good Time…[Read more]

You’re like the PGA lol

I agree. Score doesn’t seem likely despite Thomas Newman being overdue. But 1917 can still rack up a pretty high count. Currently I’d rank the chances of winning:

Very Likely
1. Cinematography
2. Directing
3. Sound Editing
4. Sound Mixing

Good Chance
5. Picture

Toss Up
6. Visual Effects
7. Production Design

Probably Not
8. Score
9. Makeup and…[Read more]

While I still have a feeling that Parasite will eek out a win, I do think that a 1917 sweep would be a pretty ironic way to end the decade. Averaging 3.5 wins per Best Picture Winner with the highest win total being 5 (The Artist), the 2010s have had BP winners with notoriously low win counts. It’d be kind of funny if the decade went out with a…[Read more]

At least Parasite got in for Production Design and Lighthouse got in for Cinematography.

2012 I think

Getting a bit scared. They’re on pace for OscarsSoWhite 3.0. And I know Best Actress has a bunch of contenders, but 1 person of color out of 20 nominations isn’t a good look either.

If she does have a challenger, it’ll be Margot Robbie. She’d be double nominated this year, if Oscars allowed it. Plus Margot has been having just as good of a couple of years as Dern. Not to mention Oscars tend to reward younger, good looking actresses when they can (Jennifer Lawrence, Alicia Vikander, Emma Stone).

I’m still leaning towards…[Read more]