1. Mank misses picture, but gets in for director.
2. Multiple acting nominees that have not shown up at the Globes, SAG or Bafta. (David Straithairn, Sydney Flanigan, Delroy Lindo are all possibilities… plus who knows what’s going to happen in supporting actress)
3. We get a nominee total that we have not gotten before.
4. First Cow or NRSA get…[Read more]
Bird replied to the topic Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 8) in the forum Movies 5 months, 3 weeks ago
My theory on the lack of Judas hype is that it started screening too late. Usually when films screen late, it’s during the holiday season where people in the industry have time to watch their screeners. This year, late means end of January/February. And despite the Pandemic, Hollywood is still booming (I work in the industry and it’s really insane…[Read more]
Bird replied to the topic Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 5) in the forum Movies 7 months, 1 week ago
I’m starting to think that Mank will pull a Foxcatcher and miss picture, but get in for Director. There seems to be a lot of respect for what Fincher did, but not really passion for the film itself.
Good news for Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Last time a NYFCC screenplay winner wasn’t also nominated for a Screenplay Oscar was Rachel Getting Married in 2008. And the only winner in the last 2 decades to not get any nominations at the Oscars was in 2003 for the Secret Lives of Dentists.
Right now I have Frances McDormand and Viola Davis solidly in place (with maybe Vanessa Kirby in 3rd, but still not completely sold on that).
Watch out for Sidney Flanigan. She’s pretty incredible in Never Rarely Sometimes Always. If she can catch waves with critics and the Spirits, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her Oscar nominated.
Tom Hanks becoming the first Big Star to be infected with COVID-19 might put him at the forefront of voters minds. After so many years of ignoring him, voters might feel guilty of taking him for granted. Especially when we could have lost him.
Black director seems likeliest. I would add “two or more women nominated in Director in the same year” and “a director wins for a comic book film”. (I don’t think a comic book film can win on a preferential ballot, but I think one with a ton of passion could take director)
This type of question has come up before in television. The Emmy’s allowed Non-binary Actor Asia Kate Dillon to choose the category for which their role (for Billions) would be submitted. They chose Actor because the term is gender-neutral. They weren’t nominated though.
The Academy could do the same thing. It’s the safest route to take, I…[Read more]
I don’t think the Oscars will shy away from movies with social messages, just movies in politics. I doubt they’ll want to reward a movie about a democratic convention in chaos, when we’re quite likely to have our own democratic convention in chaos this year.
As far as musicals go, I don’t think any of them will be strong enough to win this…[Read more]
This year is going to be overwhelming political with the 2020 election and by the end of the year voters will be tired of all things politics, including films. Which is why I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 will largely be ignored, even if it is a great film. It seems to take place in the world of politics, which is going to be the last thing the…[Read more]
Last Night in SOHo strikes me as the cool/loved film that only gets a screenplay nod come Oscar morning a la “Knives Out” “The Lobster” and “Nightcrawler”. If it pops up anywhere else, it’ll be in costume design, since the story takes place in the 1960s London Fashion world.
I’ve been considering it. The story of Fred Hampton is primed for a film adaptation and I think showing the film through the eyes of William O’Neil is a great choice. Also, the talent in front of the camera seems legit. However, I try to make my early predictions based on who’s behind the camera, which is where my hesitation comes in.
Finally saw 1917. Biggest takeaway is it has a serious shot at production design, if voters can resist their Hollywood nostalgia. It must have been a tremendous undertaking to create the trenches and war torn buildings. I’m still going with OUATH, but that’s because I have very little faith in the academy.
2000: Requiem for a Dream
Runner-up: American Psycho
2001: Donnie Darko
Runner-up: Monster’s, Inc.
Runner-up: The Pianist
2003: City of God
2004: The Incredibles
Runner-up: Survive Style +5
2005: Brokeback Mountain
Runner-up: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
2006: United 93
Runner-up: The Prestige
1. Blue Valentine (2010)
2. Moonlight (2016)
3. Parasite (2019)
4. Whiplash (2014)
5. Hereditary (2018)
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014)
7. We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)
8. Good Time (2017)
9. Son of Saul (2015)
10. Uncut Gems (2019)
Honorable Mentions: Inside Llewyn Davis (2013); Get Out (2017); The Favourite (2018); The Wolf of…[Read more]
This category reminds me a lot of the Visual Effects Category from the 2015 Oscars when Ex Machina upset. With no clear frontrunner, there’s ripe for a surprise. I’m hoping vote splitting allows the “Little Indie That Could” to prevail again and I Lost My Body wins.
2010: Blue Valentine
2011: We Need to Talk About Kevin
2012: End of Watch
Runner-up: Cabin in the Woods
2013: Inside Llewyn Davis
Runner-up: The Wolf of Wallstreet
Runner-up: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Son of Saul
2017: Good Time…[Read more]
- Load More