Forum Replies Created
March 14, 2021 at 6:08 pm #1204126904
1. Mank misses picture, but gets in for director.
2. Multiple acting nominees that have not shown up at the Globes, SAG or Bafta. (David Straithairn, Sydney Flanigan, Delroy Lindo are all possibilities… plus who knows what’s going to happen in supporting actress)
3. We get a nominee total that we have not gotten before.
4. First Cow or NRSA get into screenplay.February 13, 2021 at 8:51 am #1204040291
My theory on the lack of Judas hype is that it started screening too late. Usually when films screen late, it’s during the holiday season where people in the industry have time to watch their screeners. This year, late means end of January/February. And despite the Pandemic, Hollywood is still booming (I work in the industry and it’s really insane how busy it actually is…). People don’t have as much time to watch the films now as they would in December. maybe the HBOMAX release will build hype so those voter’s who haven’t seen it yet will make time.December 30, 2020 at 12:31 am #1203952585
I’m starting to think that Mank will pull a Foxcatcher and miss picture, but get in for Director. There seems to be a lot of respect for what Fincher did, but not really passion for the film itself.December 18, 2020 at 1:15 pm #1203930588
The thing Flanigan has going for her is “the scene”. It’s a powerhouse showcase of her talents.December 18, 2020 at 12:24 pm #1203930407
Ah, forgot Phantom Thread missed out on screenplay. Good catch. It did get a ton of noms, so NRSA is still looking good, if not for screenplay, possibly actress.December 18, 2020 at 11:20 am #1203930205
Good news for Never Rarely Sometimes Always. Last time a NYFCC screenplay winner wasn’t also nominated for a Screenplay Oscar was Rachel Getting Married in 2008. And the only winner in the last 2 decades to not get any nominations at the Oscars was in 2003 for the Secret Lives of Dentists.November 14, 2020 at 3:26 pm #1203837050
Right now I have Frances McDormand and Viola Davis solidly in place (with maybe Vanessa Kirby in 3rd, but still not completely sold on that).
Watch out for Sidney Flanigan. She’s pretty incredible in Never Rarely Sometimes Always. If she can catch waves with critics and the Spirits, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her Oscar nominated.February 27, 2020 at 6:37 pm #1203363146
I’ve only recently heard of Next Goal Wins and already I’m pretty excited. I don’t think it’ll get as far as Jojo did, but it should do fairly well. I think Fassbender might be the most likely shot, as the more lighthearted good guy role could be seen as him breaking typecasting (not to mention the overdue narrative he’s accumulated over the decade). I can’t say anything on Moss and Hammer without knowing the roles they play, although the former could develop an exposure narrative thanks to Shirley’s and The Invisible Man’s good reviews and The French Dispatch most definitely following suit. I am very curious, though, how they will treat Kaimana. The Academy will probably give Kaimana a nomination for #OscarsSoWhite ‘s sake, but here’s the thing: Kaimana is a fa’afafine, basically the Samoan version of a non-binary person. Of course, the Academy has never nominated a non-binary person before, and while the real-life person they’re playing apparently goes by female pronouns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy will find itself in a rut on where to put them.
This type of question has come up before in television. The Emmy’s allowed Non-binary Actor Asia Kate Dillon to choose the category for which their role (for Billions) would be submitted. They chose Actor because the term is gender-neutral. They weren’t nominated though.
The Academy could do the same thing. It’s the safest route to take, I believe. Though, it will probably result in third-rate conservative actors trying to submit themselves to best actress “to own the libs”.February 25, 2020 at 10:34 am #1203359945
So ideal time for musicals to break out? Though that’s what they said when La La Land was gaining steam and we saw what happened.
Exactly. It swept the globes and won the best film at baftas (and won other awards im forgetting). The oscars went with a movie that has an strong social message. Im a fan of musicals and I would love to see another one win. Im just not sure this is the year for it (I do expect both west side story and in the heights to do well at the globes).
I don’t think the Oscars will shy away from movies with social messages, just movies in politics. I doubt they’ll want to reward a movie about a democratic convention in chaos, when we’re quite likely to have our own democratic convention in chaos this year.
As far as musicals go, I don’t think any of them will be strong enough to win this year. In The Heights is being released too early, especially for a musical. Too much time for people to get annoyed by the music if it’s a hit.
And West Side Story is a remake of an Oscar winning film. It’ll get nominated because it’s Spielberg, but remakes seem to be very limited when it comes to wins. I am curious to find out why Spielberg chose this project though. Does he just want to try out the musical genre with a classic musical or does he have a great idea to sort of reinvent the film for a 21st century audience?February 24, 2020 at 7:29 pm #1203359316
This year is going to be overwhelming political with the 2020 election and by the end of the year voters will be tired of all things politics, including films. Which is why I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 will largely be ignored, even if it is a great film. It seems to take place in the world of politics, which is going to be the last thing the voters want to watch.February 23, 2020 at 9:42 pm #1203358153
Last Night in SOHo strikes me as the cool/loved film that only gets a screenplay nod come Oscar morning a la “Knives Out” “The Lobster” and “Nightcrawler”. If it pops up anywhere else, it’ll be in costume design, since the story takes place in the 1960s London Fashion world.January 31, 2020 at 12:09 am #1203321172
2010: Blue Valentine
2011: We Need to Talk About Kevin
2012: End of Watch
Runner-up: Cabin in the Woods
2013: Inside Llewyn Davis
Runner-up: The Wolf of Wallstreet
Runner-up: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Son of Saul
2017: Good Time
Runner-up: Get Out
Runner-up: The Favourite
Runner-up: Uncut GemsMarch 10, 2019 at 10:20 pm #1202811791
2000: Jennifer Connelly, Requiem for a Dream – One of the best films of the new millennium, Connelly perfectly captures the desperation of an addict.
2001: Marisa Tomei, In The Bedroom – Such a depressing movie (my favorite kind) with great performances from everyone. Marisa has tons of big scenes and she nails them all.
2002: Maribel Verdú, Y Tu Mamá También – Embodies the sexiness and the tragedy so perfectly well.
2003: Holly Hunter, Thirteen – Honestly one of the weaker years for supporting actress, but she’s stilly really good nonetheless.
2004: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator – Best Actress still working today, hands down. This role just shows us why.
2005: Amy Adams, Junebug – She’s given so many great performances over the years, but her first Oscar nominated role is the one she should have won for.
2006: Adriana Barraza, Babel – In a film filled with memorable performances and movie stars, she’s the one that I remember long after the film ended.
2007: Saiorse Ronan, Atonement – Pretty incredible how she gave this performance at the age of 13. Really glad she’s further reenforced her acting abilities over the years.
2008: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona – Actually just saw this film for the first time a couple of weeks ago. She stole every scene she was in.
2009: Mo’Nique, Precious – There’s a reason why she’s often cited as one of the best winners in the category.
2010: Mila Kunis, Black Swan – Really surprised at her snub by the academy. She was the glue that made Black Swan work.
2011: Carey Mulligan, Shame – Mulligan is so underrated. Her New York, New York relayed so much character history through sheer performance.
2012: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables – I don’t get the Hathaway hate. Yeah she was thirsty for that Oscar, but she also deserved it. She was in the film for like 15 minutes in the beginning and she still managed to be the most talked about aspect of the film.
2013: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave – Such a raw performance, especially for her first feature film role.
2014: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood – For her final scene, Patricia channelled the spirit of every Mother (including my own) who was heartbroken to see their kid off to college.
2015: Cynthia Nixon, James White – A bit baity of a role (mom with cancer) but she was heartbreaking so…
2016: Naomi Harris, Moonlight – The film had tremendous performances all around. Naomi really nailed her arc in a believable way.
2017: Tiffany Haddish, Girl’s Trip – Also really liked Metcalf, but I honestly can’t remember the last time Ive laughed as hard as when I saw the Grapefruit scene for the first time.
2018: Rachel McAdams, Disobedience – The movie can be a bit slow, but McAdams (and Alessandro Nivolo) blew me away. I could feel every complicated emotion she was feeling.