Forum Replies Created
March 17, 2020 at 10:41 am #1203384367
Tom Hanks becoming the first Big Star to be infected with COVID-19 might put him at the forefront of voters minds. After so many years of ignoring him, voters might feel guilty of taking him for granted. Especially when we could have lost him.February 27, 2020 at 9:35 pm #1203363292
Black director seems likeliest. I would add “two or more women nominated in Director in the same year” and “a director wins for a comic book film”. (I don’t think a comic book film can win on a preferential ballot, but I think one with a ton of passion could take director)February 27, 2020 at 6:37 pm #1203363146
I’ve only recently heard of Next Goal Wins and already I’m pretty excited. I don’t think it’ll get as far as Jojo did, but it should do fairly well. I think Fassbender might be the most likely shot, as the more lighthearted good guy role could be seen as him breaking typecasting (not to mention the overdue narrative he’s accumulated over the decade). I can’t say anything on Moss and Hammer without knowing the roles they play, although the former could develop an exposure narrative thanks to Shirley’s and The Invisible Man’s good reviews and The French Dispatch most definitely following suit. I am very curious, though, how they will treat Kaimana. The Academy will probably give Kaimana a nomination for #OscarsSoWhite ‘s sake, but here’s the thing: Kaimana is a fa’afafine, basically the Samoan version of a non-binary person. Of course, the Academy has never nominated a non-binary person before, and while the real-life person they’re playing apparently goes by female pronouns, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy will find itself in a rut on where to put them.
This type of question has come up before in television. The Emmy’s allowed Non-binary Actor Asia Kate Dillon to choose the category for which their role (for Billions) would be submitted. They chose Actor because the term is gender-neutral. They weren’t nominated though.
The Academy could do the same thing. It’s the safest route to take, I believe. Though, it will probably result in third-rate conservative actors trying to submit themselves to best actress “to own the libs”.February 25, 2020 at 10:34 am #1203359945
So ideal time for musicals to break out? Though that’s what they said when La La Land was gaining steam and we saw what happened.
Exactly. It swept the globes and won the best film at baftas (and won other awards im forgetting). The oscars went with a movie that has an strong social message. Im a fan of musicals and I would love to see another one win. Im just not sure this is the year for it (I do expect both west side story and in the heights to do well at the globes).
I don’t think the Oscars will shy away from movies with social messages, just movies in politics. I doubt they’ll want to reward a movie about a democratic convention in chaos, when we’re quite likely to have our own democratic convention in chaos this year.
As far as musicals go, I don’t think any of them will be strong enough to win this year. In The Heights is being released too early, especially for a musical. Too much time for people to get annoyed by the music if it’s a hit.
And West Side Story is a remake of an Oscar winning film. It’ll get nominated because it’s Spielberg, but remakes seem to be very limited when it comes to wins. I am curious to find out why Spielberg chose this project though. Does he just want to try out the musical genre with a classic musical or does he have a great idea to sort of reinvent the film for a 21st century audience?February 24, 2020 at 7:29 pm #1203359316
This year is going to be overwhelming political with the 2020 election and by the end of the year voters will be tired of all things politics, including films. Which is why I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 will largely be ignored, even if it is a great film. It seems to take place in the world of politics, which is going to be the last thing the voters want to watch.February 23, 2020 at 9:42 pm #1203358153
Last Night in SOHo strikes me as the cool/loved film that only gets a screenplay nod come Oscar morning a la “Knives Out” “The Lobster” and “Nightcrawler”. If it pops up anywhere else, it’ll be in costume design, since the story takes place in the 1960s London Fashion world.February 17, 2020 at 9:57 am #1203349565
Could Untitled Fred Hampton Project be a contender? Used to be called Jesus Is My Homeboy. Seems like great roles for Lakeith Stanfield in Lead and Daniel Kaluuya in Supporting.
“Shaka King is directing the story that follows the rise and demise of Hampton as seen through the eyes of William O’Neal, a criminal who cut a deal with the FBI to infiltrate the Panthers. O’Neal helped create rifts within the organization, kept tabs on Hampton and, when the time came, drugged the 21-year old activist on the night of the raid, which ultimately saw officers gun him down.”
Very possible it’ll be this year’s Queen & Slim though and get decent box office but no awards love.
I’ve been considering it. The story of Fred Hampton is primed for a film adaptation and I think showing the film through the eyes of William O’Neil is a great choice. Also, the talent in front of the camera seems legit. However, I try to make my early predictions based on who’s behind the camera, which is where my hesitation comes in.
Shaka King has done some TV (Shrill; High Maintenance) and a film called “Newlyweeds”. None of which inspires much confidence. Will Berson, Shaka’s cowriter, also has an IMDB that’s lacking. Mainly TV, and nothing in over a decade.
There does seem to be some confidence in the project though. Charles King is one of the Producers, and he’s been attached to quite a few Oscar contenders and critically acclaimed films in the last few years (Fences; Mudbound; Sorry to Bother You). Also, Sean Bobbit is the cinematographer, and he’s wildly overdue for an Oscar Nomination (12 Years a Slave; Shame; The Place Beyond the Pines).
I think I might predict it for a few categories. Daniel Kaluuya and cinematography. Maybe Lakeith Stanfield and screenplay. Fred Hampton deserves a great film, so hopefully it turns out well, but I am slightly pessimistic.February 8, 2020 at 4:18 am #1203334616
Finally saw 1917. Biggest takeaway is it has a serious shot at production design, if voters can resist their Hollywood nostalgia. It must have been a tremendous undertaking to create the trenches and war torn buildings. I’m still going with OUATH, but that’s because I have very little faith in the academy.February 5, 2020 at 10:05 pm #1203332231
2000: Requiem for a Dream
Runner-up: American Psycho
2001: Donnie Darko
Runner-up: Monster’s, Inc.
Runner-up: The Pianist
2003: City of God
2004: The Incredibles
Runner-up: Survive Style +5
2005: Brokeback Mountain
Runner-up: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
2006: United 93
Runner-up: The Prestige
2007: The Orphanage
Runner-up: Into the Wild
2008: Dear Zachary
Runner-up: The Dark Knight
Runner-up: Fantastic Mr. FoxFebruary 5, 2020 at 9:44 pm #1203332219
1. Blue Valentine (2010)
2. Moonlight (2016)
3. Parasite (2019)
4. Whiplash (2014)
5. Hereditary (2018)
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014)
7. We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)
8. Good Time (2017)
9. Son of Saul (2015)
10. Uncut Gems (2019)
Honorable Mentions: Inside Llewyn Davis (2013); Get Out (2017); The Favourite (2018); The Wolf of Wallstreet (2013); Spotlight (2015)February 5, 2020 at 7:45 pm #1203332103
I’m teeter tottering between Toy Story 4, Klaus, and HTTYD 3 for Animated Feature. Toy Story 4 won CC and PGA, but Klaus shocked with BAFTA and Annies. Not to mention, there has yet to be a film franchise that has more than one film win (though Toy Story is the golden boy when it comes to animated franchises, so that could change). Last year, Glenn lost due to Olivia getting a GG statue and BAFTA, so something similar could happen with Klaus or HTTYD 3 (for those of you wondering why I’m still considering the latter, it has that overdue factor AND it’s the Oscar’s last chance to award the franchise).
Unpopular Opinion Time: I’d be disappointed if Klaus won. It’s the second weakest film in the category, behind Missing Link. I will say that the animation is beautiful and the concept and how they execute it is pretty cool, but its story is pretty predictable and doesn’t offer anything new.
This category reminds me a lot of the Visual Effects Category from the 2015 Oscars when Ex Machina upset. With no clear frontrunner, there’s ripe for a surprise. I’m hoping vote splitting allows the “Little Indie That Could” to prevail again and I Lost My Body wins.February 4, 2020 at 1:05 pm #1203329830
I Lost My Body in Animated Feature.
Parasite in Production Design.January 31, 2020 at 12:09 am #1203321172
2010: Blue Valentine
2011: We Need to Talk About Kevin
2012: End of Watch
Runner-up: Cabin in the Woods
2013: Inside Llewyn Davis
Runner-up: The Wolf of Wallstreet
Runner-up: The Grand Budapest Hotel
2015: Son of Saul
2017: Good Time
Runner-up: Get Out
Runner-up: The Favourite
Runner-up: Uncut GemsJanuary 28, 2020 at 10:09 pm #1203317821
Predicting 1917 over Joker in Score is pretty foolish in my opinion. The last film to lose after wining both the Globe and Critic’s Choice was First Man, which wasn’t even nominated. And Joker has the most nominations at BAFTA, so it’s not walking away with just Actor. It will win Score as well. Same thing goes for the Oscars: the last film to win less than 2 Oscars with as many nominations as Joker (11, not 10, so don’t you dare mention American Hustle or Gangs of New York!) was The Color Purple. With every major precursor on its side, and the most nominations, Joker will win at least Actor and Score, probably upsetting in Makeup as well.
Another thing: Thomas Newman has scored a Best Picture winner before: American Beauty, which also had the most wins, and still didn’t win. So even if 1917 wins Best Picture and gets 7+ wins, there’s no guarantee that Newman will be swept up in the momentum. If anything, I think it’s more likely the Oscars will try to spread the wealth, and only give 1917 6 wins like Fury Road and La La Land, even if it wins Picture.
I agree. Score doesn’t seem likely despite Thomas Newman being overdue. But 1917 can still rack up a pretty high count. Currently I’d rank the chances of winning:
3. Sound Editing
4. Sound Mixing
6. Visual Effects
7. Production Design
9. Makeup and Hairstyling
Never Going to Happen
10. Original Screenplay
5-7 seems to be the wheelhouse if 1917 is going to take picture.