2018 Oscar smackdown: Now that we know the nominees, what will WIN?

“Okay Oscar nuts, the nominations are out and 8,700 people predicted them at Gold Derby!” declares editor-in-chief Tom O’Neil during our 2018 Oscar predictions smackdown. With a top score of 83.61% accuracy, executive editor Paul Sheehan trounced all others by taking the #1 position on the Oscar nominations leaderboard. How’d he do so well in predicting those shocking surprises and unforgivable snubs, and what’s out front to win Best Picture? Tom and Paul join managing editor Chris Beachum and senior editors Marcus James Dixon, Daniel Montgomery and Joyce Eng to discuss the state of the race. Watch the video slugfest above or listen to the audio podcast version down below.

Paul cites two major factors in helping him to top our leaderboard. “I spend so much time writing about the guilds, [which are] representative of the branches of the academy. So if a picture is doing well with the sound editors, it’s probably going to get into sound editing, and things like that.” He continues, “[My other] secret weapon is our All-Stars, the people that have done so well at Gold Derby in last couple of years. They have this great success rate [so I] look to the people at Gold Derby that have done well.”

SEE 2018 Oscar nominations: Full list of Academy Awards nominees in all 24 categories

As for what will win this Best Picture battle for the ages, Marcus reminds us, “One thing to remember is that ‘The Shape of Water’ is following the exact same trajectory as ‘La La Land’ last year. Most Oscar nominations. SAG Ensemble snub. Critics’ Choice win. PGA win. So why are people picking ‘Shape of Water’ knowing what happened last year with ‘La La Land’? It really worries me. The only difference that I can think of is that there was this huge backlash for ‘La La Land.’ There is no backlash whatsoever for ‘Shape of Water.’ Everybody likes or loves this film.”

Daniel chimes in to debate the chances of “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which missed a key nomination for director Martin McDonagh. “Up until now, ‘Three Billboards’ was the only film that hadn’t missed anything it needed until just this moment. So [now] everything’s missing something.”

Comparing McDonagh’s directing snub to the Ben Affleck snub that helped push “Argo” (2012) to a Best Picture triumph, Eng remarks, “‘Three Billboards’ is not ‘Argo,’ it’s not beloved. Martin McDonagh is not Ben Affleck. It doesn’t have the same kind of pull.”

“I have no clue” what will win Best Original Screenplay, Chris readily admits about one of the year’s toughest races. “For almost all of them, their directors/writers are up for the writing and they’re all in the Best Picture conversation, so I honestly don’t know. Will people rally around Martin McDonagh because he was snubbed in Best Director?”

6 thoughts on “2018 Oscar smackdown: Now that we know the nominees, what will WIN?”

  1. You guys are all forgetting: 3 Billboards was NOT nominated for Best Film and Best Director at the Indie Spirits!

    Lady Bird still has a chance: it will get lots of 2nd and 3rd place votes. There are 3 films that can win, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and 3 Billboards. I actually have Shape, Lady Bird and 3 Billboards as my top 3 in the predictions center, in that order. Preferential ballots will hopefully end 3 Billboards chances.

    1. In my opinion, Lady Bird, while it is a solid film, it’s my least favorite of the nine. I just felt that there were details of that movie that felt incomplete. While I acknowledge the possibility of it winning, I would be kind of pissed if it did. It’s a solid movie, but there are plenty of others nominated that are better.

  2. Ladybird isn’t winning sweet fack all …the most overrated movie of the year ..most voters are over 50 white guys …they”ll not be interested in a lightweight , teenage ”chic flic”

  3. SHAPE is not like LLL ., which was the long time favourite …SHAPE has been operating under the radar until recently and was never a favourite , but it has suddenly gained momentum and is now the bookies favourite due to the weight of money suddenly bet on it !
    Shape has a political message , LLL didn’t …it was the very blandness of LLL that lost it support …the pref ballot is much more conducive to SHAPE than 3 Bills ..it can win by default with mild , but broad support, instead of the very popular, but narrow support of 3 Bills

  4. British actors love 3 Bills , it’ll win BAFTA …the clue is the fact that there are two actors from 3 Bills wedged into the BSA category (like it was with SAG) while they booted Jenkins from SHAPE for Hugh Grant in ”Paddington” !…the two BSA noms shows the strength of 3 Bills IMHO

  5. I agree with Tom that the lead acting categories are more locked in than the supporting acting ones. Though in my opinion, I think all the SAG winners will repeat at the Oscars this year. I’m really excited to see Gary Oldman win this March, he deserves it more than any other nominee in any category this year for that mind blowing performance in Darkest Hour!

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UPLOADED Jan 23, 2018 11:44 am