2023 Oscar predictions: Pete Hammond, Anne Thompson, Tom O’Neil, Wilson Morales

The hardest time to stick out your neck to make Oscar predictions is right before the big precursor prizes are bestowed like the Directors Guild Awards (Feb. 18 – that’s this Saturday), BAFTA (this Sunday the 19th), Producers Guild (Feb. 23) and the Screen Actors Guild (26), which frequently tattle on who the Oscar frontrunners are. But this pre-guild time doesn’t intimidate our four Oscar pundits: Pete Hammond (Deadline), Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Wilson Morales (Black Film and TV) and me.

Watch our video slugfest above and see how we believe the top races will play out. Currently, the most people making predictions at Gold Derby (more than 4,000 people) are betting overwhelmingly on “Everything Everywhere All at Once” to prevail as Best Picture, but that doesn’t mean we should dismiss the chances of its closest rivals “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “The Fabelmans,” “Top Gun: Maverick” … or others, for that’s sake. Victory, let’s recall, is determined by the academy’s preferential ballot, which is based upon a ranking system that could bypass the film with the most number-one voter in favor of a rival with the most second- or third-ranked votes.